PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   9 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   9 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 10 - 9 - 1
Race 6:   13 - 5 - 7 - 10
Race 7:   11 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   10 - 5 - 12 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: BRIMSTONE (#1)
Morning-line favorite Marriedtothemusic is the horse to beat, but I don’t want to take an especially short price on him. He was allowed to set a slow pace last time (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) and may face some pressure from runners to his inside. I’m trying to beat him with Brimstone, who is getting significant class relief after meeting much tougher fields recently. He had initially run very well off the claim by David Jacobson, and he’s had minor excuses in his last two efforts. They chose to rate him two back, which just didn’t work out, and then last time, he had to back up out of position early when outrun to the lead. He figures to be a more attractive price, and he’s talented enough to take down the favorite. I also have to use the closer West Hills Giant somewhere. He never wins, but he may work out a great trip here.

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,6,8

RACE 5: HOLLYWOOD CAT (#5)
Reckless Humor and Avery Maeve both make some sense here since they’ve previously run well at this level and are coming into this race off solid efforts. I’ll use them somewhere, but I’d rather take a new face at this level. Hollywood Cat improved significantly over the summer. She ran well to be third in a stakes at Saratoga behind the talented Lover’s Key and then stepped up to face older horses last time. That day, she became rank in the early going and ran up to duel between horses down the backstretch. She had a right to get tired late, and we saw third-place finisher Munchkin Money exit a similar trip to win turning back at Belmont. I think Hollywood Cat was meeting a tougher group last time and should be able to handle this shorter trip.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,9,10,11

RACE 6: DIG THAT MINE (#5)
With also-eligible entrant Smokin Platinum drawing into the field, he clearly becomes the horse to beat. I have no illusions that he is not a very likely winner of this race, but at a much bigger price, I also want to use Dig That Mine, who ships in from Parx. This colt’s debut was not quite as bad as it looks. He actually broke well and was up close early before losing his action and dropping back abruptly on the backstretch. Steve Klesaris has good numbers with second-time starters in dirt sprints, and this horse worked a good-looking furlong in 10 3/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton sale. He makes his first start against New York-breds here.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Box: 5,13
Trifecta: 13 with 3,6,7,10 with 5

RACE 7: LORD OF LOVE (#11)
Air Vice Marshal is obviously the deserving favorite off his runner-up effort behind Lucullun, who returned to finish a good second in the Grade 3 Hill Prince in his next start. Prior to that, he had run well at this distance behind another next-out stakes winner, White Flag. Air Vice Marshal is clearly talented, but he just hasn’t been able to get to the winner’s circle. I’ll certainly use him, but I can’t pick him on top. Portando ran well last time, dueling through swift early fractions and hanging on gamely late. However, now he must stretch out to seven furlongs and deal with the speedy Hardened early. I’m hoping the pace is at least honest because I think Lord of Love finds himself in a favorable spot. I know this 8-year-old gelding rarely wins, but he has always appreciated these late-season turf courses at Belmont and Aqueduct, which aren’t quite as firm as those he encounters in late spring and summer. After briefly having to alter course at the top of the stretch last time, he was really flying late. Seven furlongs is certainly within his scope, and he’s going to be an attractive price.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,6,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 11

RACE 8: GIANTINTHEMOONLITE (#1)
Mr. Buff is going to be tough to handle if he runs back to his return effort last month. He wasted no time getting right back to the same high level of performance that he had displayed in the spring at Aqueduct. He dueled through solid fractions last time and was very game, hanging on until the last jump. The Pace Projector is predicting that there isn’t much early speed in this race, which will work to Mr. Buff’s advantage. One horse whom I’m hoping is closer to that pace here is Giantinthemoonlite, who got a peculiar ride last time. He was not aggressively ridden early and was allowed to drop too far back early. He actually launched a solid rally but had to steady when going for a position between horses at the top of the stretch. Despite all that, he was actually finishing fastest of all across the wire. He ran very well two back at Saratoga, and it seems like Charlton Baker has this runner in top form.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6 with 2,3,4,6,7