by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   8 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 1A - 6 - 5
Race 4:   12 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   11 - 12 - 9 - 5
Race 6:   8 - 11 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   6 - 13 - 4 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: AMOS (#6)
Five of the eight horses in this field faced off against each other in a similar spot on September 11. Marquet Legacy finished second that day, beating four of her rivals, so she figures to go off as the favorite this time. She did get a pretty good trip that day, as she had cover early and was able to gradually work her way to the outside in the stretch. She did have to alter course a few times, but she didn’t really get her momentum stopped at any point. She has a right to take another step forward as one of the more lightly-raced members of this field, but I prefer others at better prices. Two Cent Tootsie made the first move into an honest pace in that same spot and came up empty at the end. She might do better with a more patient ride this time. The Great Johanna had the opposite problem, as she was reserved towards the back of the pack in the early going. Her rider may have stayed on the rail for a bit too long, as she had to sacrifice some position to work her way into the clear for the final furlong. She did finish well once she found daylight. I’m using all of these runners, but my top pick is Amos. She was actually steadied after the start in that race last time, placing her at the back of the pack early. She had previously been a filly who had done her best work towards the front end, but poor starts in each of her last two outings haven’t allowed her to make use of her early speed. I thought Amos actually did well to get up for fourth considering her early trouble last time. I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario, and this barn has shown they can win races in New York.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,7,8
 

RACE 4: STARTUP NATION (#12)
Normally I wouldn’t bother to highlight a favorite like Startup Nation, but there are plenty of traps in this race who could divert some attention away from him. Horses like Not That Brady and Le General will attract some support in their turf debuts and I want no part of them. Neither one has a pedigree that suggests turf is supposed to be their preferred surface. Rather, it seems as if the connections of each horse are looking to try something new following a poor effort. I’ll let them beat me. Whatawonderflworld is another who could take some play, but he’s impossible to trust as he returns from a two-year layoff. He would be a player if he was able to recapture his top form, but that seems unlikely given the placement and the fact that he’s in for the $40,000 tag. Given the presence of these horses, Startup Nation’s odds might be a few ticks higher than they otherwise would be in a race at this level. While he has his own set of flaws, he’s far more likely to show up with a competitive effort than the aforementioned runners. He showed that he’s still able to run competitively last time, and was flattered when Wicked Freud and Cloontia came back to finish first and second in a race earlier in the week. It’s a good sign that Chad Brown is not risking him for the tag as he moves back up in class, especially considering where he’s at in his career. As long as he gets an honest pace to close into, he should be tough to beat. The key to this race might be chucking the other short prices in the exotics. I would much rather use proven turf runners like Ghost Giant, Riendo, and Ides of Arch underneath.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 5,6,8
Trifecta: 12 with 5,6,8,11 with 1,5,6,8,11
 

RACE 6: STRIKE MAGIC (#8)
This fascinating maiden race appears to be teeming with live runners. While a few of those with experience ran fairly well in their debuts, it seems likely that at least one of the first time starters will prove superior. Kansas Kis is the second-time starter that many will gravitate towards and there are reasons to believe she might improve. She had some trouble on the far turn last time and finished willingly for a trainer who rarely has them ready to fire first time out. That said, she’s exiting one of the weaker maiden special weight races at Saratoga and this field appears to be anything but weak. I’m focusing on the firsters. Yellow Brick Road goes out for John Kimmel, who has been having a good year with his 2-year-olds. She’s been working well and showed good speed in her OBS sales workout. Amazing Ride was an expensive yearling purchase and has been training forwardly for Tony Dutrow. Lake Avenue is a rare Godolphin runner trained by Bill Mott and she has a stellar dirt pedigree. Power Move also is regally bred and has reportedly been training better than your average Shug McGaughey firster. You could even throw the Todd Pletcher runner into the mix. I’d use all of them in some capacity, but my top pick is Strike Magic. While many of these fillies are well-bred, the majority of them have pedigrees that suggest they’ll ultimately want to go longer. Strike Magic is by excellent debut sire Into Mischief and she’s been training like a filly who might be ready to win a sprint debut. Mark Hennig certainly knows how to have a 2-year-old ready for its first start and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one shows a bit of speed. In such a loaded field, she’s likely to get somewhat lost in the shuffle and may go off at a square price.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,6,7,9,11
 

RACE 7: EMBOLDEN (#3)
Four Wheel Drive figures to take plenty of money in this prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He was bet down to 6-5 in a stakes first time out and won with ease. He apparently broke the track record, but I’d be unsure what to make of that given that the race was hand-timed. He clearly has ability, but Ward is just 1 for 6 ($0.76 ROI) with 2-year-old last-out debut winners in turf sprints (in the US) over the last 5 years. I’m using him, but I believe others will offer better value. Another Miracle seems like a threat as he goes for a second stakes victory. He essentially transferred his excellent dirt form to turf in the Skidmore last time, and the form of that race was validated when runner-up Proven Strategies returned to finish a close fourth in the Grade 1 Summer next time out. This gritty colt possesses a versatile running style to go along with his ample speed, but I’m somewhat concerned about the meet record of this barn. My top pick is Embolden. This colt was beaten by the talented Meru in his debut but has been a new horse since switch to turf. He dusted Virginia-breds in his last two starts, and accomplished those victories the right way. He gets tested for class this time, but his last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 94 is tied with the favorite for the highest in this field. Trainer Mike Stidham is 19 for 66 (29%, $2.30 ROI) with last-out winners in turf sprints over 5 years. Embolden might be fast enough to make the lead over some other speeds, and a front-running trip would make him very dangerous.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 4,5,6 with ALL
 

RACE 9: DAPHNE MOON (#2)
I’m not a fan of Frank’s Rockette, who is clearly the class of this field after finishing second in a pair of graded stakes at Saratoga. She did have some trouble in the stretch of the Adirondack, but I didn’t think she stepped forward at all in the Spinaway last time. She had a good trip and it just seemed as if the added distance took its toll in the late stages. I’m skeptical about her stretching out an additional furlong, and I’m not sure what to make of the fact that Bill Mott worked her on turf last week. Quality Response is the other runner with stakes experience, and I suppose she makes some sense. She won both of her California starts with ease, but the fact that Bob Baffert is shipping her out of town probably has more to do with the fact that he didn’t want to run her against Bast in the Chandelier than anything else. I prefer the recent maiden winners. Wicked Whisper may go off as the favorite after easily taking down her debut during the penultimate week of the Saratoga meet. She broke on top and never looked back while Ricardo Santana, Jr. had her on cruise control in the stretch. She’s certainly bred to stretch out as a half-sister to graded stakes-winning router Point of Honor. The only concern is that there are some other potential speeds in this field. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Daphne Moon. I know she ran a bit slower in her Saratoga debut, but I loved the way she looped the field at the quarter pole and drew off late. She acts like one who should have no trouble handling the added distance and she’s trained very well out of that first start. I love her running style for this race and she should be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,6,7