by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 10 - 9 - 11
Race 7: 3 - 11 - 10 - 2
Race 8: 9 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 9 - 11 - 8 - 3
RACE 2: PERFECTEXPECTATION (#7)
The horse to beat is obviously News Anchor, who did not get the best of rides last time, to say the least. Joel Rosario got him into good position
early, saving ground in midpack. However, the early pace was fast (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs), and when the leaders started to back up
approaching the stretch, Rosario could not extricate News Anchor from his rail position, and he ended up getting shuffled back to nearly last at the
top of the stretch. Once Rosario got him into the clear at the three-sixteenths pole, News Anchor unleashed a strong rally to get up for third. It was a
solid effort, but it’s not as if he’s going to be any kind of generous price off that troubled trip. I actually prefer the horse who finished just ahead of
him last time. Perfectexpectation did not encounter any trouble during the race but did have a fairly taxing trip chasing that fast pace. The other
horses involved in the pace finished much farther back, and Perfectexpectation showed good courage to battle on for second. There doesn’t appear
to be much early speed in this race, and he could find himself right on top of a moderate pace.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,8
RACE 4: CULTURE CARRIER (#5)
Jahaafel is a deserving favorite, having run well in both of his starts, but has gotten absolutely perfect trips, so it’s not as if you can reasonably expect
significant improvement. He also must handle this stretch-out to 10 furlongs. I’ll use him, but I think a couple of others may offer better value.
Shahroze is an intriguing new face in this group. It’s hard to gauge his quality off his Irish form, but Graham Motion has fine numbers with these
types of runners. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 24 (25 percent, $2.37 ROI) with foreign shippers off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf routes.
He’s a half-brother to a two-time Group 2 winner at 10 furlongs on turf, so he's certainly bred to handle today’s conditions. He’s very much in my play,
but my top pick is Culture Carrier. I know it’s not a great sign that he was entered for a tag in his debut, but I like that his connections show
confidence for his second start after finishing a deceptively strong fourth in that race. He appeared to be green in the early stages, but he really got
on track late, finishing with great energy across the wire. I know it was only a $40,000 maiden claimer, but that was an awfully tough field for the
level. Horses like Krampus and Brianbakescookies would not be out of their element in this spot. This runner is bred to handle more distance, and
Chad Brown adds blinkers in hopes of getting him to focus.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8
RACE 6: TIFFANYS FREUD (#6)
This feels like a pretty wide-open race in which a few key players could end up going off at inflated prices. The runner likely to take the most money is High Jingo, and I do think she is the right favorite. She ran well to break her maiden two back at Saratoga, and then followed that up with a solid runner-up finish in her first start against winners. That said, she was able to secure the early lead and stay out of harm’s way in a race where others encountered significant trouble. I think this is a good spot to take a shot with a price, so I want to bet Tiffanys Freud out of her troubled trip in that same race. She’s typically a filly that prefers to be forwardly placed in her races, but she was squeezed back after the start last time, which left her out of position. She finally found some running room in the stretch, but got going too late before encountering traffic again right at the wire. This filly had really stepped up her game over the summer, and ran just as well as Swayed – who will be a much shorter price here – in a couple of starts at Saratoga.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,9,10,11
RACE 8: YUMMY BEAR (#9)
There is not much early speed signed on for this affair, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead. I
suppose that should work in favor of Speightful Kitten. Normally, I wouldn’t be a fan of a horse who took advantage of ideal circumstances when
beating a weaker field last time, but Linda Rice does have great numbers off wins. Over the past five years, she is 16 for 67 (24 percent, $2.22 ROI)
with last-out winners in turf sprints. Her other entrant, Whiskey Seven, also deserves consideration. He’s getting significant class relief after facing
tougher open-company fields in recent starts. I’ll use both of them, but my top pick is Yummy Bear. I actually don’t mind the turnback in distance for
this horse. I’ve always thought he was a little better going shorter distances. Seven furlongs is probably ideal, but I think he can handle six. Over the
past five years, David Donk is 7 for 37 (19 percent, $2.63 ROI) with turf turnbacks. Yummy Bear has significantly improved over the past two months,
and I think he’s a serious win candidate.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,7
RACE 9: SPECIAL TRIP (#9)
Chad Brown holds a strong hand in the finale. The horse to beat is Data Dependent, who has run well in both of her starts. She was green and
compromised in the early going of her debut but still finished well. She had a better trip last time but just couldn’t catch the longshot winner in a
race that featured a slow pace. Brown also sends out first-time starter Moi, a full sister to Grade 2-winning turfer Mrs. McDougal. Both of these
runners must be used, but I want to take a shot with Special Trip off the “special” trip that she got in her career debut. She was taken to the back of
the pack early and was somewhat rank while trying to advance around the far turn. She finally got outside to make her run in the stretch but was
shut off and clipped heels at the three-sixteenths pole. Despite that trouble, she still finished strongly to be beaten only three lengths. The added
distance is a concern, but I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this filly yet, and she figures to offer value.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,8,11