by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 1A - 3 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   7 - 8 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 11 - 8 - 7
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 1 - 6 - 10
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   9 - 12 - 2 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: FREE KITTY (#1)
Perhaps I’m making this race too complicated by not merely defaulting to the likely favorite Amazing Audrey. While I recognize that she’s run the fastest speed figures in this field, I think you have to judge her off her most recent performances. She was very disappointing two back at Belmont and she beat a fairly weak field to win last time at Saratoga. Danny Gargan does not have the strongest numbers off the claim on the turf and I feel that she’s going to be an underlay. Since the rails have been set to 0 feet on the inner turf course, it is now also favoring horses with inside position, and I feel that these circumstances could make Free Kitty very dangerous. According to the Pace Projector, Free Kitty is simply faster than her rivals in the early going, and she figures to secure a clear lead from her inside post position going this odd distance. While her overall body of work on turf is fairly uneven, I do think it is noteworthy that she ran her best career race over a course with some give to it. She was overmatched against males on June 22, so I don’t want to hold that race against her. I’ll admit that I don’t love her recent dirt races, but I’m obviously hoping that she works out the right trip. Muchacha Uno is a filly that should be included since she ran just as well as Amazing Audrey when she broke her maiden two back. That was her first race off the claim for Jorge Abreu and now she’s getting back on her preferred surface. At a big price, I would also want to throw Miss Jen into the mix. Perhaps she’s just overmatched at this level, but she got the wrong trip last time and can do better here if she saves some ground.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,9,10
 

RACE 4: MISS LOYALTY (#1)
This selection is more of a play against horses than it is an endorsement of my pick, Miss Loyalty. I’ll be the first to admit that Miss Loyalty isn’t very talented, but I do believe that she finds herself in an ideal spot today. There is not much early speed in this field, and she showed the tactical speed to get good position from this rail post over a course that has been favoring inside runners. Her recent maiden win at Monmouth was a slow race, but she was not full extended to win that day as Paco Lopez basically geared her down in the last furlong. She ran a speed figure that would beat this field back on July 26, and I view her as a very likely winner. The reason that I’m highlighting her is that she may not even be the favorite in this race given the presence of Three Eighty Eight. While this Linda Rice mare has run faster speed figures on a number of occasions, her form has been dubious recently and her return from the layoff was uninspiring. She’s never been fond of winning, so I think you’re supposed to bet against her. I also want no part of Heaven’s Creation who tied up badly in the late stages of her two Saratoga starts. I’m always a little skeptical of horses coming out of Larry Jones’s barn, and she has not run well for her new connections.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2 with 3,4,6
 

RACE 6: JOYFUL HEART (#2)
This race figures to altered significantly by scratches. Credit Swap is expected to run at Keeneland instead, and Wesley Ward must decide whether the filly Dragic will be rerouted to Sunday’s Matron. Even if both do not participate, this is still a very intriguing race. Swamp Rat could inherit the favorite’s role, and he makes plenty of sense. The Pace Projector is predicting that a fast pace will develop, and that will hold true even after scratches. Swamp Rat just couldn’t get the distance in the With Anticipation last time and he ran reasonably well in his prior start in the Skidmore. I’ve still yet to see him get back to the brilliance we saw in his debut, so maybe getting back to Belmont will help him. I’m using him, but I actually prefer the other horse exiting the With Anticipation. Joyful Heart was always going to be dubious around two turns and he just ran out of gas in the late stages that day. While he was defeated by Swamp Rat in his debut on June 17, I thought Joyful Heart ran a fantastic race after setting a very fast pace. He easily broke through next time out before trying stakes company. While there is other speed in this field, I think Joyful Heart is just faster than the rest of them, and he’s shown good gate speed in his races. The rail has been the place to be on the Widener course, and he figures to secure that coveted position in the early stages. I would also use Veterans Beach and Stole E, who both ran well in the Laurel Futurity while perhaps not racing on the best part of the track. Real Money has a right to improve turning back, and he was meant to start in a sprint at Saratoga following an impressive 2-year-old sales workout. I think you also have to take the lone European shipper seriously, as Neverland Rock has faced some classy horses in England. This is a wide-open race.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6,10
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,4,6,7,10,11
 

RACE 7: JAYWALK (#2)
If Covfefe is able to stretch out to a mile effectively, she may just be too talented for this field. This filly’s debut at Churchill Downs three weeks ago was spectacular. She broke alertly, rated kindly on the lead, and rebroke at the top of the stretch before getting geared down in the late stages. It’s conceivable that she could have run even faster had she been ridden out to the wire that day. Over the past five years, Brad Cox is an amazing 12 for 25 (48 percent, $3.45 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts on the dirt. The stretch-out is a question mark considering the speed she showed first time out, but she’s certainly bred to handle it given her stellar female family that includes runners like Arch and Acoma. I’m using this favorite, but the filly that intrigues me most is Jaywalk. It’s a pretty significant ask for any 2-year-old to stretch out from 5 1/2 furlongs to a mile, but she’s certainly bred to do so. Over the past five years, John Servis is 28 for 89 (31 percent, $3.98 ROI) with non-maidens going from sprints to routes on the dirt. New sire Cross Traffic was an effective dirt router during his career and this filly is a half-sister to multiple stakes winning router Danzatrice. Jaywalk was dominant when breaking her maiden two back, and I loved the way she finished up to beat winners last time. She was wide on the turn, but came with a relentless rally to reel in the very fast Congrats Gal. That runner-up returned to win next time out by 14 lengths with an improved speed figure.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,4,7,8
 

RACE 8: ONTHEMOONAGAIN (#1)
If Fourstar Crook shows up with a top effort, she is very likely to win this Flower Bowl, securing a long-awaited Grade 1 triumph. This New York-bred mare is as consistent as they come and loves to win races. She was somewhat fortunate to beat her highly regarded stablemate two back in the New York, but Sistercharlie avenged that loss in the Beverly D. last time. One vulnerability for Fourstar Crook is her lack of early speed. However, Feeling Bossy could help mitigate that concern, since she appears to be in this race merely to set a fast pace for her commonly owned partner. I’m using Fourstar Crook prominently, but I’m taking a shot against her with Chad Brown’s other entrant Onthemoonagain. This 4-year-old filly had terrible trips in both of her starts at Saratoga. She was never given a chance in her U.S. debut two back when she encountered traffic on the rail in the stretch. Then last time, the pace failed to develop in the Glens Falls and she found herself racing wide toward the back of the pack. She was the only horse to make any late impact and she did so despite making a premature far turn move. I prefer her to Lady Montdore out of that race, though I do acknowledge that the Tom Albertrani filly is in good form. Onthemoonagain handled turf with give in the ground when she was racing in Europe and she figures to encounter a course rated good on Sunday.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,3,4