by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 2: 9 - 2 - 1A - 10
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 16 - 8 - 15
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 8 - 1/1A - 7 - 6
Race 7: 9 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 9: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
RACE 5: BLUE ATLAS (#2)
Awsum Roar is going to be a significant favorite in this race, but I don’t completely trust her. If she runs back to her efforts from earlier in the year, she will easily beat this field. However, her last race is of great concern, since she did not show her customary early speed and gave it up readily. I’m skeptical of these Jason Servis horses that got good in the late spring and early summer, because his barn has definitely cooled off since then. Now she’s dropping in for a tag after another layoff, so I want to try to beat her. Enthusiastic Gal is another that figures to attract some support, and there’s an argument to be made that she’s among the most naturally talented horses in this race. However, she seems like a mare that wants every bit of a mile or more, so this turnback to six furlongs is perplexing. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Blue Atlas. I’ve never been this filly’s biggest fan, but she is finally getting some needed class relief on the turf. Her prior races this year against optional-claiming company were much tougher than this one, and she didn’t even run that badly on June 22. She’s run some of her best races at Belmont Park in the past and I think the 6- furlong distance is perfect for her. If Awsum Roar falls apart in the late stages, Blue Atlas could be sitting in the perfect position to capitalize.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,8
RACE 6: TRULY COURAGEOUS (#8)
Either member of the Michael Dubb entry can win this race, which is likely to result in the pair of them getting bet down to a very short price. I wouldn’t be thrilled with either of these runners as separate betting interests, so why should I support them as a coupled wagering interest? Samara has clearly run a number of races that would beat this field, but her last two turf efforts have been disappointing. She failed to show up first off the claim for Mike Maker back in June. She then made her first start off the claim for the always dangerous Jason Servis last time at Saratoga and she again failed to regain her top form. Now she’s had two months off and is dropping back in for a tag. Jazzy Juder actually ran extremely well in her return from the layoff back in June, as she launched an ill-advised premature move on the far turn before fading. She ran well within the context of her last race at Saratoga, but that has proven to be a weak field in retrospect. The two most logical alternatives to the entry are probably Bella’s Game and Shanghai Dreams. The former finally turns back to a sprint for capable connections after failed attempts to go longer. Shanghai Dreams actually ran quite well in her only turf start and now gets back on that surface for a top claiming barn. I’m using both of them, but the horse that I want to bet is Truly Courageous. While there is a fair amount of speed in this field, I agree with the TimeformUS Pace Projector that she is just faster than her rivals in the early stages and can secure a clear lead. That’s something she was not able to do last time when she contested a fast pace over a tiring course on Oct. 6. That race was dominated by closers, and Truly Courageous actually did quite well to hang on for fourth while finishing well ahead of her early pace foes. The Gary Contessa barn has been routinely improving horses at this meet, and she could be yet another runner heading for a breakthrough.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,6,7
RACE 8: PAS DE SOUCIS (#7)
Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this Athenia, since all three of his entrants have strong chances to win. New Money Honey is probably the horse to beat off her runner-up effort in the Canadian last time. The early pace of that race was pretty honest, and she did well to hang on for second in a race that otherwise fell apart late. She certainly ran better than stablemate Inflexibility, who had every chance to go by her in the stretch and could not make up any serious ground. I also prefer her to Rymska, who has been highly regarded throughout her time in the U.S., but badly disappointed in her August return at Saratoga. Looking back on her 3-year-old campaign, while she had been visually impressive in a number of races, the fields that she beat were relatively weak in retrospect. She’s also been hindered by layoffs throughout her career and it’s unclear if she has taken the necessary steps forward to compete against a field of this caliber. I’ll use her defensively, but I’m starting to think she may be overrated. Indian Blessing is another European import that should not be ignored. She actually ran deceptively well in her U.S. debut when closing into a slow pace in the Ballston Spa and she followed that up with another encouraging effort in the First Lady. That race also featured a slow pace that held together up front, and she did well to close from last. The main concern with her is that she usually breaks slowly and another moderate pace could work against her. The horse that I want to bet at what figures to be a square price is Pas de Soucis. I know she looks inferior to some of today’s rivals at first glance, but she’s actually been steadily improving for Jorge Abreu. She got too rank in the early stages of her return on May 24 and she came back with a very strong effort to be third in the Perfect Sting after making a wide, premature move on the far turn. I won’t hold her De La Rose against her, since Uni and Precieuse are just superior fillies. Then last time she never was given a fair chance in the Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Flavien Prat just always seemed to have her in the wrong spot, as she got shuffled back early and was stuck in traffic in upper stretch. She possesses the tactical speed to sit a good trip and I think she can spring the upset.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6,9
RACE 9: COMPETITIONOFIDEAS (#6)
This is a fairly competitive allowance race in which you can make cases for a number of contenders. That said, I’m not going to get too creative, as I just think that Competitionofideas may be too talented for her rivals. It’s fair to question the legitimacy of her last speed figure, as it came up unusually fast (90 Beyer and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure). Due to the fact that it’s such an outlier, so may be tempted to attribute that performance to the good turf course. However, I’d be hesitant to dismiss that performance as an aberration. This filly had actually hinted at possessing plenty of ability early in her career when she was a game second in her second start, and then overcame an impossible wide trip to be third at Saratoga. She finally got a favorable setup last time and she capitalized on it. Futhermore, she had shown a propensity to wait on other horses in those early races, and the addition of blinkers seemed to cure her of that hesitation last time. Both the second and third place finishers returned to win out of that race, and have at least validated the speed figures that they were assigned. Competitionofideas figures to sit a good trip stalking some cheap speed in the early going, and I get the sense that she may be too much for this group to handle right now. The other interesting horse to use is Chad Brown’s other filly, Filfila, since she did show plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. She was understandably no match for Rushing Fall or Daddy Is a Legend in her debut, but I actually liked her maiden win second time out at Aqueduct. From there, she encountered trouble in her only other start at Gulfstream and was sent to the sidelines. She needs to improve, but that’s certainly a possibility.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 3,6
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,5,7