by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 4:   3 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   9 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 9 - 2
Race 9:   15 - 10 - 4 - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

 
RACE 2: CHLOE ROSE (#2)

Stretching out to a mile proved to be the undoing of likely favorite #4 Bella Principessa last time, as she just wasn't able to see out the distance at today’s level. She’s been most effective as a sprinter on dirt, and now is turning back to a more appropriate trip. The speed figures that she’s recorded this winter are simply faster than most of the recent numbers earned by her competitors. The one concern is that she lacks early speed and there isn’t an overwhelming amount of pace in this race. That may not matter in her current form, but I’d be wary of taking too short a price on this favorite. Among the alternatives are a couple of fillies drawn down towards the rail. #1 To a T has held her form pretty well since the trainer switch to Orlando Noda this winter. However, her speed figures have hit a plateau in recent starts and she was no match for Bella Principessa when they met in February. She bobbled a couple of strides away from the gate last time, which put her towards the back of the pack early. She be more forwardly placed, and it doesn't hurt getting Jose Ortiz aboard. I prefer #2 Chloe Rose at what figures to be a better price. Her form has obviously fallen off since she won first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez last October. One could make the argument that she didn’t like wet tracks two and three starts back, but she failed to rebound on dry going last time. That said, she was meeting an unusually tough field for this level on Mar. 4, as Norman Queen and Tellaperfecttale are both in raging form right now. Chloe Rose has worked well since then and is returning to the site and distance of her last victory. I think she’s worth one more chance if the price is right.

WIN: #2 Chloe Rose, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 3: VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD (#4)

This race figures to set up pretty well for the favorite #6 No Salt, who is clearly the horse to beat. This gelding has been in great form since moving into the barn of Mike Miceli last fall. He did lose all three of his prior attempts at this N2X level, but he was beaten by some pretty good horses in those races, including subsequent stakes winner Water’s Edge. He rebounded with an easy victory against starter foes last time and shouldn’t mind the stretch-out in distance. Furthermore, there’s plenty of pace signed on with three speeds drawn down towards the inside. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast early tempo, and that could work against his main rival #2 Daddy Knows. This horse is the only runner in the field to have achieved the kind of speed figures that rival those of the favorite. However, his recent form has been tailing off, and he’s again been showing that alarming tendency to drift out in his races. Drawn between two pace rivals, he may struggle to work out the right trip. I think the biggest threat to the favorite may come from #4 Vintage Hollywood. This 7-year-old’s form clearly leaves something to be desired. He’s finished off the board in 8 of his last 9 starts, the only placing being a runner-up finish in a $25k claimer. That said, he does have back class, having won the off-the-turf Kingston last year and achieved some competitive speed figures as recently as one year ago. He’s also making his first start off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, who is 6 for 16 (38%, $4.36 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. He figures to get the right pace setup and should be a square price with No Salt certain to attract the bulk of support.

WIN: #4 Vintage Hollywood, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 4: MIDASWELLRUN (#3)

This conditioned $30k claimer is a real head scratcher of a turf race. I suppose #6 Kid Bourbon has to be considered the horse to beat despite having never won on this surface. His four prior turf appearances have all resulted in speed figures that should be good enough to win at this level. However, he’s done his best work over longer distances, and now is cutting back to 6 furlongs. He also didn’t run particularly well in his first start for the new barn at Parx last time, and is being ridden by a jockey who has had limited success on this circuit. I wanted to look elsewhere if he’s indeed going to be a short price. #2 Mach One seems like a win candidate in his return to turf, though he’s hardly trustworthy. This 4-year-old hasn’t been seen since breaking his maiden for a tag last October, out of which his claim was voided by the vet. The return to turf should work for him, since he ran well sprinting on turf early in his career and he’s a half-brother to turf sprinter No Bang No Boom. #9 Karnak is another looking to get back on track, though at least he has a prep run under his belt. This 4-year-old was facing significantly tougher competition in his return from the layoff last time at Gulfstream, and wasn’t ridden too aggressively. He has to improve on his maiden-breaking speed figure from a year ago, but he feels like a candidate to move forward second off the layoff. Furtermore, trainer Arnaud Delacour has been on a roll lately, winning with 6 of his last 7 starters across all circuits. I’m getting a little more creative with my top pick. #3 Midaswellrun makes his turf debut in his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. This horse has a pedigree that could go any way with regard to surface. His sire Mshawish is a decent turf influence, and the dam has produced two siblings to win on grass. Watching this horse run, he has a way of moving that should lend itself well to turf. He also has displayed improved tactical speed in his recent starts, which leads me to believe that he can attain a forward position even as he turns back in distance. Rudy Rodriguez is 5 for 30 (17%, $5.84 ROI) with first time turfers in sprints at Belmont over the past 5 years, and he’s done well with some big prices in that sample.

WIN: #3 Midaswellrun, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 2,9
 

RACE 5: BUCKORTWO (#9)

#2 Yarrow could go favored for the third consecutive time despite losing as the public choice in his final two appearances of 2021. That said, he’s run pretty well in all of his races to date. He responded well to the gradual reduction in distance last year, so 6 furlongs is the right starting point off the layoff. He had some minor trouble when trying to close two back, but then simply lacked a late punch when nosed out for second at Aqueduct last time. Christophe Clement is 16 for 78 (21%, $1.40 ROI) off 120-240 day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years. I’m not wildly against him, but I also wouldn’t want to take a short price on this runner. I slightly prefer main rival #3 Citizen K. This gelding got nosed out at the wire by Yarrow in each of his last two starts of 2021. His lack of early speed was a bit of a hindrance in those races, as he simply ran out of ground while finishing best of all each time. I think he’s more naturally suited to this distance than his main rival, but he needs more pace than he got in his most recent start on Nov. 27. It’s possible that he’ll get the right setup in here with such a large field signed on, but Jose Ortiz still must work out a trip. I want to go in a different direction with the 3-year-old #9 Buckortwo. This dark bay gelding is a little light on speed figures compared to the two main rivals drawn inside, but all of those numbers were achieved as a 2-year-old. He has a right to be capable of better returning as a more mature horse. Michelle Nevin is 3 for 16 (19%, $2.25 ROI) off 120-240 day layoffs in turf sprints over the past 5 years. She’s also 22 for 105 (21%, $4.66 ROI) in turf sprints at Belmont during that time. This runner adds Lasix for his return, and is getting a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche. I like that he showed improved tactical speed in his juvenile finale, and he has the pedigree to improve, as a full-sibling to turf allowance winner Dancing Buck.

WIN: #9 Buckortwo, at 4-1 or greater