by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 9: 10 - 5 - 1 - 3
RACE 3: TASS (#1)
Morelikelythannot finished just ahead of Tass when they met in that Sept. 14 allowance race. However, the positions certainly would have been reversed had Tass found a clear path in the final eighth of a mile. Kendrick Carmouche had worked out a good ground-saving trip for her up until the quarter pole, but he could not get outside of the two leaders in the lane. Tass obviously had some run, but she got locked in by the eventual winner Connectivity and was forced to steady repeatedly through the final sixteenth. This filly has drawn an inside post position once again, and she figures to be tough if she puts forth a similar effort. Furthermore, her trainer, Chuck Lawrence, is 6 for 28 (21%, $2.17 ROI) with horses trying Lasix for the first time over five years. I strongly prefer her to Morelikelythannot, who has had plenty of chances at relatively short prices and is likely to attract support once again merely due to the fact that she’s trained by Chad Brown. I would also give a look to some of the other contenders who figures to be among the short prices. Summer Squeeze ran very well against New York-bred company last time and might have won that race had she been able to save any ground. Codrington also ran well in her prior start, though that race became a bit softer when the heavy favorite Curluck failed to show up with a top effort. I’m using them, but I just believe that Tass has more upside.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,7
RACE 4: PRINCE OF PHAROAHS (#4)
Jack of Clubs is a NY-bred who was ambitiously spotted against open company for his Monmouth debut last time. He set an honest pace, and just got overhauled by his more fancied stablemate in that spot. This son of top stamina influence Curlin should be fitter for his second attempt at a mile and he’s got a pedigree to be excel in route races like this. His main rival based on dirt form appears to be Tapizearance, who attempts to stretch out for the first time. This horse raced greenly in his debut, but took a big step forward in August, checking in second behind Three Jokers, who returned to finish second by a head in the Bertram F. Bongard. Furthermore, the last-out runner-up Dream Bigger returned to win a stakes at Finger Lakes. This son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Tapizar has enough pedigree to handle the distance, and I won’t be surprised if he handles it. However, you have to be somewhat concerned about this barn’s poor record at the meet. I’m taking a shot with second-time starter Prince of Pharoahs, who figures to be a better price. This son of leading first-crop sire American Pharoah didn’t attract much tote support in the turf debut and was one-paced throughout. The dam earned both of her victories at this one-mile distance on dirt and has produced three-time dirt route winner Candy Cane Lane. The dam is also a half-sister to Grade 1-placed router Taste Like Candy. Most importantly, Linda Rice is 13 for 33 (39%, $3.91 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt in their second starts over five years. This colt looks to be placed appropriately and seems likely to step forward with the added ground.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6
RACE 5: MEMORIES OF PETER (#7)
Classic Covey should go off as the favorite here after giving a good account of himself in his return effort last month. That was his first start in nearly a year and he showed that he’s still capable of earning a speed figure that makes him competitive at this level. However, he did receive an extremely fast pace to close into and he never seemed to really produce a turn of foot as he just plodded along for a minor award. I still believe he’s better going longer distances than this, and he’s not going to get nearly as much pace to close into this time. The others who figure to attract support don’t do a whole lot for me. Bird’s Eye View typically shows up with a solid effort, but he rarely wins. Applicator has earned competitive numbers in cheaper spots and has to handle the rise in class. I’m using them, but I want to look outside the box here. Memories of Peter is coming off a poor effort in the Ashley T. Cole last time, but he was 21-1 that day, as he’s just overmatched against the top New York-breds on the circuit. Now he’s getting some class relief as he drops back down to the level at which he competed two back at Saratoga. He actually was pretty competitive that day, finishing a close fourth while earning a TimeformUS Speed Figure of 113, a repeat of which puts him squarely in the mix here. That race has come up strong, since Frontier Market returned to just miss in a Grade 3 at Laurel and third-place finisher Gemonteer beat Bird’s Eye View at Kentucky Downs last time. Memories of Peter has historically been better going longer, but he handled a shorter trip two back. He should be up close early in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners. It also doesn’t hurt to have Irad Ortiz taking over the mount.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 7: RED KNIGHT (#3)
