by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 10 - 11
Race 5:   8 - 9 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 9 - 7 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 9 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   7 - 11 - 3 - 4
Race 10:   1 - 10 - 12 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 4: CANDIRITA (#2)
Frontier Market is likely to go off at a short price once again despite having finished second by slim margins in four straight races. While some may view those defeats as disappointments, the last thee losses came at the hands of some talented Chad Brown-trained stablemates. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I don’t think he has that much margin for error as he once again faces Hierarchy. This Shug McGaughey trainee showed ability in his debut, where he was running on belatedly, and he took a nice step forward second time out. He didn’t quite have the necessary turn of foot to make a late impact in that Aug. 2 race against Frontier Market, so I’m a little surprised that McGaughey is running him back at a flat mile rather than stretching him out farther. I think he’s a top threat, but I want to look elsewhere given that these two are likely to go off at short prices. I’ve been waiting for Candirita to get a chance on turf since his debut. This horse found himself in a very tough spot when he was unveiled on July 6, so I won’t hold it against him that he finished last. He did improve last time out in an easier spot, but he was against the track profile, as inside speed was very dangerous on Aug. 19. Now, Brian Lynch is finally switching him to the surface that his pedigree suggests should be his preference. He’s by decent turf sire Candy Ride, and there are plenty of turf influences in his female family. His dam never tried turf and won her only start on a synthetic surface. However, she comes from a female family that is very turf-oriented. Her sire, Rimrod, gets turf runners, and she is out of a full sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Tikkanen and a three-quarter sister to multiple Group 1 turf winner Turgeon. Candirita moves like a horse who should take to the grass, and he’s likely to go off at a square price given the presence of the two favorites.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 7,10
 

RACE 5: MARENGO ROAD (#8)
Souper Tapit seems like the horse to beat off a pair of solid tries going nine furlongs at Saratoga. While he lost by less than two lengths two back, he was never a true threat to Exulting that day as the winner pulled himself up in the final eighth of a mile. Souper Tapit ran a better race last time as he made a sweeping move to take a brief lead past midstretch before getting run down by the classy Carlino late. Turning back to a one-turn race is uncharted territory, but he’s a deserving favorite. Hammerin Aamer also deserves some respect as he makes his second start off the layoff. He ran very well to win late on the Belmont Stakes card two back going today’s distance. He employed frontrunning tactics that day, but he used a different strategy when he returned at Laurel last time. The pace of that Aug. 16 race was very slow (indicated by blue color-coded TimeformUS Pace Figures in PPs), and Hammerin Aamer actually did well to close for second. He’s stepping up in class here, but he’s proven that he’s capable of competing against foes of this quality in the past. I’m using both of these horses, but my top pick is Marengo Road. Mike Trombetta has campaigned this 5-year-old ridgling primarily on turf over the past couple of seasons, but he’s actually a pretty good dirt horse. He was a minor stakes winner on dirt as a 3-year-old, and he’s run speed figures that would make him very competitive here in two of his last three dirt races. I liked his most recent effort at Delaware, in which he gamely chased home the talented Dr. Blarney, who loves to win races. If he’s able to repeat that effort, I think he has a big chance, and he’s probably going to be a decent price.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,4,9
 

RACE 6: DREAM PASSAGE (#2)
Hannah’s Smile is obviously the one to beat as she finally gets a chance to run again after an unplanned three-month layoff. This filly was among the unluckiest runners from the perspective of races coming off the turf at Saratoga. She was entered on a number of occasions and was rained off each time. Prior to the break, she had run quite well in both of her 2018 starts. She was too close to a fast pace when she made her seasonal debut in May and then she took a good late run at controlling speed Awsum Roar last time. She might have beaten that rival had the winner not drifted out in the lane, but it was a solid performance regardless. I think she’s formidable, but I’m taking a shot against her with Dream Passage. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems possible given the presence of likely speeds Shrink, Cirque, and Breezy Gal. If they’re moving quickly up front, I think that greatly enhances the chances of Dream Passage, who possesses a potent late kick. She showed that turn of foot last time when she rocketed from last to first in the final quarter mile of a starter allowance race. I thought her performance was better than the speed figure indicates, and I’m not going to be surprised if she’s able to step up in class here. Prior to the claim by Brad Cox, she had shown her class against some tough maiden fields. I always love to have Joel Rosario aboard in a turf sprint, and she’s going to be a much better price than the favorite. Behind these two, I think the race is fairly wide open among the rest. If Wantagh Queen draws into the main body of the field I’d also use her underneath at a price, and I think Breezy Gal has a shot to get into the mix off the layoff for Linda Rice.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,9
Trifecta: 2,9 with 2,9 with 5,7,11,12
 

