by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 9 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 5: 7 - 11 - 5 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 1A - 6 - 5
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 1A - 8 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 2 - 10
Race 9: 8 - 3 - 7 - 2
RACE 3: STARLITE MISSION (#5)
This race is tricky because all of the horses who finished behind Take Charge Aubrey last time are going to take some money, and I’m just not convinced that any of them are very good. The Great Johanna seems like the most reliable option, but her best speed figure came over a sloppy track two back, and I wasn’t thrilled with her late response last time. I think this race is crying out for new faces, and there are a couple of options to consider. In Denile stretches out for her second career start as she gets Lasix for the first time. She’s certainly bred to handle added distance as a daughter of Pioneerof the Nile out of an A.P. Indy dam. While she’s a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Artemis Agrotera, there is plenty of stamina in the second generation of this female family. I’m using her, but she does need to improve significantly on her first outing. I’m picking Starlite Mission, who may fly under the radar given the multitude of chances she’s had. While her dirt speed figures don’t indicate that she’s any faster than her rivals, she did face some decent foes in those winter races. Her lone start going a route distance on dirt was arguably her best main-track effort, as she finished second to the talented Split Time. I don’t know what happened in her most recent turf start, but she has worked well since then. Furthermore, Gary Contessa – who has very few positive DRF Formulator angles – has fantastic numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 52 (25 percent, $3.20 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt routes.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
RACE 8: SILVER SHAKER (#3) / PURRAGEOUS DYNA (#9)
I’m not really trying to beat the likely favorite, Silver Shaker. This Chad Brown-trained filly was probably being given a prep last time when starting her 4-year-old campaign going 1 1/16 miles. Her best efforts last year had come going longer, and now she stretches out to a more appropriate distance. Furthermore, she actually ran quite well within the context of that June 14 race, as she made the first move from the back of the pack while going four wide around the far turn. She ended up hitting the front just outside the sixteenth pole but got run down by her stablemate Complicit, who had waited longer before coming off cover. Silver Shaker displayed a potent late kick in her 10-furlong races last year, and she figures to be difficult to hold off if she gets back to those efforts. At a much bigger price, I also want to use another horse coming out of that same race. One of the noteworthy aspects of this race is the glaring lack of pace, and that could make Purrageous Dyna particularly dangerous since her connections are not afraid to use their horses’ speed on turf. While Purrageous Dyna has yet to run well enough to win at this level, she has continued to progress and defy expectations with each successive turf start. Her good efforts at six furlongs may lead some to question this stretch-out in distance, but there is actually some stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree, and we’ve seen progeny of Courageous Cat handle extended routes. Purrageous Dyna finished only three-quarters of a length behind the favorite last time despite having to wait for room in upper stretch, and trainer Ned Allard has shipped in some live runners during this meet.
Win: 3
Win/Place: 9
Exacta: 3,9 with 1,2,3,9,10
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,8,10 with 9