by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 7 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 1A - 7
Race 9: 2 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 10:
3 - 8 - 5 - 2
RACE 2: MIMI AND CHARLEY (#8)
I’m not thrilled with the horses who figures to be short prices in this race. I suppose Shannon’s Girl will be the favorite off her pair of second-place finishes at this level, but I didn’t think she ran particularly well on either occasion. It’s a good sign that Brad Cox is claiming her back, but she’s going to attract even more support due to this switch. I’ll use her defensively because I still prefer her to the other two likely favorites, Bean Counter and To a Friend. The former wasn’t facing the strongest field in her maiden race at Gulfstream and she’s been off for a long time, while the latter has shown no indication that she wants to sprint on turf. I think there are some horses switching surfaces who could make their presence felt in this spot. One of those is Champagne Bliss, who returns from a layoff and switches to the barn of Mike Stidham. This stable is 7 for 18 (39%, $2.45 ROI) first off a trainer switch in turf sprints between 5 and 7 furlongs over the past 5 years. While she didn’t do much running in her lone turf start, that came against a much tougher field and she has a right to do better now as a 3-year-old. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Mimi and Charley, who figures to be an even bigger price. She showed little in her dirt debut two months ago, but now she’s dropping in class and she really has more of a turf pedigree. She’s by 13% turf sire Creative Cause out of a Street Boss mare, so that’s enough grass influence right there. Her dam never tried turf, but she has produced a full-brother who is a minor winner on this surface. The dam is also a half-sister to Bryan’s Jewel, a multiple stakes winner on turf. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz is a positive sign and she should move forward since Ray Handal almost never has horses cranked up to win their debuts.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Box: 2,6,8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,7
RACE 4: MY HAPPY PLACE (#1)
Tan and Tight is a deserving favorite after losing by just a length in both of her turf sprint starts at Saratoga. She was facing a couple of fields that were probably stronger than this one, so it stands to reason that she should be able to break through this time. However, there are some intriguing new faces in this group. One of those is drawn just to her outside in Smack, who returns from a lengthy layoff. This filly has needed a ton of time between each start, and that’s usually not a great sign. However, she did show real ability in that second start at Gulfstream, finishing a tiring third behind subsequent Grade 1 winner Cambier Parc. It just seemed like the distance got to her that day, so this turnback makes sense. The Christophe Clement barn is heating up lately, but this filly isn’t totally trustworthy. I’ll use both of these, as well as a well-bred firster like Kitana, but the horse that interests me most is a first time turfer. My Happy Place makes her first start on this surface and four straight dirt races. While it might seem counterintuitive that McGaughey ran her on dirt so many times if she’s turf-meant, he’s a trainer who tends to exhaust opportunities on one surface without hastily switching to another. Over the past five years, McGaughey is 8 for 36 (22%, $2.41 ROI) with 3-year-old and older maidens switching to grass for the first time, so he isn’t just having success with youngsters doing this. My Happy Place doesn’t have a traditional turf pedigree, but she is by good turf influence Tapit out of a Tiz Wonderful mare. She has a turfy way of moving and I suspect she may be just fine over this surface.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 7,8 with ALL
RACE 5: VICTORINE (#8)
Chad Brown has a strong hand in this interesting optional claiming race. Reversethedecision seems like the stronger half of his uncoupled pair, though there are some questions to answer as she makes her first start since October of her 3-year-old season. She showed a ton of talent last year, nearly winning a stakes in just her third start before holding her own against graded stakes company to close out the year. Something seemingly went wrong for her to only be making her 4-year-old debut in September, but she now appears to be training well for her return and she’s likely to win if she produces her top effort. I’m using her prominently, but I think some others will offer better value. Sweet Bye and Bye scares me a bit as she stretches back out in distance. It’s hard to say if she’s a better turf horse or dirt horse since she hasn’t routed on turf since she was a 3-year-old. I actually don’t mind the distance for her and she figures to work out a good trip either on the lead or stalking Tanya’s Gem. She’s a threat, but my top pick is Victorine. This filly just didn’t seem quite ready for her return from the layoff last time, as she never produced a kick while one-paced through the lane. That was going a flat mile on the inner turf course at Saratoga, and those races can often play to speed. I like this distance better for her, and she appears to be working with improved energy out of that first start back. Christophe Clement has been having a strong meet at Belmont so far. This filly showed her quality in France as a 3-year-old and she should be a square price given the presence of some others who have to take more money.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 8 with 1,5 with 1,4,5,6,7
