by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   1A - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 8 - 9 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 11 - 3 - 9
Race 7:   10 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 9 - 11 - 10

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: SILVER FERN (#6)
I’m against Radiant Beauty, who attempts to stretch out in distance after finishing an even third in her turf debut sprinting last time at Saratoga. She rode the rail for much of the way that day, and I didn’t think she ran particularly well. I’m much more afraid of the two Chad Brown first-time starters, Night Owl and Kasbach. The former is by Animal Kingdom out of a turf-winning dam, and the latter is out of a dam that was Group 1-placed on grass. I’ll use both, but the runner that I want to bet in this spot is Silver Fern. She didn’t do much running in her debut in the slop last time, but this is supposed to be her preferred surface. She is a half-sister to two turf stakes winners in Europe, and her dam is a full-sister to Group 1 Matron Stakes winner Emulous. Over the past five years, Bill Mott is 5 for 21 (24 percent, $4.55 ROI) with horses going from dirt sprints to turf routes in their second career starts in maiden special weight races.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,7

 

RACE 2: ULTIMATE CAUSE (#6)
Fancy Kitten is likely to go off as the favorite here, since she’s dropping in class and going out for the Chad Brown barn. However, not only did she not take a step forward for the new barn last time, but she really didn’t do any significant running in that race. I know it came against tougher competition, but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet at a short price off that kind of effort. Tilbury seems more reliable, since she’s run reasonably well in her races, and just didn’t get the right trip last time at Saratoga. This drop in class should agree with her and I’m not sure that she isn’t actually better going shorter. I’ll use her, but my top pick is Ultimate Cause. If she runs back to her race two back off the layoff at Monmouth, she can certainly win this. I know that her last race looks disappointing at first glance, but she did not get the savviest of rides that day and is better than that effort. Now she gets some realistic class relief, and adds Lasix for the first time.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,5

 

RACE 3: WAR EAGLE’S RETURN (#1A)
This race is totally wide open. I’m somewhat against No Hiding Place, who makes his first start off the claim by Linda Rice. She has fine numbers in this situation, but I don’t like the field he’s exiting, and I have my doubts about him getting seven furlongs. Of the speeds, At Guard seems like the most dangerous. He gets a significant barn change to the Brad Cox stable, as he adds blinkers and Kendrick Carmouche. He could lead them a long way, but my top selection is a late runner. War Eagle’s Return ran an improved race off the claim last time, lagging well behind before making a strong late rally to get up for third. This may be a tougher spot than that one, but I think he can take another step forward. Over the past five years, Greg DiPrima is 10 for 43 (23 percent, $4.71 ROI) second off the claim – a pretty remarkable statistic for a barn that’s won just 41 races in total during that period. I’m somewhat disappointed that he’s coupled with Tug of War, who will bring down the price, but I still think War Eagle’s Return is a strong contender.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,6,8

 

RACE 5: FEELING BOSSY (#4)
The two runners likely to take the bulk of the play here are Galileo’s Song and Paige. The former should appreciate stretching back to this 10-furlong distance after making a late run going shorter at Saratoga. That was her first start in almost 11 months, and she figures to move forward here. Paige is tougher to read. She ran well behind the talented On Leave last time, but she’s difficult to trust. She’s been plagued with inconsistency and layoffs in recent starts, so I’m not sure what we’re going to get. I want to take a shot against both with Feeling Bossy. She’s entered for the tag here since she’s already won this condition, but this is nevertheless an appropriate spot, especially as the turf season winds down. She really took to this distance back in June, and followed that up with a game effort going a 1 1/2 miles in the River Memories. She was facing some nice horses in the Yaddo and John Hettinger, but those races were just too short, and not run in a fashion that’s conducive to her style. Furthermore, she figures to be forwardly placed in a race lacking any pace whatsoever.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,2,6

 

RACE 9: WINGMAN (#1)
I want to bet Wingman off his last trip. A pretty strong group of runners has been assembled for this maiden claiming race, but the field he faced last time at Saratoga was just about as tough as this one. With the rails down on the Saratoga turf course, saving ground was important, and Wingman was never near the rail. Breaking from the far outside post position in a 12-horse field, he was three-wide around both turns. Furthermore, he made the first move coming off the far turn and broke the race open before he got passed by the winner and Prognostication late. Now he draws the rail and they take the blinkers off. He’s run well enough to be competitive in races like this on a few occasions, and I think he’s due to break through.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 9,10,11