by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 8 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: EMPIRE OF WAR (#4)
This is the first 2-year-old dirt route at NYRA in 2018. While it drew only five contestants, it’s actually a fascinating race. The three runners drawn toward the outside are likely to attract the most attention. Chad Brown entered a pair, including likely favorite Aurelius Maximus. This horse clearly is bred to handle the distance as a son of Pioneerof the Nile from a solid female family of routers on dirt and turf. He was heavily supported in his debut at Saratoga, but he ran like a horse who just didn’t possess the quickness to win going six furlongs. He figures to be right on top of the early pace going this distance, and he’s just the horse to beat. Furthermore, Aurelius Maximus has been working in company with stablemate Fullness of Time in the mornings, and he got the better of that one on at least one occasion. Fullness of Time is by the solid stamina influence Flatter, but there are sprint influences in his female family. While he comes out of one of the fastest maiden races of the Saratoga meet, I thought he was just picking up pieces to be second that day. The second-time starter who interests me most is Empire of War. Todd Pletcher had a shockingly disappointing Saratoga meet with his 2-year-olds. None of his first-time starters crossed the wire in front during the entire meet (one was put up via disqualification). Among the most frustrating results had to be the loss by Empire of War in his Aug. 11 debut. This horse was heavily touted prior to that race and just seemed to struggle throughout that seven-furlong event. It seems unlikely that a horse who had trained so well for Pletcher wouldn’t have ability, so I’m willing to give this one another chance. Furthermore, based on the way these runners ran in their debuts, he could be the controlling speed. The one other horse I want to throw into the mix is Pointer View, who will be a bigger price. Anthony Dutrow does well with second-time starters stretching out, and this one probably needed his first start.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with ALL
 

RACE 5: LEZENDARY (#5)
Hay Field will be strongly favored to extend her winning streak as she steps up in class once again. This filly has been an outstanding claim for her connections. She’s won four of five starts since getting taken for $25,000, and a win here would put her earnings since then at more than $200,000. Despite the fact that she’s stepping up to a higher allowance level, this is arguably a softer spot than the N1X race she won last time. I think the main concern for Hay Field is a different pace dynamic in this race. She got a great setup last time, but there is not nearly as much speed signed on here. That could make Full House dangerous off the layoff, but she’s not the easiest filly to trust as the likely second choice. She always threatened to be a better horse than she actually was, and it’s not clear that she’s at her best going this short. I actually prefer Lezendary, who figures to be contesting the pace with that filly. Lezendary is hard to like off her current form, but I think you can make some excuses for her. She probably isn’t at her best over a wet track, so I’m willing to be forgiving of her races at Pimlico and Saratoga. Two back, she got involved in an early duel with the superior filly Sower, so that effort is not quite as bad as it looks. Lezendary was once capable of running races fast enough to win here, and her recent bullet workout at Belmont suggests that she may be heading in the right direction once again.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6
 

RACE 8: DREAMCALL (#2)
The distance is a question for a few of the contenders in this race. Berned will likely inherit the favorite’s role after the expected scratch of Divine Miss Grey. She earned another win at Monmouth – obviously her favorite racetrack – last time in the Molly Pitcher, but she also got a great trip that day. In both of her wins going route distances at the New Jersey track, she has made early moves to the lead and just lasted in the late stages. I realize that she’s run some of her best races going this distance in the past, but I’ve always thought of her as a better closing sprinter, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of today’s rivals beat her. No Need to Appeal has even more questions to answer when it comes to stamina. She handled route distances in two wins as a 3-year-old, but she did so against weaker company and she didn’t earn speed figures that would make her competitive here. Her last win was a step in the right direction and she figures to work out a good trip stalking Come Dancing. On the other hand, she’s going to be a short price after the scratch and I’m not totally convinced that she’s really this good. I want to bet Dreamcall, who just appears to be coming into this race in the best form of her career. She wants every bit of this 1 1/16 miles distance and I think she’s really going to appreciate the configuration of Belmont Park. She’s a filly that doesn’t seem to run the turns very well at smaller tracks and really gets going once she straightens away in the lane. Steve Asmussen has had her in New York for a while prepping for a race like this, and I think she’s capable of wearing them down in the final eighth of a mile.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL