PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 10 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 7:   8 - 9 - 1 - 12
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   7 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 10:   1 - 9 - 7 - 5

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: LONE SENTRY (#1)
There are certainly some well-bred first-time starters in this race, including Victor Lounge, one of two European graded stakes winners on turf; Blockade, whose dam was a multiple graded stakes winner on turf; and Voting Control, a son of Kitten’s Joy out of a grass-winning dam. I’ll use them, but I’m most interested in a horse with experience. Lone Sentry ran extremely well in his debut considering the dynamics of that race. The early pace was glacial (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and the entire field sprinted home from the top of the stretch. Few horses were making up significant ground into the pace, and the only one that made any kind of impact from the back of the pack was Lone Sentry. He was absolutely flying late, running his last quarter-mile in 21.81 seconds, according to Trakus. This half-brother to Grade 1-winning turfer Lukes Alley looks to have a bright future. Kelly Rubley has poor overall numbers with second-time starters, but that sample comprises many horses who were massive longshots and a few shorter prices that actually ran well.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,8,9,10
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,10 with 2,3,8,9,10,11

RACE 3: DWIZARD (#1)
Zonic has run the fastest speed figures, and has kept good company in his dirt races. However, he’s had his chances, and I think there are some more intriguing second-time starters to consider. The two horses that I want come out of the same race on Aug. 13. Dwizard and Givetheman a Cigar finished third and fourth that day, and both had interesting trips. I think Dwizard ran the better race and he’s my top pick. He was off a step slowly, rushed up into contention, and then made a premature wide move to challenge the leaders before flattening out late. He deserves extra credit for that effort since Aug. 13 was a day that favored horses racing on or near the rail, and Dwizard was wide for much of the way. Givetheman a Cigar had an odd trip, racing close up early, dropping back midway through the race, and coming on again late. He spent more time on the rail overall, but Steve Klesaris has solid numbers with second-time starters in dirt sprints, so he has a right to improve.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7

RACE 5: WISH UPON (#5) / SATURDAYNIGHTFLING (#2)
Reconsider It probably comes off the best performance after chasing a fast pace against tougher company, but I’m not totally convinced that she really wants to go this far despite the fact that she ran well in both her starts at Saratoga. Grand Banks had some trouble last time, but she’s starting to run out of chances for me. I instead prefer two runners coming out of different races. My top pick is Wish Upon, who has just run better than it seems in each of her last three starts. She made the first move into a fast pace three back at Belmont, then overcame a wide trip to finish second to a perfect trip winner two back. She then got very unlucky last time as she was shuffled back early, got spun out into the four- or five-path on the far turn, and still finished well to be fourth. At a bigger price, I also want to use Saturdaynightfling. Her last race received a lower speed figure, but she ran well to close into a slow pace that day. Horses have come back out of that race to run better in their subsequent starts, and she could offer value in a wide-open field.

Win: 2,5
Exacta Box: 2,5
Exacta: 2,5 with 1,7,8,10

RACE 7: BOW TIE AFFAIR (#8)
This is a very confusing race, since horses are coming in from so many different directions, both stretching out and turning back in distance. The pace of this race is supposed to be pretty honest with Polar Axis, Abiding Star, and Tiznoble signed on. I’m hoping things come apart late for longshot Bow Tie Affair, who is probably going to get lost in the wagering here. He was three- to four-wide around both turns last time, and actually ran quite well to finish fourth against a tougher field. There are a number of class droppers in this race, but Bow Tie Affair has proven that he fits at this level, and is drawn well down toward the inside. Furthermore, he’s succeeded going six furlongs as well as a route of ground, so I think seven furlongs (a distance he’s never tried) will hit him right between the eyes.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Box: 1,8,9
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,7,12

RACE 9: KNARSDALE (#7)
I know that Jamyson ‘n Ginger is likely to win this race as she makes her first start off the private purchase and trainer switch to Chad Brown. I thought she ran quite well in her return last time, finishing a solid second to Mother Goose winner Unchained Melody, who was in excellent form at the time. A one-turn mile seems perfect and she’s formidable, but she just isn’t going to offer any value here. Therefore, I want to take a small shot against her with Knarsdale. I’ve been waiting for this filly to stretch out in distance and she finally gets her chance. Over the past five years, Jimmy Jerkens is 7 for 22 (32 percent, $3.89 ROI) with non-maidens stretching out on the dirt. This filly is bred to go longer, being by Medaglia d’Oro and hailing from a female family of dirt routers. Furthermore, she ran better than it appears last time after breaking slowly and rushing up to the chase the pace. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 7
Exacta: 6 with 7
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with 2,3,5