RACE 7: RED KNIGHT (#3)
Christophe Clement has done a tremendous job getting the once difficult-to-handle Gucci Factor to fulfill his potential this year. He comes into this race having won 6 of his last 7 starts on the turf, his only loss during that time coming in this very race last year. The plan was always to skip Saratoga with him, so he comes into this race fresh. I have the utmost respect for this talented horse, but I’m a little concerned about him stretching back out to the nine-furlong distance. His main rival appears to be Offering Plan, who has inherited the role of elder statesman of his New York-bred turf division. He gamely battled back to win the West Point last time, proving that he can still put forth a top effort. I had always thought he was better going shorter, but Gucci Factor bested him over a flat mile back in May, so it’s possible that he's gained stamina with age. I’m using him prominently, but I think there’s a third major player in this field who may get somewhat overlooked. It might be tempting to dismiss Red Knight on the basis that he’s tailing off after a strong start to the year. However, you can make some excuses for his last few efforts. He got a curious trip in the Belmont Gold Cup, as Jose Ortiz launched a premature backstretch move which cost him in the late stages. While he finished last in the Bowling Green, he was never in a comfortable spot while going wide around every turn. Throw out the dirt effort last time, and you can go back to his Elkhorn when he put in a graded stakes-level performance. Perhaps 1 1/8 miles is a little short for him, but the talent is there and he was in career form not that long ago.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 7,8 with 4,5,6,7,8
RACE 8: CACHE (#4)
Violencia generated plenty of buzz in that impressive debut at Gulfstream over the winter, but that came over 7 months ago. The quality of that race was bolstered when highly-touted runner-up Palomita returned to win her next start, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 9 points. However, there are some conflicting trainer statistics for Rodolphe Brisset with this filly. He’s 2-for-23 (9%, $0.55 ROI) off layoffs of 150 days or more, yet he’s 9-for-16 (56%, $7.83 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on the dirt over the past 5 years. She’s the horse to beat, but the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which is no surprise given that about 5 runners in this field do their best work on the front end. I’m using her, but I think she’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. The entry has to be taken seriously, primarily due to the seemingly weaker half Slimey. I’ve never been this filly’s biggest fan, but she’s the one true closer in a race filled with speed. The major question for some others is whether or not they can adapt to the likely flow of this race so that they work out the right trip. I’m hoping that Cache is one who can make that adjustment. This 4-year-old figures to be a square price in this spot, and I think she’s due to rebound with a better effort. She’s just not a turf horse so I can excuse her last race, and she probably needed that race two back since it was her first start in nearly a year. She had shown real promise as a 3-year-old, but never really stepped forward following her debut. She’s shown the ability to pass horses, so I’m somewhat hopeful that she can adapt to closing tactics in this race. Manny Franco has been riding well and I’m just not enamored with any of her rivals.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7
RACE 9: WAR CANOE (#2)
Fifty Five hasn’t lost one of these statebred stakes events since La Moneda beat her in 2018, and there aren’t any foes of that mare’s quality in here. She towers over these from a class perspective, but it is fair to question her current form. She’s looked more dominant in past years and seemed pretty vulnerable when losing at Parx two back. Her narrow loss in the Ballston Spa was more encouraging, and she’s proven she handles this distance. She is clearly a deserving favorite, but she’s nearly a cinch, and I’m not quite convinced. Munchkin Money appears to be the main danger. She looked to have the victory all sewn up coming to the eighth pole of the Yaddo, but longshot Belle of the Spa battled back in the late stages, denying her a long-awaited stakes win. She’s been a consistent presence in these races for the better part of a year and has arguably been in career form since the trainer switch to Clement. She was taken out of her game to press the pace last time, but will be able to get a more comfortable trip here. I’m using her prominently, but there are some other alternatives to consider at better prices. My top pick is War Canoe. She’s contested these state-bred stakes before without ever really threatening, but those starts all came for Gary Contessa. She put in one of the best efforts of her career off the claim for Danny Gargan last time, showing improved tactical speed before running away late. She was then claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who is 10 for 39 (26%, $2.96 ROI) first off the claim in turf routes over five years. This mare drew a perfect post position for this distance, and it’s always a good sign when Linda Rice gets aggressive.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 6,7,9
Trifecta: 2 with 6,9 with 4,6,7,8,9