PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   13 - 10 - 12 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   12 - 9 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 13 - 9 - 12
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 2 - 11
Race 8:   7 - 13 - 12 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 10:   9 - 2 - 12 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 4: SHIPSATIONAL (#1)
Senbei figures to go favored in this Bertram F. Bongard as he seeks to win his third race in as many career starts. He defeated two of today’s rivals when dominating the Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga, leading every step of the way. However, he also stayed out of trouble that day by using his speed, as there were some traffic and kickback issues for those in behind. He’s clearly a talented runner, but I’m not convinced that he necessarily gets better with added distance and he could face some pace pressure from Whittington Park. I prefer Shipsational out of the Funny Cide. This colt sustained two very hard bumps coming out of the starting gate, which put him towards the back of the pack early. He tried to advance on the far turn but found more traffic there as he had to wait in traffic, losing momentum behind Happy Happy B when that one altered course. He had to swing very wide for the stretch drive but was finishing best of all late once he got into the clear. He figures to be more forwardly placed in a stalking position this time, and I trust him to handle the extra half-furlong. Happy Happy B is also a contender, but he got a great trip last time. I would have preferred to see him in a maiden race, but he should appreciate the added ground here as a half-brother to Keepmeinmind.

Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 2,3,4,5

RACE 5: KREESIE (#12)
Jill’s A Hot Mess comes into this race in career form, seeking her fourth victory in her last 5 starts after winning two in a row at Saratoga. However, she seemed to really appreciate that shorter 5 1/2 furlong distance at the Spa, and was also beating up on weaker company. This jump up in class from N1X to N2X company can be steep, and I’m not convinced that she can be as effective over 7 furlongs. Among the likely short prices, I prefer Silky Blue. I don’t love that she lost twice at short prices earlier this year, but I thought she had an excuse for her last race. While the pace may not look that fast, she was a little aggressive there, as the race was dominated by closers. I expect her to rebound for a barn that has really woken recently. Jorge Duarte is 14 for 38 (37%, $3.54 ROI) with all starters over the past 90 days, and this filly is getting back to her ideal 7-furlong distance. I think she’s the horse to beat, but I went in a different direction. My top pick is Kreesie on the drop in class. While she’s focused on route distances recently, she has run well sprinting many times in the past and is actually 2 for 4 at this specific distance. She’s coming off a poor result first off the claim, but she had no chance given her trip. She was wide most of the way in that Yaddo and got sawed off at the top of the stretch, at which point she was just eased home. I like the rider switch to Luis Saez for this turnback and she goes out for a barn that has been on fire through the first two weeks of the meet.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,6,9
Trifecta: 9,12 with 9,12 with 2,5,6,7

RACE 7: MADE MY DAY (#5)
Prefect is likely to take money first off the claim for Danny Gargan, who is an excellent 12 for 29 (41%, $3.34 ROI) first off the claim in turf routes over the past 5 years. However, I do have some questions about this horse’s ability at this distance. He improved and ran the best speed figures of his career when his former trainer stretched him out to marathon distances. His prior efforts at conventional route trips were merely ordinary and don’t give him any edge over this field. I much prefer Made My Day, who gets some slight class relief after picking up a few minor awards at the starter allowance level this summer. He faded to fifth at Saratoga last time, but he ran a lot better than it appears in that spot. He was forced to race wide every step of the way and made a premature move to challenge for the lead at the quarter pole. He’s better than that and I think he can work out a kinder trip here. There’s plenty of pace signed on so the field should be spread out enough for him to be able to tuck in and save more ground. A repeat of his performance two back should be good enough to beat these. I also would give a look to deep closer Agent Creed. He’s dropping out of a tougher spot last time when he faced allowance-level 3-year-olds. He’s very dependent on pace, but he ran well two back and could appreciate the return to Belmont Park.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,7,11

RACE 10: THEODORA GRACE (#9)
Back Channel isn’t the easiest horse to trust, but she will beat this field if she runs back to her effort two back when she beat open company maiden foes going this distance. She did get away with a favorable pace setup that day, but she did finish well, holding off a couple of decent rivals. She regressed significantly at Saratoga last time but that was too tough a spot for her and the trip just didn’t work out. She was wide every step of the way and had no finish. She should work out a better trip here, trying to get forwardly placed from this outside post position. I just prefer one of her main rivals. Theodora Grace went two turns in both starts at Saratoga and it seems like that may just be a little too far for her. She actually ran very well at the tougher starter allowance level last time, chasing a fast pace and challenging for the lead in mid-stretch before fading late. She’s been steadily improving and I think she’s going to appreciate this turnback to a sprint. There’s very little speed signed on, so Dylan Davis should have her forwardly placed once again. I would also use High School Crush, who gets a pretty significant trainer switch to Michelle Nevin, though this filly has obviously had her chances at this level.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,7,12