by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 10 - 9 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   5 - 2 - 4 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: QIAN B C (#3)
Worth a Shot figures to be the favorite in this spot off that second-place finish in his turf debut, in which he defeated today’s rival Qian B C. I suppose he has a right to move forward off that effort, but he missed a few opportunities to run at Saratoga and is now returning from a brief layoff. I’m also not convinced that less distance is necessarily what this horse needs. He’s a full-brother to Voodoo Song, who won going route distances on the turf and this horse was actually entered to go two turns at Saratoga on a couple of occasions, getting rained off or stuck on the also-eligible list. While it’s tempting to downgrade a horse who has had so many chances, I think Qian B C is a much better fit for this spot. He arguably ran the better race when they met on June 29, as Qian B C made a premature move to the lead going a distance that may be a bit too far for him. Then last time, Qian B C was held up in traffic early and was just coming too late behind a couple of superior rivals. Joel Rosario has made a few mistakes on this runner in his prior starts, but he’s a jockey who learns from those errors and will make changes. The horse is clearly in top form right now and I think the 6-furlong distance will be perfect for him.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2 with 1,4,5,6
 

RACE 5: BRILLIANT BROOKS (#2)
Maxwell Esquire has to be considered the horse to beat off his encouraging debut, in which he rallied well through the stretch to finish second behind a more experienced rival. He is bred to be a useful turf runner as a half-brother to multiple turf winners Memories of Peter, Image of Disco, and Image of Noon. If he builds on his debut at all, he’s going to be difficult for these to handle. However, Christophe Clement is just 5 for 33 (15%, $0.62 ROI) with second-time starting maidens in turf routes over five years. Nevertheless, he’s a deserving favorite. I’d also use Portfolio Hedge, the first time starter for Chad Brown. This stable seems to target some of their turf 2-year-olds for the Belmont fall meet and this colt has enough pedigree to handle today’s scenario. However, I generally prefer runners with experience in these races. My top pick is Brilliant Brooks. He lost his debut by 18 lengths, but that was due to the misfortune of finding himself in the same race as Tiz the Law, who earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure in that winning debut. He now tries turf, and he’s certainly bred for it. Candy Ride is a 10% first time turf and 13% overall turf sire, and the dam earned all three of her victories on turf with a top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 103 on that surface. Jeremiah Englehart is 4 for 19 (21%, $3.65 ROI) with second time starting maidens trying turf for the first time. I think this one is going to take a big step forward on the surface switch.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,7,9,10
Trifecta: 2,10 with 2,10 with 1,4,7,8,9
 

RACE 7: FIFTYSHAYS OFGREEN (#2)
I think there’s some quality to this field of maidens going a mile on the dirt. Abilene Trail figures to get bet down to favoritism after an encouraging debut at Saratoga in which she finished behind a pair of more experienced runners, including Mrs. Danvers, who figures to be a top contender in the fall stakes for 2-year-old fillies. Abilene Trail showed good speed that day and she’s bred to stretch out in distance being a daughter of Curlin from a strong Phipps family. I’m using her prominently, but there are some others to consider. Lucky Dime has a right to improve second time out, as does Striking Beauty, another with a pedigree that says she wants to go longer. I would also give some consideration to Maedean, who is bred to be a nice filly as a daughter of Tapit out of the Grade 1-placed turfer Summer Solo. She appears to be training like a horse who will appreciate longer distances, and Mark Hennig has had some success debuting horses in dirt routes, winning with the last two he sent out. You can make valid cases for all of these, but I’m most interested in Fiftyshays ofgreen, who ships in from Parx for John Servis. I respect this barn when they ship in to New York, and Servis has especially strong statistics with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 10 for 27 (37%, $3.57 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt in routes. Her debut was just way too short for her, and I have a feeling they only ran her on turf last time to get her an opportunity to go longer. She has the pedigree of a dirt router, being by Bernardini out of a full sister to multiple Grade 1 dirt route winner Composure. I like that they’re reaching out to Joel Rosario, who rode Jaywalk for these connections.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7
 

RACE 8: NEVERLAND ROCK (#7)
This is a very confusing race, so perhaps I’m falling into a trap by landing on a horse that is unlikely to be much of a price. However, it’s hard to envision anyone going off at particularly short odds in this incredibly wide-open race. The leading contenders are coming out of the Mahony, which was won so impressively by top 3-year-old turf sprinter Archidust. Uncle Benny was the second choice that day as he was returning from a lengthy layoff following a heartbreaking loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year. Uncle Benny did have an excuse in that return, as he stumbled leaving the gate and spotted the field a couple of lengths. However, he never really picked it up after that and was losing ground at the end. It’s unclear if this horse has returned in top form and I’m also not convinced that he’s truly a turf sprinter. The horse that I want out of that race is Neverland Rock. I had never been this horse’s biggest fan prior to the Saratoga meet, but you can’t dispute that he’s significantly improved over the course of his last two starts. He was arguably best when third in the Quick Call two back after chasing a fast pace for the distance. Last time he got a good trip, but he still did well to chase Archidust home while crossing the wire well clear of the rest of the field. Some may be skeptical about him transferring that form back to Belmont, but he actually ran pretty well in that June 9 allowance here while still on his way up the class ladder. I just think he makes a ton of sense, and he’s likely to get a good trip in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting that those near the lead will have an advantage. I’ll also use the main speed No Bang No Boom and the closing Elektronic, but both would need to improve to claim the top prize.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,6 with 1,2,3,4,6,8