PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 9 - 6
Race 6:   12 - 2 - 11 - 7
Race 7:   11 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 12 - 7
Race 10:   12 - 8 - 3 - 1/1A

PLAYS

RACE 1: LADY THORNHILL (#2)
We got nearly 7-1 on Lady Thornhill last time as she returned from the layoff and moved up in class to face maiden special weight company. She clearly ran the best race that day but had to settle for second after she was hindered by an extremely wide trip. She broke a little outward at the start, which forced Jose Ortiz to rate her. From there, she was spun 4-wide around the first turn and continued to race similarly wide around the far turn. She actually did well to strike the lead in midstretch before just getting tired late. As long as she breaks cleanly this time she figures to be tough for this field to handle. The only problem is that we’re almost guaranteed to get a much shorter price than last time. Though, Hit the Nail will attract some support, as Jose Ortiz abandons Lady Thornhill to stick with her instead. This 4-year-old filly ran respectably against males last time but did so with a perfect ground-saving trip. I prefer Lady Thornhill and would also use her over Pop the Bubbly, who gets back to the right surface, and Fist Full of Dice, who sustained some bumps in upper stretch when trying to rally last time.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 4,7,8

RACE 2: IRISH GIANT (#4)
Supply and Demand seems like the horse to beat as he moves up in class slightly off the claim by Tony Dutrow. While this barn hasn’t had much success directly off the claim they have done well with new acquisitions over time during the past year. This gelding didn’t handle a mile when he stretched out in his second start, but that came in the slop against a very tough field. He’s bred to go this far and seems like one who should be able to handle it at this level. I prefer him to the other likely short price, Mr. Briggs. This guy won a weaker off-the-turf race last time and I think he would have to improve to beat this field. I suppose it’s a good sign that Luis Saez keeps the mount for Linda Rice, but I wasn’t thrilled with his chances. I’m actually most intrigued by Linda Rice’s other runner, Irish Giant. I know he looks totally uncompetitive based on his form to date. However, this 5-year-old was clearly a work in progress when he made his debut at Aqueduct over the winter. He took a big step forward to be second in his next start at Belmont, closing well behind the dominant Charlie Five O. Since then Linda Rice has entered him and scratched in a few spots, all either at the allowance level or for this $40k tag. And today’s he’s entered to run in a very ambitious spot. I find it interesting that the notoriously realistic Rice is so committed to running this horse at a higher level, and it appears that he has improved in his recent training.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,7

RACE 5: CREATIVE LEGACY (#7)
Neither of the favorites in this race do a whole lot for me. Quantitativbreezin earned the best speed figure last time out when finishing second at this level to impressive winner Baba. She just chased that one around the track in what was probably a tougher race at this level. That said, she was almost 8-1 last time and now she’s going to be a short price despite the fact that her prior form hasn’t exactly been consistent. Seascape is the other one who figures to attract support. She’s dropping slightly off the claim for Steve Klesaris after putting in an even effort against a better field last time. She has plenty of prior dirt races that make her a player and is arguably the one to beat. I’m going in a different direction with Creative Legacy. This filly didn’t really improve much when she was stretched out from sprint to routes early in her career, so I don’t mind the turnback to sprinting for her. Her recent form looks poor, but she was facing better fields than this each time. She ran races that would make her competitive here going back to last winter at Oklawn. I also like this trainer switch to Gustavo Rodriguez, who has resurrected the form of a few runners who have come into his barn recently.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,6,9

RACE 8: CARTWHEEL (#6)
$775k yearling purchase Brattle House could go favored here as she returns from a layoff. She’s nearly perfect in 3 starts, and was a visually impressive winner of her debut before getting run down by the classy Make Mischief in the Maddie May over the winter. She bounced right back out of that narrow loss to get back to the winner’s circle in visually impressive fashion. Now she’s returning from a layoff and cutting back to 7 furlongs, which doesn’t seem like a major obstacle. However, Christophe Clement is just 2 for 25 (8%, $0.53 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. She’s the horse to beat, but I prefer the recency of some others. Ifihadachance is the ‘now’ horse in a race where a couple of her main rivals are coming off layoffs. She’s tried a few different distances and performs well regardless of trip. She was in a much tougher field at this level last time and stayed on well through the lane on a day when it wasn’t easy to close. A repeat of that performance puts her right there. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Cartwheel. She fits well here with her best races but she’s coming off a pretty flat effort when not showing her customary early speed. That came at a lower level and now she’s moving up in class off the claim. Mertkan Kantarmaci is an impressive 18 for 63 (29%, $2.75 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years, and is one of the most underrated claiming outfits on the grounds. That alone is reason to give her a long look, and she has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed in a paceless race.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,7 with 1,2,5,7

RACE 9: MINAUN (#3)
Plum Ali is a deserving favorite, as she may have finally found the right spot after facing tough fields in both the Belmont Oaks and Saratoga Oaks. Those races were contested at distances that are probably a little outside of her ideal range. Now she’s cutting back to a perfect one-turn mile on the Widener course and she’s drawn perfectly down on the rail. While she hasn’t won since taking the Miss Grillo as a 2-year-old, she’s run some nice races this year. She was badly hampered by a slow pace in the Appalachian at Keeneland and then just got moving too late in the Wonder Again when again caught behind a slow early tempo. As long as Jose Ortiz can work out a trip through traffic I think she’ll be tough to hold off. Chad Brown has two of her main rivals in Nazuna and Minaun. Nazuna could take more money as she drops out of a wide trip in the Belmont Oaks. She, too, will appreciate cutting back in distance, but it remains to be seen if she’s quite good enough to beat this field. I’m more interested in Minaun, who is my top pick. She got a wide trip in the Lake George last time when finishing behind talented stablemate Technical Analysis. And prior to that she should have won the Wild Applause but she got caught in traffic when attempting to rally in upper stretch, was forced to wait, and had to settle for second. I think getting back to one turn is going to be the key for her and I like the rider switch to Luis Saez. I also wouldn’t completely dismiss Runaway Rumour, who defeated Minaun in that Wild Applause. However, she has to work out a trip from an outside post position.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,7,12
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 5,6,7,9,12