by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 8 - 12 - 11 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 12 - 6 - 10
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 12 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 8 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 2 - 11 - 10 - 3
RACE 1: BABY BEAR’S SOUP (#1)
He’s not going to be any kind of generous price in this race, but I just had trouble getting past Baby Bear’s Soup in the opener. After going off form
this winter, David Jacobson has gotten this horse back on track ever since his return in July. He ran well at this level two back, and then followed that
up with a game try sprinting on the turf last time. David Jacobson has awesome numbers with this kind of surface switch. Over the past five years, he
is 34 for 116 (29 percent, $2.60 ROI) with horses going from turf to schedule dirt sprints, excluding off the turf races. Furthermore, Jacobson has
come out firing at this Belmont meet, winning a bunch of races in the first few weeks. Behind him, I’ll use the logical Scarf It Down, who got a perfect
trip last time but has really improved for Jeremiah Englehart, and Set the Trappe, who is claimed back by the Robertino Diodoro barn.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,7
RACE 2: KHARAFA (#6)
This is primarily a two-horse race between the two runners who finished first and third in the West Point at Saratoga. Get Jets is clearly the horse to
beat after winning that race, but he did so with a perfect trip. The early pace was extremely fast and John Velazquez gave him an awesome ride,
saving ground around the turns before angling out in the stretch. I thought Kharafa had the more taxing trip. He was bumped at the start, which put
him farther back than he otherwise might have been. From there, Joe Bravo coaxed him into making a prolonged two- to three-wide move, which
made him vulnerable to Get Jets’s late rush. This time, Kharafa’s positional speed should be an asset in a race lacking much early speed. He’s won
this race in three of the last four years and absolutely loves Belmont Park.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 5 with 2,3,7
RACE 3: MRS. RAMONA G (#8)
Of those with turf experience, I’m most afraid of Lady Blessings, who ran a decent race against what may have been a tougher field last time at
Saratoga. She can win, as can My Bronx Tail, who makes her turf debut after a couple of starts on the main track. Her dam never won on the turf, but
was Grade 3-placed on that surface. I’ll use them, but I’m most interested in a first-time starter. Mrs. Ramona G is bred to be a talented turf sprinter.
She is by 15 percent turf sire Kantharos, who does even better with his sprinters. Her dam was unraced, but she has produced a turf sprint winner,
and is out of Beneficial Bartok, a turf sprint specialist who was competitive in multiple stakes events. This filly worked a strong quarter-mile in 20 4/5
seconds at the OBS sale, and goes out for a capable turf sprint trainer.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,10,11,12
RACE 4: HIGH PROMISE (#5)
The two obvious horses that are going to take money are Im the Captain Now and Peace Speaker. The former has run well in his recent starts at or around this distance, but he’s starting to run out of chances, and the latter must prove that he can negotiate the 10 furlongs after two strong runs going shorter. I’ll use both, but I want try a runner that figures to offer a bit more value. High Promise showed some promise early in his career, finishing a closing fourth in a solid maiden race at Belmont last October. After that, he didn’t get to try the turf again until he returned as a three-year-old this summer. He was moving well late to be fourth in that July 28 return, and followed that up with an improved performance when cut back to a mile on September 9. He found a seam on the rail that day, and made the lead prematurely approaching the stretch. He appeared to lose focus when clear and got passed by the eventual winner. Having dropped 2 lengths behind that runner with a furlong to go, he re-rallied well to make it close on the line. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse yet, and I’m encouraged that he showed improved tactical speed with the blinkers added last time, since there isn’t much early pace in this race.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,9,10,12
RACE 6: QUEEN OF CASTLE (#3)
Lightly raced runners such as Pinchbeck and Lem Me Dance figure to take plenty of action in here. Both have run reasonably well in their races
against winners and can certainly win this race, but I think there’s a dangerous contender that will offer much better value in this spot. I know
Michelle Nevin is not known as a turf trainer, but the trainer switch on Queen of Castle is nevertheless a significant one. Her prior trainer did a fine
job with her, but he has not exactly had much success on this circuit. Michelle Nevin claimed this horse for Michael Dubb, who is as shrewd as they
come with acquisitions like this. Furthermore, it’s not as if Queen of Castle needs to improve that much to turn the tables on her competitors. There
is not much speed in this race, and she’s one that figures to be placed relatively close to the pace.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3,9,12
RACE 7: PROPER FREUD (#8)
Cause for Surprise is a deserving favorite here, but he’s not the kind of runner I want to bet. He was alarmingly dull last time. I know the track was
somewhat speed-favoring that day and horses on the inside seemed to have an advantage. However, he didn’t show any of his customary early
speed, which is a bad sign, especially as he drops in class. I’m trying to beat him with Proper Freud. At first glance, I know this horse appears to be a
bit too slow to win this race, but I think there are some things to like. First, his Finger Lakes efforts are not as bad as they seem. He got some odd
rides in a couple of those starts from a low-percentage rider, and he really wants to go a bit farther than those abbreviated sprint distances. I take it
as a positive sign that David Jacobson is bringing him back to NYRA, and he was competitive in tougher races as recently as last winter.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,7,9