Todd Pletcher has two strong contenders in this Point of Entry Stakes. If he elects to run Noble Indy here rather than in Monday’s Knickerbocker, this gelding might be the favorite. His career has really turned around since they switched him to turf this year, and he picked up his first victory on this surface last time over some runners with stakes form. This race doesn’t feature any confirmed front-runners, so his speedy style figures to make him a major wire-to-wire threat. However, he will be stretching out to 1 1/2 miles for the first time since the 2018 Belmont Stakes, and he’ll be trying the longest distance he’s every attempted on the turf. While he doesn’t strike me as your quintessential turf marathoner, he could be pretty dangerous if he backs down the pace and it turns into a sprint to the wire, as was the case in that optional claiming score last time. I’m using him defensively, but I’d rather not take a horse at a short price who’s trying something for the first time. Pletcher’s other runner, Pillar Mountain, needs to improve a bit to earn his first stakes victory, but this seems like a good spot for him. He was simply overmatched in the Sword Dancer and Kentucky Turf Cup in his last two starts as the runner-ups in each of those races returned to photo for the win in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last week. My only concern with Pillar Mountain is that he’s a bit of a plodder and he’s not going to get any pace ahead of him to set up that late run. I’m going to give Red Knight one more chance on the stretch-out. I took a shot with him in the Ashley T. Cole last time, but acknowledged that the distance might be a little short of his best trip. Now he’s stretching out to 1 1/2 miles, and he put forth a graded stakes-level performance going this distance in the Elkhorn back in April. While his recent form leaves something to be desired, the trips didn’t work out for him in either the Belmont Gold Cup or the Bowling Green. If Junior Alvarado can get him to settle today, I think he’s dangerous.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 8: CARTHON (#3)
There are two major contenders in this spot who are stepping up out of wins at the N1X level. Both I Love Jaxson and Doups Point figure to attract support given those recent victories, but I’m somewhat skeptical about them stepping up in class. Doups Point is perhaps the more trustworthy of the pair, since he earned that win over a fast track similar to the one he should encounter on Sunday. However, he had to work awfully hard to put away an inferior rival in what was not the most visually impressive score. I Love Jaxson did win quite convincingly in that Sep. 6 allowance, but he, too, was facing a much weaker field, and he seemed to really relish the sloppy, sealed going. I prefer the horses that have proven themselves at this level, and I just think Carthon makes the most sense of those. There was nothing wrong with his return race last time, as Eric Cancel had no choice but to send him to the lead once others decided not to go. The pace was honest and Carthon just got a little tired at the end while run down by two good horses. He figures to step forward second off the layoff, and he wouldn’t have to improve by much to beat this group, even if the two aforementioned runners repeat their last efforts. Furthermore, the slight turnback to a mile should actually benefit Carthon, since he ran well going this distance last winter and earned an impressive win going this trip in December. I’ll use him over Storm Prophet, who isn’t really a winning type, but does have a right to improve as he’s claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez. He is one of the classier runners in this field, but he often settles for a minor award.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2 with ALL
RACE 9: TEMPERANCE (#10)
I’m not particularly fond of Shannon’s Girl, who is the known quantity at this class level. She’s had her chances to break through and has just finished second in three consecutive starts, twice at odds of less than 2-1. It’s not as if she’s shown much improvement for the Brad Cox barn, but she’s going to attract money once again due to those connections. I’ll use her defensively, but this race has arguably come up tougher than some recent spots she’s contested. Erin More is an intriguing class dropper after facing much better maiden special weight fields. She’s been a massive disappointment after getting touted at Saratoga this summer, but she might have finally found the right spot. However, there are a couple of new faces in this lineup that I want to consider. One of those is Perfect Kind, who is turning back on the turf for Graham Motion. This filly has only tried sprinting on grass once in her career, and that came in her 2018 debut at Saratoga. She was a bit sluggish early, but closed willingly through the lane to only be beaten by future Grade 1 winner Concrete Rose and the talented turf sprinter Introduced. For whatever reason, Motion hasn’t sprinted her on turf in 7 subsequent starts, and now he’s dropping her in for a tag as she tries it again. It’s possible that she may want to go even shorter than this 7 furlong distance, but at least this seems closer to her ideal trip. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Temperance. This filly actually also debuted in that Concrete Rose debut race at the Spa, but she didn’t run quite as well as Perfect Kind. Something went amiss after that, as she didn’t start for 10 months. She returned at Monmouth this summer, and has steadily progressed, earning a couple of TimeformUS Speed Figures in the high-90s, among the best numbers in this race. The winner of her last, Atomic Blonde, validated that form by returning to win an allowance at Belmont earlier in the week. She’s a daughter of The Factor out of an 8-time sprint-winning dam, so I don’t mind this turnback at all. I actually think 7 furlongs might be the perfect distance for her. Furthermore, she has the tactical speed to get a forward position in a race where many of her main rivals are closers.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,4,5,7