PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   6 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 9 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I don’t have a major problem with either favorite in this opener, other than the fact that they figure to be short prices in a weak race for the level. Short Shift (#1) did earn her highest speed figure on turf last time, but her lone dirt performance is better than it looks. She blew the start that day and raced keenly down the backstretch while advancing along the rail. I thought her rider overcommitted to the inside path on a day when you probably didn’t want to be right on top of the rail. She still has some upside in just her third start. Foxy Cara (#5) ran a race two back that would make her pretty tough here if she were able to repeat it. She ran better than it appears last time when she lost significant momentum on the turn before rallying again in the lane. However, now she’s stretching out to a mile and I’m not totally convinced that added ground suits her. My top pick is Ichiban (#4). This filly ran like one that just needed the experience in her debut at Fair Grounds. She took some money when she switched into the Linda Rice barn two back, and ran better than the result suggests. She was contesting the pace while racing along the rail during a time when the inside path was a disadvantage at Aqueduct. She faded along the inside in upper stretch, but was still trying late once Lezcano angled her off it. I don’t care about the turf race last time, and I suspect she’s more of a dirt route type. Her early speed should play well in this limited field.

Fair Value:
#4 ICHIBAN, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2

Collaboration (#1) crossed the wire first at this level last time, but was controversially disqualified from victory for some bumping in mid-stretch. She still put in a strong performance to be first at the finish, as she survived a strong early pace and was still running on at the end. This filly really hasn’t run a bad race in any of her turf starts, and a repeat of that last effort will make her tough for this group to handle. She could face some early pressure from La Conquistadora this time, but it’s not as if she needs to the lead to be successful. Yet I prefer a different horse out of that May 29 affair. Sals Dream Girl (#2) wasn’t quite this class last year, but she really improved over the winter at Gulfstream, running well in a series of turf and synthetic starter allowance races. She came back off a brief freshening to return to NY-bred company last time, and put in a decent performance. After dropping pretty far back in the early stages, she still had plenty to do at the top of the stretch. Yet she really hit her best stride in the last furlong and was flying through the wire in a race that held together up front despite a fast pace. Now she draws well for this slight stretch-out, and may not have to come from as far back in this more compact field. The other horse that I considered is Snowy Evening (#3), who stretches out from 7 furlongs, having never routed on turf before. I like the way she’s been progressing through her maiden races, but she would probably have to improve going further to have a winning chance.

Fair Value:
#2 SALS DREAM GIRL, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4

There are obviously some runners with upward potential in this optional claimer, but I would be wary of a couple that seem like they could get overbet. Program Trading (#7) seems likely to go favored after an impressive debut victory at Monmouth last month. It took him a little while to find his best stride on the turn, but he really exploded away from that field once he straightened up and hit top gear. This son of Lope de Vega might have a future, but he feels like one that is going to get bet based on potential, even as he’s meeting a much tougher field. Among his main rivals are Scramble (#5) and Operation Torch (#2). I view Scramble as the more reliable option, since he just shows up with a competitive effort every time he’s led over. Operation Torch might garner support off his trip last time, where he got extremely rank in the early stages and made a premature move down the backstretch. However, that lack of professionalism could be even more of an issue here in what seems like a paceless affair. Lachaise (#4) is another to consider, but he could take money as he drops out of stakes events. I didn’t think he did that much running off the layoff last time, as he got a perfect trip in the Pennine Ridge but had little acceleration in the stretch. I want to go in a different direction with Baby Billy (#3). This gelding has only run on the turf twice. He broke his maiden against a decent field at Gulfstream in February, making a strong rally up the inside before holding off a late surge from the talented Mondego. He subsequently changed surfaces a few times, but his lone other turf effort is better than his result indicates. He was locked in behind rivals in a race dominated up front and was actually closing well through the lane despite having to search for running room. We have seen others who were pace compromised in that race come back to improve, and I think he can do the same as he gets back on turf.

Fair Value:
#3 BABY BILLY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5

I found this $32k claimer to be absolutely wide open, so my general feeling is that I want to keep an open mind with regard to multiple price options. I also want to avoid horses who seem liable to get overbet. Lastchanceatglory (#8) obviously make plenty of sense. He maintained solid form through a series of barn changes, but now he’s returning from a layoff after getting claimed by Linda Rice four months ago. I wanted to look elsewhere for some bigger prices. Two Thirty Five (#1) is trying to find the right class level. He easily won a weaker $25k off the turf race two back, but was then overmatched against tougher last time at the $50k level. This drop in class should suit him, and he didn’t even run that badly against some strong rivals off the claim for Oscar Barrera. Little Demon (#7) is trying to get back on track after going off form for David Jacobson, which is a bit of a concern, since the Jacobson barn has been on a strong run lately. However, he does have the quality to beat a field like this at his best, and now he’s first off the claim for Antonio Arriaga, who does good work with this move. My top pick is Rocco Strong (#9). This horse has run well enough to be competitive at this level in the past, and now he’s trying to get back on track after a rough year that saw him miss a lot of time. He actually ran better than it might look in that allowance race at Delaware last summer, and he subsequently caught a tougher field at this level in October. He was then off for more time, but he took a step forward in his return last time. That race featured a fast pace, and he was chasing the leader before staying on gamely in the lane. I think he’s a candidate to move forward second off the layoff, and I’m encouraged that Carlos Martin moves him up in class.

