by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 6 - 4 - 1A
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 8 - 9 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 10 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 9 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 8 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 5 - 11
RACE 5: BANK NOTE (#1)
This race is quite the guessing game. None of the horses with experience have distinguished themselves and the first time starters don’t look all that appealing. I suppose the horse to beat is Grammi Dance, who actually ran a decent race in his debut. Both he and Six Brothers contested the pace in that Aug. 30 affair before fading together through the lane. They came back in the same Sep. 19 maiden race and both failed to show up. Grammi Dance did more running as he again was up close to a fast pace and just faded in the last quarter mile while lugging in badly. He’s shown that tendency in both career starts, which is troublesome. Six Brothers’ effort was more puzzling, as he didn’t even show the early speed that he had flashed first time out. I have trouble taking both of these horses. Of the firsters, Get Along seems well-meant as a $60,000 yearling purchase, but his pedigree is geared more towards dirt routes on the dam’s side. Cartayon and Tell You What debut for capable debut trainers, but I get the sense that neither one has much ability. I think this is a race where you’re supposed to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Bank Note. Unlike some others that are dropping out of New York-bred maiden special weight races, this horse actually debuted against open company at Parx. It seems like he was actually facing a strong field that day, since the final time of his race was almost a full 2 seconds faster than the other division of the same race that day. The winner looks bound for stakes, so it’s no surprise that the field was so strung out across the wire. Bank Note didn’t break that alertly, but he rushed up and was in contention for about 3 furlongs before fading. He figures to move forward off that performance and it’s not as if he needs to improve that much to compete here. These low-profile connections should ensure that he’s a square price.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,8,10
RACE 7: BYSELF (#1)
Byself and Fair Regis figure to vie for favoritism in this spot. At first glance, it appears that Fair Regis is faster, but I actually prefer Byself in this race if they are indeed similar prices. Byself ran deceptively well last time. She broke with the field but Jose Ortiz did not ride her for position and she ended up getting shuffled back to last in the first quarter mile. Considering that she had never run from that position before, I thought she actually ran well to make a mid-race move and reach contention at the top of the stretch. From there she just couldn’t quite get to Satisfy, who had worked out a perfect trip, but she nevertheless gamely chased her all the way to the wire while creating plenty of separation behind her. This time Byself figures to slot into a better trip just in behind Noble Freud, as there is less speed in this field. She’s been unfortunately to face horses as talented as Hay Field and Satsify in her two prior starts at this level and I think she’s ready to break through here. Fair Regis is as consistent as they come, but she’s been facing slightly weaker company in her recent starts. Her last race earned a fast speed figure, but horses like Out of Orbit and Starlite Mission would not be very formidable in this race. Noble Freud is also a danger on the front end, but I worry about her getting the 7 furlong distance.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2 with 3,4,5,7
RACE 8: JUST HOWARD (#8)
I’m hardly against the likely favorite, Hello Don Julio. It’s hard to know what to make of his Laurel Turf Cup victory last time since that was not the toughest field and more than a few horses did not take to the yielding going. On the other hand, he at least proved that he can handle give in the ground, and the 12-furlong distance was not a major issue. He’s the most likely winner, but he doesn’t excite me at a short price. Patterson Cross seems like his primary competition as he gets some class relief dropping out of the Grade 1 Northern Dancer. He lost that race by just more than a length, but he was never a serious threat while just grinding away through the lane. He’s a danger here given his ample stamina and overall class, but I don’t get the sense that he has a strong will to win. The condition of the Widener turf course following rain earlier in the week could even the playing field. If it is truly yielding, I think Just Howard has a chance to upset this field since he showed that he performs well over truly boggy ground at Laurel last year. He’s never raced beyond 1 3/16 miles, but he has some pedigree to handle more distance as a son of English Channel. Watching his races, he looks like he would be well suited to added ground since he has the speed to race up close to Hello Don Julio early and he usually finds more when under pressure. His solid effort at a price in the Arlington Handicap suggests he may be classy enough to compete against the favorites.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,7