PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1A
Race 3:   7 - 5 - 3 - 9
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 2 - 12
Race 8:   6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   7 - 11 - 9 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: HIGH JINGO (#3)
A few of her competitors bring solid recent form to the table, but I think High Jingo could offer value in her first start back from an extended layoff. I realize that her speed figures appear to be a bit slower than those of some of her rivals, but keep in mind that both of those numbers were earned during her 2-year-old season. She actually ran better than it appears on both occasions despite finishing just out of the money. She chased a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) in her debut while racing wide around the turn and held on gamely late in a race that totally fell apart at the end. Then, next time out, she again chased wide and even took the lead at the top of the stretch before fading late in a race that was again dominated by closers. Teresa Pompay gets an 86 Trainer Rating with runners returning from layoffs, and this filly appears to have been working strongly in recent weeks.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 3: ANY QUESTIONS (#7)
The runner they have to beat is Astounding, who moves back up in class after avoiding a potential claim in his most recent start. He was dominant that day, settling in midpack early before unleashing a powerful stretch kick that carried him to a clear victory. The only knock against him is that he doesn't figure to get as much pace to close into this time. The other logical horse whom many will turn to is Kantune, but I'm against this Mark Casse trainee. He was helped by a fast pace last time over a boggy course, and his prior turf efforts are not quite good enough. Instead, I'm trying to beat both of them with Any Questions. This horse faced some stiff competition in maiden special weight company in his initial turf starts. He was finally dropped in for a tag last time and responded with a win. While that came in a $40,000 claiming race, that field came up tougher than the tag would suggest. Third-place finisher Harlan's Hunch returned to nearly win a $75,000 maiden claimer in his next start. Furthermore, Bill Mott has excellent numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 23 for 87 (26 percent, $3.19 ROI) with horses coming off maiden wins in turf routes.

Win: 7
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with ALL
Trifecta: 5,7 with ALL with 5,7

RACE 5: CURSOR (#5)
Sky Gesture, True Charm, Set to Dance, and Knarsdale all prefer to be placed on or near the lead, so either a few of them will need to take back, or this race will fall apart in the late stages. The closer who I think has the best chance to run them down is Cursor. This filly has sprinted three times, and they've been her best efforts. She even did well to be second in her six-furlong return at Gulfstream this spring after having trouble at the start and getting carried wide into the stretch. If she gets an honest pace ahead of her, I think she'll get back to the winner's circle here.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 7: MAJESTIC TANGO (#7)
The obvious choice is Hollywood Cat, who is dropping in class after a steady diet of maiden special weight races. Not only is she facing the softest turf field of her career, but she is getting a positive rider switch to Manny Franco. She's a deserving favorite, but I want to use another runner who should offer better value. Majestic Tango has not done that much running in her turf starts, but she's been hampered by poor trips recently. She was inexplicably rated to the back of the pack in her only prior route start last fall at Aqueduct, where she was extremely rank while resenting her rider's tactics. Then, in her return at 3, she was again overly restrained early and ended up getting shuffled out of the race behind tiring runners on the far turn. I'm not sure she's quite good enough to win this race, but she does possess more ability than her published form suggests.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Box: 6,7

RACE 9: JERMYN STREET (#7)
Lady Devil has to be considered the horse to beat after running well against some decent fields down in Florida. In her lone prior effort sprinting (albeit while in Chad Brown's barn), she finished between subsequent stakes winners Ava's Kitten and On Leave in a race over this course and distance. I certainly respect her, but I do want to highlight another runner who is coming off a trip. Jermyn Street raced at this level last time and got a pretty weird ride and trip. After initially showing speed between horses through fast early fractions, she appeared to get shuffled back on the turn, eventually getting steadied to the back of the pack. It appeared that she had more run to give, but her race was over at that point. I expect a better effort here.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,9,11