by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 9 - 4 - 1 - 10
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 10 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 10: 7 - 4 - 11 - 1
RACE 4: BACCHANALIA (#6)
Coilean Bawn and In Front should vie for favoritism in this spot. The former took a significant step forward once she was stretched out in distance on the turf. Her stamina came through in that second-place finish to Romantic Pursuit in July, and that rival returned to run well in some stakes, picking up a Grade 2 placing in the Sands Point. I won’t hold the 6-5 loss at Kentucky Downs against her since she repeated her top speed figure. However, now she has to replicate those efforts over 1 1/8 miles and there are some rivals with more upside drawn to her outside. Main rival In Front didn’t take much money in her debut, but she gave a solid account of herself, chasing wide around the far turn before staying on in the lane to just miss third. That race’s third-place finisher Kelleycanrun returned to win and the top two finishers have shown talent. McGaughey runners often improve with racing and this filly also figures to appreciate added ground. The dam is a full-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician as well as 12-furlong stakes winner Apple Betty. I’m using them both, but my top pick is one of the Chad Brown trainees, Bacchanalia. This filly has had trouble putting races together, needing significant time between all of her starts. Princesa Carolina, who beat her in the debut, has turned out to be pretty nice, achieving a Grade 1 placing last week. Bacchanalia finished behind Coilean Bawn in her only other start, but she got very rank in the early stages that day, throwing her head about under restraint. She was also fairly green in the stretch, ducking out at the eighth pole. There’s obviously some talent here, and she can beat these if she runs a more professional race this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,7,8
RACE 5: SUPER SILVER (#5)
Jerome Avenue may go off as the favorite in this spot as he attempts to win right back off the claim for Steve Asmussen. He earned a strong 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure when holding off today’s rival Allured in that conditioned claimer last time, and a repeat of that performance would make him formidable. However, that race was run in the slop, as was his prior dirt starts. He’s a bit of a question mark on a fast track, especially considering his turf form and wet track-oriented pedigree. Furthermore, the Steve Asmussen barn under assistant Toby Sheets is just 7 for 46 (15%, $1.01 ROI) first off the claim at Belmont and Aqueduct on dirt over 5 years. Once you get past him, there are many alternatives to consider. A number of horses exit the ninth race on September 21, won by Dark Storm. Sargeant Drive did best that day, closing strongly to be second. Yet he’s often at the mercy of the pace and there doesn’t appear to be that much early speed in this field. Mental Model was setting the pace before fading that day as one of the short prices. He has a right to improve second off the layoff, but I’d rather go for a bigger price out of that spot. Super Silver didn’t work out the right trip in that Sep. 21 race, as his connections elected to rate him from an inside post position. He was subsequently shuffled to the back of the pack and was never able to mount a rally while in behind a wall of horses for much of the stretch drive. He had previously been more successful when allowed to use his tactical speed, and I would imagine that Kendrick Carmouche will place him much closer to the early pace on this occasion.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 7: LOCAL HERO (#8)
This is one of many very confusing races on this card. The two runners likely to take the most money are Siding Spring and Tusk, and I don’t have major problems with either of them. Yet, I also don’t completely trust anyone in this field, so I’m reticent to accept short prices on these two. Siding Spring is perhaps more trustworthy as he makes his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. I thought he ran pretty well in defeat last time, hanging on until deep stretch against a solid starter allowance field. If he merely repeats that effort, he’s going to be tough. However, the Pace Projector is predicting that he could face a fast pace this time with Tusk serving as a potential early challenger. Tusk’s running style has completely transformed for Jorge Navarro, to the point where he’s not a run-off speed type. If he hooks up with Siding Spring in the early going, it could set it up for one of the longshots. The problem is that the rest of this field is pretty difficult to separate. Morrison once would have been dangerous on this class drop, but his recent form is poor and Joe Sharp doesn’t have very strong numbers with horses dropping in for a tag for the first time. Lucky Ramsey would be a player if he can run as well as he did off the bench last time, but I’m concerned that a flat mile is a bit short of his best distance. I think this race could produce a wacky result, so I’m taking a shot with Local Hero, who might be the biggest price on the board. I thought this gelding ran pretty well when he won at Saratoga in July, beating a pair of next-out winners, one of which has returned to run much fast subsequently. Local Hero then got a less-than-ideal wide trip in that Aug. 3 affair and still only lost to Siding Spring by 2 lengths. He was claimed out of that spot by Dave Cannizzo and at first glance it might appear that his form has fallen apart for the new barn. However, I believe he’s just been placed in the wrong spots. He wanted no part of 11 furlongs two back and then last time he was asked to sprint on dirt. Furthermore, both of those races came at a much higher class level. Now he’s dropping down into a realistic spot at the perfect distance, and he gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario. I believe he’s going to outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4,7,10
RACE 9: SIMPLY BREATHLESS (#1)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Simply Breathless, who just appears to have found the right spot as she makes her New York debut for California trainer Neil Drysdale. West coast shippers are often overmatched when they ship east for major stakes, but this filly is catching an unusually weak field for a graded stakes event. She got a great trip to win the Wilshire at Santa Anita during the summer and she was just placed in some tougher spots after that. She couldn’t quite get the longer distance of the Modesty two back, but it turns out that losing to Juliet Foxtrot is no disgrace, considering that rival’s subsequent Grade 1 placings. Last time out at Kentucky Downs, Simply Breathless was racing over a course that had gotten very speed-favoring, and she was unable to reel in a couple of classy rivals. She didn’t get the smoothest trip through the stretch that day, as Geroux had to wait in traffic and tried to find room inside. I like this rider switch to Joel Rosario, who should be a perfect fit for this filly, and Drysdale’s runners tend to show up in these situations. Two of her main rivals are exiting an optional claiming race at Belmont on September 22. Sweet Bye and Bye was impressive in victory that day, but she got a very soft trip on the front end, setting very slow fractions before sprinting home. Victorine actually ran deceptively well in that spot, since she advanced outside and just couldn’t make up ground late into those sprint-like closing splits. I’d use both defensively, but I’m just not sure that either one possesses the quality to overtake a horse like Simply Breathless.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4,9
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,5,9
RACE 10: AMAZING ZERO (#7)
Corey Scores is going to be a heavy favorite in this finale and I don’t dispute that she’s the most likely winner. If she runs back to either of the speed figures she posted at Saratoga, she’s going to crush this field. However, her last race concerns me. She was chasing a moderate pace set by Winifred J and came up completely empty at the quarter pole. She was intended to do well that day as the 7-5 favorite and she threw in a clunker. I think it’s worth pointing out that she’s only run well going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, so I’m very worried that 7 furlongs might just be too far for her, especially after she faded going a furlong shorter last time. Once you get past her, this race is pretty wide-open among the alternatives. I’m taking a shot with Amazing Zero as she cuts back in distance. This filly ran deceptively well in her debut, as she overcame a slow start to rally well for third behind a couple of fillies who have gone on to do nice things in the last month. They tried stretching her out at the maiden special weight level last time and nothing went right. She broke slowly again, and this time she got very rank under Rajiv Maragh, tugging him up into the lead on the backstretch. She had nothing left at the quarter pole after that early move and he just let her fade through the pack. Now she’s dropping back down to the right class level and this 7-furlong distance should be more appropriate. If she can work out a decent trip this time, I think she’ll outperform her odds.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,11
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,2,6,9,11