by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 7 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 4: 12 - 9 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 12 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 7: 2 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 7 - 11 - 8
RACE 1: COMEONCOMEONCAT (#7)
Class Won is obviously the horse to beat, but I don’t fully trust this favorite. His form since the claim by Robertino Diodoro has been mediocre, as the typically solid claiming outfit has failed to improve this gelding. He earned a solid speed figure at this level last time out, but that field was not nearly as strong as it appeared going in, as 2 of the 5 runners were eased and heavy favorite Slot failed to show up. I’m using him, but I think there are some other more intriguing alternatives at better prices. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and that figures to aid my top pick Comeoncomeoncat. This chestnut gelding was claimed out of his last start by Richard Schosberg, who admittedly has poor numbers with new acquisitions. However, many starters in that sample were longshots, so the statistic is not as bad as it seems. Comeoncomeoncat was in good form his prior stable this summer, running well at Parx on June 17, when he set a fast pace that collapsed. He was again done in by a contested early duel on July 20. They dropped him in class last time, and I think he would have won that race had his rider not chosen to change up the tactics and take him off the pace. Aug. 19 at Saratoga was a day that was favoring speed and Comeoncomeoncat gave up his best weapon in rating. I like the outside draw for him this time and it’s a good sign that he picks up Irad Ortiz. At a bigger price, I also want to use Belleville Spring. This horse may be greatly aided by getting back on a fast track. His most recent dirt start on Aug. 4 is not quite as bad as it seems, as he broke a step slowly and got very rank as his rider attempted to rate him.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,5,6
RACE 3: FAST BOAT (#7)
This allowance race came up very strong for the level. The horse to beat is Dr. Edgar, who appears to be in the best form of his career since returning from the layoff this summer. He ran a truly amazing race on July 11, as he dueled through suicidal early fractions, put away his main pace rival, and nearly held off the eventual winner, who closed from well back. He again found himself in a situation where the pace was unusually swift last time at Saratoga. That time, he rated a few lengths off the runaway leader before taking over in midstretch. He drifted out late and was controversially disqualified from the win, but he nevertheless ran extremely well. I’m using him, but I think he faces a serious pace rival in Morrison. This 3-year-old has significantly improved in recent starts for Joe Sharp. He showed a new dimension two back, stalking to win over yielding ground at Saratoga. They got ambitious and tried him in the West Point against older rivals last time, and he arguably ran the best race of his career, attacking a fast pace before fading. The only problem with these two runners is that the early pace of this race is also predicted to be fast, so they may find themselves vulnerable late. I’m trying to beat them with Fast Boat off the layoff. This colt showed a ton of talent late last year, as he was third in a loaded maiden race behind Analyze It in his debut and returned with a visually impressive score at Gulfstream in his second start. He was beating an inferior field in that Dec. 8 race, but I loved the way he won, as he rated keenly off the pace and exploded once set down in the lane. He was justifiably sent off as the favorite in the Kitten’s Joy in his most recent outing, but he didn’t appear to have the same kick in the lane. I’m guessing that something went wrong that day, as he didn’t return to the work tab for a long time after that race. It appears that Christophe Clement has him right again, as that bullet workout over the dirt last week is unusually fast for this barn. The one-turn mile should be a perfect place for him to start.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,6,9
Trifecta: 7 with 2,9 with 1,2,4,6,9
RACE 4: EARLY RETIREMENT (#12)
Wicked Grin is the one to beat based on his turf debut. He showed good early speed and stayed on well to nearly get up for the win. I suppose he could take a step forward in his second start, but this is not a great move for trainer Christophe Clement. Over the past five years, he is just 4 for 29 (14 percent, $0.95 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens in turf sprints. Qian B C comes out of that same race and was not nearly as fortunate as Wicked Grin. He didn’t show much early speed but was racing handily heading into the turn as Dylan Davis attempted to move up between horses. The hole quickly closed up, and Qian B C ended up getting steadied out to last, losing all of his momentum. All things considered, he actually did well to rally for fifth, and he figures to move forward off that effort. I’m using both of these runners, but my top pick is Early Retirement. This gelding contested a pair of two-turn races at Saratoga. He ran deceptively well on Aug. 8 behind impressive winner Somelikeithotbrown and then disappointed when last seen just 15 days later. While more was expected of him as the 2-1 favorite that day, he got an absolutely awful trip, getting hung out four wide around both turns. I’m willing to excuse that effort, and I’m very intrigued by this turnback in distance. His full-sister Chinchilla Dust was a turf-sprint winner, and he appears to possess the speed to compete at this distance. Furthermore, David Donk is 10 for 44 (23 percent, $2.91 ROI) with turnbacks on turf at NYRA.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,7,9,10
