PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 8 - 7 - 1A
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   12 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 2 - 9
Race 8:   12 - 2 - 11 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 1A - 2 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 6 - 12 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: OLD UPSTART (#4)
Schivarelli is probably the horse to beat as he takes a huge drop in class off the claim. David Jacobson actually has decent numbers with this move, but this horse’s recent races are decidedly subpar, and this steep drop does not inspire confidence. The other runner likely to take money is Saratoga Wildcat, but he’s also dropping significantly in class off the claim, and his last race was terrible. I’m trying to beat them both with Old Upstart. This horse was badly compromised by a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) last time out at Saratoga on a day when horses racing inside appeared to have an advantage. Now he drops off the claim by Carl Domino, but I think he’s just racing in a realistic spot. Six furlongs may be on the short side for him, but he’s run well enough around one turn in the past.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7,8

RACE 5: E J'S LEGACY (#12)
With the scratch of Patriot Drive, the main speed has been taking out of this race. Horses like Hembree, Island Therapy, and Dr. Edgar will be forwardly placed, but the pace no longer figures to be particularly taxing. I think that will help a horse like E J's Legacy, who figures to get the first jump on the closers from his stalking position. I like this horse getting back to the one-turn mile at Belmont Park. He ran very well when last seen doing this in July, finishing a solid third after chasing a fast early pace. He ran fine in two starts at Saratoga, but I think he's going to find the conditions of this spot more to his liking.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,3,4,6,8

RACE 7: LADY OF MIRACLES (#4)
Blue Atlas is probably the horse to beat on the turnback in distance after she found two turns to be a bit too far for her last time at Saratoga. I’ll use her, but I’m more interested in a runner coming out of a sprint. A few of these faced off in the Aug. 28 maiden race won by Saratoga Treasure. That race was run at a time when the rails were down and it was of utmost importance to save ground on the Mellon turf course. Whereas Fiveinthemorning, who runs in this spot, saved ground for much of her trip, Lady of Miracles was never inside that day. She was pushed into the 4 path leaving the backstretch, raced wide on the turn, and then finished out in the center of the course. She ran well enough in her debut to suggest she has more to offer. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see her show a bit more speed this time as she gets a rider switch to Luis Saez and adds blinkers.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7,9,10,11

RACE 8: WICKED FREUD (#12) / DREAM DOCTOR (#11)
This is the most interesting race on the card. Nevisian Sky figures to be favored, but there are many other contenders to consider, and I wouldn’t want to take a very short price on this horse. Converge bolted into the clubhouse turn last time and now makes his first start for Mark Hennig, who rarely claims horses. I’ll use both of these, but I’m most interested in a pair of longshots. My top pick is Wicked Freud. This horse has just been facing tougher company in all of his recent starts. He was obviously no match for stakes-placed Delta Prince last time, but he also got the wrong trip as he was wide for much of the way and too close to the pace. He’s always been better around one turn, and I think he’s going to really appreciate the return to this one-mile distance at Belmont. At a bigger price, I also want to use Dream Doctor. I’m not sure that he’s quite as talented as the aforementioned runners, but he did get an impossible trip last time, racing four wide around both turns before tiring late. His return in July at Belmont was decent, and he would have an outside chance here if he could step forward off that effort.

Win: 12
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11,12 with 2,4,11,12,13
Trifecta: 12 with 2,4,11 with 2,4,9,11,13

RACE 9: GAMING (#3)
If Gucci Factor runs back to his maiden score from June, he will win this race. However, I’m skeptical that we’ll see that kind of effort given the circumstances he faces here. He appears to run best when he’s up near the lead early, and he once again finds himself placed in a sprint where he is likely to get outrun in the early stages. The horse to beat is probably Heavy Meddle, but he’s coupled in the wagering and is likely to go off at a short price. I’m hoping to beat them both with Gaming. I’ve liked both of this runner’s efforts since returning from the layoff this summer. He was especially game last time, battling back inside after getting multiple early challenges.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,5,6,8