by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 9 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 10: 4 - 6 - 5 - 2
RACE 4: LIMITED LIABILITY (#4)
That 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Annapolis earned for his debut may not leap off the page, but the way this colt did it highlights him as a 2-year-old with serious talent. That wasn’t a particularly fast pace, and he just swooped past runners at the quarter pole and opened up late with authority. The word was out on him, bet down to 6-5 off an impressive series of turf drills. And he’s worked well out of that race, most recently going in company with older stakes winner Always Shopping. Pletcher is 2 for 8 (25%, $2.21 ROI) with juvenile last-out debut winners making their second starts in turf routes over 5 years. Notably, Irad Ortiz abandons Portfolio Company to stay with Annapolis. Portfolio Company isn’t impossible here, but he has to overcome his headstrong nature. He was rank in his debut and then far too keen once again last time, tugging Irad forward around the first turn. I’m skeptical that he’ll suddenly change his temperament, but he does have ability. I’m most interested in another horse out of the With Anticipation. Limited Liability won his Spa debut like a good thing, rallying boldly from off the pace to win going away. There was some give in the ground that day and he clearly relished the going. He caught a much firmer course in the With Anticipation, a race that was run at a glacial early clip. It turned into a sprint for home and he just didn’t possess the finishing speed to get involved. He’s likely better than that, and now Shug McGaughey adds blinkers for his third start, probably hoping to elicit a bit more early speed. This barn gets them to improve gradually, and I’m expecting him to put forth a better effort this time.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,3
RACE 5: BLUE DEJA VU (#5)
There are a few horses dropping out of open company maiden special weight races who could take money in here and I’m somewhat skeptical of them all. Dream of a Day obviously faced a better field in his debut, but he didn’t do much running in that race. He’s a contender here based purely on the drop in class, but I didn’t want to pick him at a short price. Some may default to Tommy Bee due to his trouble line from last time, but he was going nowhere at the time that he ran into some traffic. That wasn’t a strong field at Ellis Park and I’m not sure he has much ability. Regal Empire is a little more interesting as he drops out of a New York-bred event. He was pretty keen heading into the first turn after breaking about a length slowly. He made a mild milddle move before flattening out and could do better here. My top pick is Blue Déjà vu, who stretches out in distance after sprinting in his debut. This looks like a horse who wants no part of 5 1/2 furlongs. He’s by stamina influence Big Blue Kitten out of a dam who won routing on turf. He had no speed that day but was staying on well at the end, and I think he’s going to show up with a better effort on the class drop.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7,9
RACE 6: ZOOMER (#4)
The scratch of morning-line favorite American Dubai changes this race quite a bit. Two Thirty Five could now inherit favoritism, though Mike Maker doesn’t have the greatest stats off the claim on dirt and I didn’t think this horse had a major excuse last time. I prefer some alternatives. Dark Storm moves up in class off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. This barn has outstanding statistics first off the claim in dirt routes, but the horse does need to improve to factor here. He ran well within the context of his last race, closing into a slow pace. However, he was facing weaker company and needs to get back to his better efforts. The scratch of American Dubai may help Musical America the most, as he does his best work on the front end. However, I also think it will aid my top pick, Zoomer. I don’t think Zoomer ran that badly last time behind Fort Peck, who dominated that race and returned to finish a good second in the Grade 2 Kelso behind Life Is Good. Zoomer’s recent form is a little spotty, but he’s had some excuses, and I like this claim. Tom Morley has been having an excellent few weeks, and he’s generally been doing well with new acquisitions over the past year or so, winning at a fair rate with a high ROI. Zoomer has the tactical speed to work out a trip and obviously has prior form that would make him tough against this field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,3,5,6,8
RACE 9: A MO REAY (#2)
Echo Zulu obviously merits respect in this Frizette as she looks to cement her status as the leading contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She’s a very likely winner, but she is stretching out to a mile for the first time off a pair of sprints, and it’s not always a guarantee that these precocious 2-year-olds will continue to maintain their edge as the distances increase. She would obviously have to regress noticeably to lose this race, and someone else would have to step up. Yet she’s going to be a very short price here and she is facing a couple of rivals who appear to have upside. Furthermore, I thought Echo Zulu had some things go her way in the Spinaway. She wasn’t facing any pace rivals of quality and she was racing over a Saratoga main track that was very kind to speed on closing weekend of that meet. I’m not way against her, but I do want to take a shot with the horse who I think is the best alternative. Todd Pletcher has two entrants in this race. Jester Calls Nojoy could take more money, but I’m very interested in his maiden A Mo Reay. This filly lost her debut at odds of 6-1 but might have run the best race. Gerrymander put in a good effort to beat her, stalking a fast pace before taking over. Yet A Mo Reay was green through the early stages, taking a ton of kickback while getting shuffled out of position on the backstretch. Once Luis Saez finally got her into the clear for the stretch drive she was finishing with a flourish, and just fell a half-length short. Few horses were making such explosive moves from far back at that time so I give her extra credit for that running line. She seems like one who should relish the added ground. I believe she has plenty of upside and there’s no one in this race that I fear outside of the heavy favorite.
Win: 2
Exacta: 6 with 2
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,7,8
RACE 10: SARATOGA PAL (#4)
This is a fascinating New York-bred allowance to close out the card, featuring a few very promising 3-year-olds. Judge N Jury’s connections got a little too ambitious taking a shot at the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens last time, and he understandably was no match for the likes of Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good. Now he’s dropping back down into a logical spot, but he’s catching a pretty salty field for this level. I’m very interested in fellow 3-year-old River Dog, who was also beaten by Jackie’s Warrior in the Amsterdam. River Dog blew the start of that race and then rushed up to chase a fast pace. He’s better than that, and I’m intrigued to see what he can do getting back on a fast track. His career debut over dry footing was dazzling and it didn’t seem like he was totally comfortable racing over wet tracks in his last two starts. They’re both major players, but they could have to contend with a fast pace. Steam Engine always sets an honest pace and those two figure to be breathing down his neck early. I’m hoping that things come apart a bit because I think Saratoga Pal is a threat from off the pace. He got a good pace setup when he won at Saratoga last time, but I liked the way he finished off that race, closing down the center of the track to defeat the promising Water’s Edge. This gelding has always had ability but he’s gone in and out of form over the past year. It seems like Chris Englehart now has him back at his peak, and I think he finds himself in a favorable scenario once again. The sweeping turns at Belmont are perfect for a horse like this and Eric Cancel knows that you have to keep him in the clear for him to fire his best shot.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6,8