Fair Value:
#9 ROCCO STRONG, at 9-1 or greater
#7 LITTLE DEMON, at 8-1 or greater
#1 TWO THIRTY FIVE, at 11-1 or greater

RACE 7

I don’t have a major argument against Moonage Daydream (#8) being the horse to beat in this state-bred allowance. She showed talent as a two-year-old, winning the Steward Manor last fall. She hasn’t won again in three starts since returning from a layoff earlier this year, but she’s made some mild progress each time, gradually improving her TimeformUS Figures. She’s a threat here with a repeat of the 106 she earned for her runner-up finish at this level last time. I do have some mild concerns about the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she’s obviously a contender. One potential advantage that Moonage Daydream has over this field is her tactical speed in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. It’s one reason why I want to downgrade a confirmed deep closer like New Ginya (#3). I don’t love turf turnbacks like this in general, and she can be pretty pace dependent. Among the other late runners, the one I would be most willing to consider is Dream Central (#4), who did have to alter course when lacking a clear path in upper stretch last time. That was just her first start back off a layoff, and she did run well going this distance last year. However, she’s another who lacks any early speed. I’m more interested in a couple of bigger prices who can attain more forward position. I imagine that Kendrick Carmouche will try to use Road to Remember (#1) from the inside this time. It didn’t quite work out in her last start when she was shuffled back soon after the start, but she does possess the speed to get forward. The big question for her is the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she’s a daughter of stamina influence Bellamy Road, so it’s very possible she could handle it. My top pick is Silken Dollar (#7). This filly broke her maiden going this distance last spring at Belmont before trying both shorter and longer trips while switching surfaces during the remainder of the year. I think she’s confirmed at this point that she’s definitely a turf horse, but she appears to be one with some distance limitations. She was just barely able to get the mile when she hung on to win last November. She’s routed twice since returning from a layoff this season. She earned a competitive speed figure two back, and then didn’t get the chance to put forth a true effort last time. She got steadied and checked pretty badly in the early stages of that race, putting her out of position. She possesses better tactical speed than that, and I expect to see her get a more aggressive ride with Manny Franco hopping back aboard.

Fair Value:
#7 SILKEN DOLLAR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

There are some pretty talented New York-breds entered to contest this Dancin Renee. Rossa Veloce (#2) has been in great form since the claim by Rob Atras, and arguably does deserve to be favored here. Yet she’s best when she can control up front and Grannys Connection (#5) figures to challenge her in the early stages. The daughter of Connect is a new face on the scene, having registered four consecutive victories by large margins. She’s run competitive speed figures but has been facing much weaker company in those races, so she gets a serious class test here. She’s drawn well outside of her main pace rival and still has upside. Sterling Silver (#4) and Betsy Blue (#6) are a bit more appealing to me as late runners. The former showed quality last year when placing in a series of graded stakes events. She was overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup and probably needed a start off the layoff this year. Yet she’s recently come back into top form, and the cutback in distance shouldn’t bother her. Betsy Blue is the model of consistency, having finished in the exacta in 18 of her 22 lifetime starts. Yet she was tailing off a bit when last seen this winter, putting in a dull effort in the Broadway. She had registered two consecutive stakes victories prior to that, and has a right to get back on track here for Linda Rice off the layoff. My top pick at a bigger price is Kant Hurry Love (#7). She really blossomed over the winter, continuing to improve for trainer David Duggan after being transferred to his stable in January. She won a pair of NY-bred allowance races in impressive fashion before moving up to open company. She then lost a heartbreaking nose decision in February, overcoming a poor start to nearly get the win. She has to improve her speed figures a bit to beat the favorites here, but I thought she ran better than the result suggests last time. She didn’t seem to appreciate getting rated behind a slow pace, and then seemed discouraged when angled inside in the lane. She’s shown some hints of possessing this kind of talent, and now is drawn well on the outside.

Fair Value:
#7 KANT HURRY LOVE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

The horse to beat in here is probably Mauritius (#1), who has really taken a step forward with the switch to turf. He did well to close through traffic two back, even though that’s not his preferred style. He showed better early speed last time and just couldn’t quite hold on against a solid rival. I did think he ran better than today’s foe Legendary Lore (#9), who finished just a nose behind him that day. Legendary Lore got a perfect ground-saving trip and was just picking up pieces at the end. They both make sense, but I’m committed to going in a different direction. I’ve been waiting for Watasha (#6) to stretch back out in distance, and now he’s finally getting a chance as he makes his first start off the claim for a new barn. Mike Maker has a knack for identifying horses who can go longer, and Watasha has run better than it might appear in both of his turf races. He was competing in a deceptively strong maiden event on the turf when he tried it as a 3-year-old. He finally got back on the surface last time, but did so in a 6-furlong sprint, which is just too short for him. He was reserved far back in the early stages, but was flying through the lane in a race that was dominated by front-runners. I like the added ground for him, and he can be more forwardly placed at this distance.

Fair Value:
#6 WATASHA, at 4-1 or greater