RACE 7: FEELING BOSSY (#6)
Many of the top contenders in the John Hettinger exit last month’s Yaddo at Saratoga. Lady Joan nearly pulled off a significant upset in that race, as she almost took the field wire to wire before just getting run down by La Moneda in the final strides. The Phil Serpe-trained filly was able to take advantage of a turf course that seemed to be favoring inside speed, which may have worked against that race’s favorite, Fifty Five. The Chad Brown trainee is going to be favored again here, but her edge over this group is fairly thin. Fifty Five lost at short prices in both the Yaddo and Mount Vernon, so she’s searching for her first New York-bred stakes victory since last fall’s Ticonderoga. She’s the horse to beat, but 1 1/8 miles has always been a stretch for her, and this is a tough field. I’m most interested in one of those who finished farther back in the Yaddo. Feeling Bossy never threatened that day as she chased Lady Joan early and faded through the lane. She’s hard to like off that effort, but it’s possible that she needed the race since she was returning from a brief layoff. She also might just strongly prefer Belmont Park, as she has recorded five of her seven career victories at this venue. She was in fantastic form for Jason Servis earlier this year, and she proved that she could handle cut in the ground when she won the Mount Vernon over “good” going. Furthermore, she figures to be aided by the stretch-out to nine furlongs.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,7,9
 

RACE 8: HIGHWAY STAR (#4)
This Gallant Bloom drew a very competitive field in which all 7 of the entrants has a legitimate chance to win. The likely favorite is Lewis Bay, one of three fillies exiting the Grade 1 Ballerina. While she was somewhat disappointing in finishing third that day, that was hardly her best effort. If she can run back to her performance in the Bed O Roses two back, she’s going to be pretty formidable in this spot. That day she was able to race right up on a moderate pace, and a similar scenario could play out in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and she figures to be right up there, if not leading the field through the opening furlongs. I’m using her, but she once again faces a legitimate rival in Still There, who edged her out for second in the Ballerina last time. Still There has obviously improved this summer for Dane Kobiskie and she will be formidable if she repeats her Ballerina effort. Union Strike may have had the toughest trip of the trio exiting the Ballerina as she was hindered by the slow pace in that race. However, she’s likely to face a similar race flow in this spot. I’m taking a shot against these fillies with Highway Star, who figures to go off at a much more enticing price. Some may argue that this filly has not returned in top form this year, and I think there’s some merit to that point of view. However, it’s not as if she’s run that badly. I thought she bounced back very well in the Ruffian in early May, as she made the first move and just got tired late. She did well to survive a fast pace in the Critical Eye next time out, and then I feel that she may have reacted negatively to coming back on just 11 days’ rest in the Bed O Roses. Based on the TimeformUS Speed Figures hat she’s earned in her last three races, she’s just as fast as she ever was. She missed the Ballerina due to a minor ailment, but she had reportedly been training well prior to that. She has the tactical speed to sit just off Lewis Bay early and you know she’s going to give you everything she has if she’s still in contention at the quarter pole.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL
 

RACE 9: GUCCI FACTOR (#7)
Chad Brown has entered a formidable duo in this race. The one likely to attract the most support is Call Provision, and he is a deserving favorite. This gelding nearly won this race last year when he was just nosed out by Get Jets, and he appears to have improved since then. There’s little doubt in my mind that Call Provision is the most talented runner in this race, but he really is at his best going longer distances than this. His ideal trip is around 1 3/8 miles, and I’m not sure that most bettors will make that distinction. I’m using him, but others will offer better value. Chad Brown’s other horse, Offering Plan, is less appealing to me. He, too, may not be well suited by the 9-furlong distance of this race, though he is better going a bit shorter. He had a slightly tougher trip than winner Kharafa in the West Point last time, but I was still somewhat disappointed with his performance, considering that he was the 3/5 favorite that day. I’m using him, but I think it’s wise to look beyond the Chad Brown pair. I think there are two intriguing new faces in this bunch, both of whom are ascended through their allowance conditions this summer. Red Knight is the one that figures to attract the most attention. This likeable son of Pure Prize is just two noses shy of having won all 7 of his career starts, and he just seems to keep getting better with each successive race. Like Call Provision, I do believe he’s slightly better going longer distances than this, but he’s nevertheless a major player. My top pick is Gucci Factor, who may get somewhat ignored in this spot. He is stepping up in class, but Christophe Clement had him in career form when he was last seen earlier in the summer. He was a tricky horse to figure out early in his career, but he seems to finally be putting it all together now that they’re focusing on turf races. I thought his most recent start on July 11 was really good. Dr. Edgar has come back in raging form in 2018, and he’s backed up that speed figure with two excellent efforts since then. Gucci Factor did get a good setup ahead of him that day, but he still made the first move into a strong pace and separated himself from the rest of the closers. He finished well ahead of today’s rival Rapt, who has been competitive in some of these New York-bred stakes races, so the form translates well. I’m not concerned about the layoff, since Christophe Clement stated after the last race that he planned to skip Saratoga with this horse. Gucci Factor has a running style that will allow him to make his own good trip and I think the 9-furlong distance will be perfect for him.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,11
Trifecta: 7 with 3,11 with 2,3,4,7,10,11