RACE 5: I LOVE JAXSON (#3)
This is one of the most wide-open races on the card. I suppose H Man deserves to go favored once again despite losing at a short price last time. The main track at Saratoga appeared to be favoring speed on Aug. 24, so he was up against it from a dynamics perspective. That said, he reached contention at the quarter pole and didn’t offer up any finish thereafter. I can’t dismiss him, but I don’t want to pick him at a short price. The Pace Projector is predicting that this race is another that could favor horses on the lead, and that figures to make Royal Heist dangerous. He beat an inferior field when he broke his maiden two back, but he ran a competitive speed figure that day. A repeat of that performances makes him a threat to take these wire-to-wire. I’m using him, but my top selection is I Love Jaxson. This horse skipped Saratoga after a disappointing performance at Belmont in July. While some may be turned off by that last effort, I think he was hindered by the track profile that day. July 5 was one of the few days during the spring/summer meet at Belmont where we observed a bias on the main track, as having speed and the rail was an advantage throughout the day. I Love Jaxson was outside throughout that day while racing off the pace, so I’m willing to forgive the performance. He ran a competitive speed figure in his return two back. Now he returns as a new gelding with the addition of blinkers. He showed some tactical speed early in his career, so I’m hoping the equipment change puts him closer to the early pace.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL
RACE 6: A I INITIATIVE (#12)
Wicked Trick is likely to go off as a significant favorite in this spot as he drops to the lowest claiming level at which he has competed. This horse has definitely had his fair share of chances, having picked up minor awards in a string of races, including three second-place finishes. Those efforts came against significantly tougher company than the group he’s meeting here, so I fully acknowledge that he’s the class of the field. I’m using this runner, but I’m interested in A I Initiative in his second start off the layoff. This gelding ran very well considering the circumstances on Aug. 25. It was his first start in nearly a year, and he barely got anything out of that 2-year-old debut after breaking slowly and failing to get involved. He looked like a completely different horse last time when returning for the Jorge Abreu barn, as he rushed up to contest the pace after a mediocre break. He actually briefly forged to the lead in midstretch but acted as his own worst enemy in the final eighth of a mile, as he severely veered out into a rival. He seems like a horse who should greatly benefit from the addition of blinkers today, and I believe he still has some upside. His trainer has been enjoying a fantastic summer. At a bigger price, I also want throw in Call the Cat underneath. If this horse can run back to his turf debut as a 2-year-old, he has a chance to make some noise here. He disappointed in his return last time, but he also got a very wide trip against tougher company.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,6,11
Trifecta: 3,12 with 3,12 with 4,5,6,11
RACE 7: COUNTY COURT (#2)
I found this to be one of the most difficult races on the card. Astounding seems like the right favorite as he takes a slight drop in class for Jason Servis. He was legitimately compromised by the pace last time in a race that was dominated on the front end by Souperfast. However, I still thought the good version of Astounding would have offered up more of a kick in the lane. I just get the feeling that he’s not quite the same horse that he was during the second half of 2017, but I acknowledge that he’s still a viable win candidate off his recent form. Macagone ran well enough in his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin last time. He’s not the easiest horse to ride as he sometimes doesn’t care to rate off horses, but he did it kindly last time and finished strongly. The turf course figures to be yielding again on Sunday, which should help his cause. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is another horse that figures to be aided by the turf condition. County Court has been a major disappointment. He’s bred to be a nice runner, but he never quite panned out for his connections, which is why he’s running in claiming races these days. His most recnet performance on July 20 was not good, as he got pace to close into and had no answer in the stretch. He’s difficult to like off that effort, but he was running back on short rest, and he was given a long time to recover from that performance. Shug McGaughey brought him down to Fair Hill Training Center to recuperate, and he’s run well off brief layoffs in the past. Most importantly, he’s going to get his preferred kind of going this time. He appeared to relish a “good” course at Aqueduct early in the year, running a speed figure that would make him competitive with this bunch. He also showed an affinity for a rain-softened course in his career debut back in 2016, when he made an eye-catching late run over a distance that is too short for him. They key to this horse may be the turf condition, as none of his efforts over firm going are particularly inspiring.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,8