by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   8 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 4 - 10
Race 5:   7 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 6:   10 - 9 - 12 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 8 - 9 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 5 - 8 - 1
Race 10:   6 - 12 - 7 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: NIGHTSPOT (#8)
Those with prior turf experience don’t do very much for me. I suppose David Donk holds a strong hand with Bielefeld and Ringgood, but neither one of these runners is particularly formidable. I prefer Bielefeld, who showed improvement last time when rallying to just miss at this level. That race featured a fast pace that fell apart, but at least he was relatively close to some swift early fractions before making his move. I think he’s the right horse among the shorter prices, as I have not been impressed with Ringgood’s recent form. He just appears to have regressed since returning from a layoff this summer, as his turf performance in August was pretty lackluster and he had no excuse to do so poorly against weaker last time. Among those with turf experience I’d be more inclined to take Noble Mischief, who was far too rank in the early stages of his last race. He ultimately finished behind Bielefeld, but at least he has prior speed figures that put him in the mix. I could use these runners in some capacity, but I want to get more creative. My top pick is first time turfer Nightspot. Owner/trainer Richard Lugovich has been having a strong season in New York with his small stable. He tried to get this horse on turf for his debut and kept him in when the race was rained off. Nightspot showed good early speed before fading, and he figures to improve getting on the surface for which he was intended. He’s by underrated turf sire Orientate, who wins with 14% of his turf route starters, and his dam is a full-sister to turf winner Disco On.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5
 

RACE 3: INDY UNION (#5)
Morning line favorite Overjoyed seems like the horse to beat despite the fact that she’s a 3-year-old facing older horses. A repeat of that 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned last time out at Monmouth might be good enough to defeat this field. She wasn't beating the strongest group that day but she did it in visually impressive fashion, as if slightly more distance won’t be any issue for her. While she’s raced mostly on turf, her dirt efforts are actually superior, as her grinding style seems to work better on this surface. I certainly prefer her to Todd Pletcher’s uncoupled pair, both of which could take some money in this spot. Off Topic just appears to have lost her competitive form, and layoffs leading into her two recent lackluster efforts raise questions about physical issues. Graceful Princess might attract some attention due to her regal pedigree, but she just hasn’t really progressed since her 2-year-old season, and also has to deal with yet another layoff. My top pick is the seasoned 5-year-old mare Indy Union. This deep closer is often a the mercy of the pace, and that’s a concern in such a small field where none of her rivals necessarily need the lead to be successful. That said, it does appear that she’s more consistent than her main rivals, having put in reasonably similar efforts, from a speed figure standpoint, in her last three starts. She nearly reeled in today’s rival Foxtail for third last time at Saratoga despite being compromised by a slow pace. Now she returns to Belmont Park where she’s earned both of her victories and I think she’s found the right field.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with ALL
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with ALL
 

RACE 5: SARATOGA PAL (#7)
Advance Notice figures to go favored here as he steps up against winners following his visually impressive debut victory. However, I think we have to keep in mind that this horse was sent off at 8-1 in a $20,000 maiden claimer, so the connections had to be just as surprised by the result as the public. While the raw final time seemed impressive and he did beat a solid horse in Long Term Thinking, the 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned merely makes him one of many contenders in this field. Furthermore, while he’s a son of Curlin, there’s no guarantee that added distance will be to his liking since his dam was arguably best as a sprinter. Mike Maker is just 1 for 19 (5%, $0.56 ROI) with last-out debut winners in their second career starts on dirt. I want to go somewhere else and my best idea for an alternative is Saratoga Pal. This 3-year-old is also stretching out off a maiden victory, but he did so against a pretty salty field of New York-bred maiden special weight runners. He had hinted that he might be an improved horse in that return to dirt on August 15 when he closed with a rush for second after a poor start. He had improved tactical speed last time and absolutely drowned that field. The two horses who finished directly behind him both returned to win, as did the last place finisher. I think he’s in great form right now and I’m not that worried about the stretch-out in distance. He’s a half-brother to modest dirt router Lucky Lou Pal and Forty Tales is a deceptively strong route influence, winning with 20% of his dirt route starters in a decent sample size.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,8,9
 

