by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 11 - 10 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 8 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 10 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 11 - 10 - 8 - 9
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 4 - 8
RACE 1: RICHIE’SLILWILDCAT (#2)
Pure Praise comes into this off the best last-out performance, having finished a distant second to Proportionality on opening day of the meet. The winner dominated that race and none of her rivals did all that much running behind her. She makes her first start off the claim for Roy Lerman, whose only claim in the past 5 years was a winner. I’m using this filly, but she doesn’t do much for me as the favorite. Orchid Party and Gypsy Janie have run the fastest speed figures, but the recent performances by both are cause for some concern. Orchid Party was too close to a fast pace last time, but she really fell apart in dramatic fashion, and her overall career trajectory is tending downward. Gypsy Janie got a fast pace to close into last time, but she could never muster a rally against a field that she was supposed to beat. I’m using both, but I want to look for better value. I’m going to take another horse out of that Aug. 18 race that Gyspy Janie exits. Richie’slilwildcat is somewhat of a quitter, and she, too, comes into this race in questionable form. However, I can at least make some excuses for her recent efforts. She’s just not a turf horse, so her last race is inconsequential. And then two back she was chasing a fast pace after having to rush up in the first furlong. This filly had run faster speed figures for Larry Rivelli, and she’s proven that she relished moisture in the track. Gary Contessa has been having a fantastic meet, and Joel Rosario is the kind of rider than can nurse along a front-runner.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 5: FIERY OPAL (#2)
I found this to be one of the most interesting races on the card, as it features the return of the promising colt Blewitt. He flashed some serious ability during the last winter meet at Aqueduct, falling just a neck shy of going undefeated through three career starts. Todd Pletcher has fantastic numbers off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt routes (32 for 82, 39 percent, $2.63 ROI over five years), so this colt should be fit as he ships up from Florida. On the other hand, there are some very talented horses in this race who have run faster speed figures, and Pletcher has had a fairly disappointing meet. I’m slightly against him today. J J’s Dreaming is probably the horse to beat. He’s just been a different horse since April, having earned a series of very fast speed figures while hitting the exacta in four straight starts. He couldn’t quite get to the talented Aveenu Malcainu last time, but I thought he ran very well in defeat considering the moderate pace of that race. If he shows up, he’s going to be a handful. I’m using J J’s Dreaming prominently, but I’m most interested in Fiery Opal, who defeated him back in June. This horse did receive a pretty fast pace to close into that day, but I was nevertheless impressed with his relentless rally and powerful final furlong. The form of that race has only been flattered in subsequent months. J J’s Dreaming’s subsequent efforts are plain to see, while also-rans Honor Up and Discreet Mission would both go on to record improved speed figures in subsequent starts. It took this gelding a while to get back to the races following that win, but his connections are now trying to repeat the same pattern that led to that victory, as he runs back on 6 days’ rest following a race at Parx. While he didn’t run quite as fast in that Oct. 22 win, I like the tenacity he showed to rally in the final furlong after it appeared that he had run out of gas on the far turn.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6
Trifecta: 2 with 6 with 1,3,5
RACE 6: REGALIAN (#1)
Reed Kan may win this race at a very short price, but there are some serious questions surrounding this horse. Why would his connections drop him in for a $25,000 tag after he just won for $50,000 against a much tougher field with a career-best speed figure? Jason Servis knows how to play the claiming game, so one would imagine that he’s sending a clear signal by placing Reed Kan in this spot. He’s not a horse that you can just dismiss, but I’d be very wary of leaning too heavily on him. The last that he ran, I was interested in Regalian as an alternative, and that certainly didn’t work out so well. However, now Regalian is back in against him again, except in his case the drop in class actually makes sense. Reglalian is admittedly hard to recommend off that last performance, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in it. His rider never really rode him like he had a chance as he wasn’t hard-ridden at any point and was at the quarter pole. Something clearly went awry that day, but it’s a good sign that he’s back on short rest. Anything close to his prior form makes him a player in this race, and he clearly handles some moisture in the track. Furthermore, he figures to get an honest pace to close into this time, since Reed Kan is likely to face early pressure from Blinded Vision and Joopster.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
RACE 8: GOLDEN ATTITUDE (#11)
Chipolata is the horse to beat in this Zagora, but she doesn’t comes into this race with some questions to answer. It’s unlikely that the 3 1/2 month layoff since her last race was planned, so something may have gone wrong since that last start. This is not a particularly strong move for Christophe Clement. Over the past five years, he is just 1 for 22 (5%, $0.15 ROI) off 75 to 150 day layoffs in turf route non-graded stakes races. If she needs a start off the break, she could be in trouble. I’m using her, but there are definitely others to consider at more enticing prices. Chad Brown’s only entrant is Homeland Security, but I’m not thrilled with her chances, either. She had everything go her way when she won a weak edition of the River Memories two back, and she prefers firm turf, which she is unlikely to get here. Violet Blue had a tough trip in that River Memories, but I haven’t really loved either of her performances since then. I’m more interested in some new faces. My top selection is Golden Attitude, who takes a big leap in class after beating a weak optional claiming field at Delaware last time. That performance won’t be good enough, but she has a right to do a lot better this time. After all, that was her first outing in over 15 months, and she’s probably going to appreciate the stretch-out in distance. Racing in France early in her 3-year-old season, she was actually keeping some very good company in listed races, as she did not finish that far behind top U.S. turf filly Sistercharlie and recently Grade 1-placed Onthemoonagain. If she can get back to those efforts, I think she has a big chance to pull off the minor upset. At a much bigger price, I also want to use Queen of Connaught. She caught a boggy turf course that she clearly didn’t care for at Laurel last time, but her prior form in England was actually decent. If the turf isn’t too soft on Sunday, she could be a factor.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 8,9,10
RACE 9: YAMANO MAKER (#6)
The runners who have experience in this maiden race are not particularly compelling. The best of those appears to be American Rule, who has run fine in his two recent starts for Gary Contessa. However, I do get the sense that a solid performance by one of the first-time starters will be good enough to beat him. There are two intriguing colts making their debuts in this spot. The one that may attract the most attention is Tough Times. Mark Hennig has had a fantastic past year with his firsters, winning half of his 14 such runners on dirt, good for an ROI of $6.32. While Tough Times comes into this race with a flashy worktab, that is not atypical for the Hennig barn. Watching a few of his drills, he had to be ridden pretty hard to achieve those times, and he was working in blinkers. He’s bred to run longer, since his graded stakes-winning dam is a half-sister to Shackleford and Lady Joanne. I’m using him, but I wonder if he may need a race. I’m most interested in the intriguing Bill Mott firster Yamano Maker. This barn is known for success with 3-year-old fillies making their debuts in dirt sprints, but his numbers remain strong when you factor males into the sample (15 for 50, 30 percent, $4.68 ROI over 5 years). This Japanese-bred has a stellar pedigree. Sired by Empire Maker, he is a half-brother to UAE Derby runner-up Epicharis, as well as Japanese Group 3 turf winner Meisho Naruto. He’s obviously bred to route, but he, too, has shown some speed in his morning drills, which isn’t necessarily typical for a Bill Mott newcomer.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,7