by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 2 - 3
RACE 5: ENLIVEN (#5)
This is a very well-matched group of 6 fillies, where all of the entrants have a legitimate chance to win. Most are coming out of races at Saratoga. Of those, the one that I want to bet is Enliven, who may go off as the favorite. She was bet down to a very short price in that Aug. 26 debut, and she disappointed. This filly had trained very forwardly prior to that race and just failed to show up against an admittedly mediocre group. I have trouble believing that the hype was totally undeserved, and I want to give her one more chance here. Kiaran McLaughlin does well with stretch-outs like this, and this filly is certainly bred to handle more ground as a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner It’s Tricky, making her a half-sister to Enticed. She appears to have the speed to make the lead here, but there are others that want to be forwardly placed as well. The trio of fillies coming out of the Sep. 2 race at 7 furlongs must be considered. I thought that Dovey Lovey ran the best race of any of them, as she got shuffled back early and did well to close for third in a race that otherwise held together on the front end. I’m using her, but I wonder if the added ground really helps her cause. Off Topic seems like one that should improve. Excess Capacity is a wild card as she ships in from Monmouth Park, but she’s going to take money merely because she’s trained by Chad Brown.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,4
RACE 6: HIGH PROMISE (#6)
I think you have to start out any analysis of this race by excusing a trio of runners for their performances in the Aug. 5 allowance race at this level. That turf course at Saratoga was legitimately soft, and only a handful of runners in that field seemed to handle the going. Gauguin clearly wanted no part of it, and he also was compromised by the race flow, as he was chasing a very fast pace for the distance. If Gauguin gets back to his prior efforts, he is going to be tough to beat. However, he’s also had plenty of chances to break through this level, and he’s failed at short prices under more favorable circumstances on a number of occasions. I think he has to be in the mix, but I prefer others. Sentry is somewhat intriguing as he stretches out in distance for Shug McGaughey. This horse took a while to come around, but he appears to be in the best form of his career, and Shug has a way of getting these runners to excel at marathon distances. I’m using him, but the horse I think will most appreciate the stretch-out is High Promise. I’ve always thought that more distance is better for this son of Mizzen Mast, and I’ve been baffled by his connections’ insistence on running him shorter. He ran very well when losing a 10-furlong maiden race last fall, and his only other effort at a marathon distance resulted in a decisive maiden win two back at Saratoga. I loved the ride that Manny Franco gave him that day, as this horse needs to be placed in the clear. High Promise can get rank when he’s in behind horses, and he tends to find trouble if he’s too far back. This time, he figures to work out a good trip stalking from midpack, and I think he’s the most likely winner.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,7 with ALL
RACE 7: COVER MODEL (#6)
Tapping Colors is the one to beat based on her superior turf speed figures. If she runs back to any of her efforts from the summer, she is going to be awfully tough for this field to handle. At the same time, she’s had plenty of chances to break through this level. It’s fair to argue that this is the softest turf race in which she’s participated in quite some time, but I think she faces at least one legitimate rival in Cover Model. While it’s hard to decipher her true level of ability from her two career starts, I get the sense that this filly has some talent. Her debut is better than it seems. That was a race that was primarily dominated towards the front end, and she did well to close from last after getting shuffled back in the early portions of the race. I know she didn’t beat today’s rival Her Latest Film by much, but I thought she ran the better race considering that she was a first time starter that experienced adversity. Dirt is not her preferred surface, but I thought she took a subtle step forward last time, and now she gets back to turf. This filly is bred to be a good one as a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Imagining and other solid runners. I also appreciate that she worked very well prior to her debut, and I think she still has a right to be a nice filly.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 7 with ALL
RACE 9: MISS TECHNICALITY (#7)
There’s a lot of hype around Newspaperofrecord, and much of it appears to be justified. You just don’t see horses win maiden races by huge margins on turf, especially in their career debuts. There’s no reason to think that she wasn’t meeting a solid group of runners in that Aug. 19 race, and she absolutely trounced them. It’s possible that she really relished the yielding going, but she’s likely to once again race over a turf course with some give to it. She is the most likely winner based on that performance, but I seriously doubt that she will offer any value. After all, this is a pretty salty edition of the Miss Grillo, and it’s not as if there aren’t other very talented runners in this field. In particular, I believe that Miss Technicality could be a serious rival for the favorite. I know she hasn’t received quite as much hype as the Chad Brown filly, but she’s done everything right in her first couple of starts. It’s remarkable that she won going six furlongs in her debut considering that her pedigree is tilted toward stamina. She wasn’t facing the toughest stakes field at Kentucky Downs last time, but she seemed to love every bit of the one-mile distance as she easily bounded away in the final furlongs. This filly has been outworking some older stablemates in the morning all summer, and I think she’s quietly developing into a top-class runner. If Miss Technicality is at or above her 3-1 morning-line odds, I’m willing to take a shot against the favorite with this filly. A couple of fillies are coming out of the P. G. Johnson at Saratoga. Dogtag will take some money as Chad Brown’s other entrant in this race, but I actually prefer the runner-up Varenka, who had a tougher trip and now gets Lasix for the first time. I also would not completely discount Stellar Agent, who showed a ton of ability – albeit over a sprint distance – in her initial start.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,6,9
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with 2,5,9