RACE 6: DATA ANALYTICS (#10)
This is a fascinating full field of New York-bred N1X allowance runners where you have a number of fillies stepping up out of maiden wins. However, the two fillies who should attract the most support on the tote board have both faced winners. Fresco broke her maiden in a stakes, so that immediately sets her apart from the rest. However, she was beating a very weak field when she won that Stallion Series race and it’s not as if she improved much when she was a non-threatening fourth behind some males in a similar race last time. She obviously has the speed figures to contend here, but I think others will offer better value. Astoria Kitten is overdue to break through this level after getting run down as the favorite in three straight N1X events. While I’m getting sick of her act, I do acknowledge that she ran well last time after setting a pretty fast pace for the distance. Cutting back to a one-turn mile will help her, but I still prefer new faces. Among those stepping up in class, I prefer Data Analytics. This filly has to run faster if she’s going to beat winners here, but I liked the way she handled maidens last time. She had to work hard to make the lead over a keyed up Pure Bode, who notably came back to win her next start, while setting an honest pace. Despite sustaining some early pressure, she kicked away impressively in the lane. She probably can’t make the lead this time with Astoria Kitten in the race, but I’m hopeful that she can stalk and pounce on that foe. I would also use Kilkea, another filly who broke her maiden at Saratoga. She seems a bit more versatile than Data Analytics from a tactical standpoint, but she’s getting a real class test after beating a weaker maiden field.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,4,8,9,12
 

RACE 7: CALDEE (#4)
Unfortunately, some key scratches have turned this Miss Grillo from an exceptionally strong two-year-old stakes into a thin 5-horse affair. It still figures to be a major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf given the presence of a few promising fillies, but it's not the race that it had shaped up to be. The favorite may be Plum Ali, who is the only stakes winner in this field, having conquered the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies in her most recent start. She’s won both of her races with ease, but she’s getting a major class test here as she steps up against the toughest field of her career. Based on her TimeformUS Speed Figures, she has to significantly improve to defeat a few of the recent maiden breakers. With the scratch of my original top pick Lovestruck, I'm left with Caldee is my first selection and I'm happy with that. This filly is a serious threat to wire the field off her impressive turf debut last time out. She got to set a slow pace that day, but she absolutely destroyed that field when she kicked for home, winning by nearly 7 lengths – an incredible margin on the turf. Riding the rail the entire way may have dressed up her performance a bit, but she obviously has talent and I think she's going to be difficult for her rivals to reel in. The other major player is Chad Brown's lone remaining starter Editor At Large, but she's exiting the slower division of two maiden races run on September 7 and is facing a tougher assignment here.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,8,9
Trifecta: 4 with 8,9 with 5,8,9
 

RACE 8: LETRUSKA (#1)
Dunbar Road is widely regarded as one of the leaders of this division, so it is expected that she will win this Beldame en route to a start in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. However, I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that she’ll handle this field. Her speed figures don’t suggest that she has any edge over this field whatsoever, and this by far the toughest field that she’s met so far in 2020. Furthermore, she had a setback after the Delaware Handicap, so her preparation for this race has not been ideal. I think she can win, but I believe she’s a terrible bet as the prohibitive favorite. The Pace Projector is predicting that Letruska will be on a clear early lead, and I just think that makes her very dangerous. This filly has significantly improved this year as a 4-year-old, and she’s always a threat to lead throughout when she gets to a lonely lead. She ran a good field off their feet in the Shuvee last time, setting a punishing pace for 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga before holding sway late. A one-turn configuration is probably better for her and she’s not supposed to get any pressure up front this time. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Horologist, who ran a massive speed figure two back in the Molly Pitcher. She wasn’t able to compete with Monomoy Girl last time, but she was hardly disgraced in defeat and she possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on the favorite.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,4,5
 

RACE 9: BACKTOHISROOTS (#3)
This Belmont Turf Sprint is a confusing race, since there is very little speed signed on and the horses who figure to be up front are hardly trustworthy. The horse to beat is clearly Archidust, who has held his form well since the trainer switch to Steve Asmussen, winning both of his starts at Monmouth this summer. He had to eke out the victory last time over some inferior rivals but the race didn’t exactly set up for a runner to come from off the pace so he did well to win. I think he’s a major player here and he has the tactical speed to get the right trip in a paceless race. I certainly prefer him to the other horse that is likely to take money, Chewing Gum. This Bill Mott trainee is certainly good enough to win a race of this caliber, but his lack of early speed could be a significant handicap in this paceless affair. He’s likely to be last early and it’s just hard to see him passing everyone if they crawl up front. I want to go in a different direction and the horse that intrigues me most is Backtohisroots. He might just be the so-called “now” horse in this field following his breakout victory at Saratoga last time. He got a great trip that day, but he has the versatility to make his own luck regardless of pace scenario. He earned a speed figure last time that puts him squarely in the mix here and Jose Lezcano has been riding in top form since the Belmont meet started.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,8,9
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,4,8,9