by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 6 - 11 - 2 - 4
RACE 1: CALIDAD (#6)
It was a little odd to see morning-line favorite Sharp Starr’s connections turn her back to six furlongs off the layoff, as she seems like the kind of filly that wants to route. She was outrun from the rail that day, threw her head about while maneuvering out of kickback, and flattened out in the late stages. Prior to the layoff back on Feb. 15, she made a strong late run to be second going seven furlongs, finishing like a horse that should want every bit of this one-mile trip. She didn’t earn a particularly high speed figure for that effort, but she has a right to do better now with the added time to mature. All of her half-siblings have been routers, topped by the talented Papa Shot. Furthermore, her trainer Horacio DePaz is 4 for 8 (50%, $5.37 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes over the past five years. She’s the horse to beat, but I think she faces a serious rival in fellow stretch-out Calidad. This filly’s debut back in March was very encouraging, as she was off a bit slowly but launched a sustained rally around the turn, chasing home a runaway winner while drawing well clear of the rest. She just looked a little rusty in her return last time, as she again lagged behind early but couldn’t make up much ground once she was steered into the clear late. This daughter of Quality Road has some size to her, so the added ground shouldn’t be an issue. Plus, her dam won routing on turf and the dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner West Hills Giant, who won over a variety of distances. Trainer Bruce Levine doesn’t have great stats in this situation, but this filly appears to have some ability. She’s my top pick, but I don’t want to discount the third major player La Kara Mia. She’s the wild card in this field as she makes her dirt debut after a failed attempt to sprint on turf first time out. She’s definitely bred for this surface being out of the champion dirt sprinter La Verdad, and trainer Linda Rice has excellent statistics with this move. It just remains to be seen if this filly has any real talent, and it’s not like you’re going to get much of a price with Irad Ortiz Jr. climbing aboard.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 3: BLACKJACK DAVEY (#1)
Four horses in this field exit the same June 7 race at this level, and the two who put forth the best efforts that day were Jade’s Dream and Microsecond. The former was sent off at 64-1, whereas Microsecond was bet down to 8-5 favoritism. Yet the Pletcher trainee disappointed as Jade’s Dream won their early duel before both were reeled in by Dancers for Token. Based solely on those performances, it would be difficult not to favor Jade’s Dream this time, though there is the possibility that the strong tote support and solid debut effort from Microsecond might lead some to believe that he is capable of better this time. I personally think Jade’s Dream is the horse to beat, and it should come as no major surprise that he improved last time given his excellent dam-side pedigree. He’s a half-brother to the versatile dirt route specialist Go Get the Basil, who also won over jumps, as well as allowance types Hot Splash, Regal Prince, and Ode to the Hunt. I’m using him prominently, but there’s an intriguing new face in this lineup that deserves respect. Blackjack Davey makes his second career start for trainer Linda Rice, which is one of her specialties. Specifically, over the past five years, Rice is 12 for 31 (39%, $2.31 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt. This horse just looked like your typically debut runner for this barn, as he was off slowly and green in the early stages before launching a mild late run. He’s certainly bred to do better than that as a full brother to stakes winner Blindwillie McTell and allowance type Duquesne Whistle. His pedigree is geared more toward sprinting, but both of those aforementioned siblings handled route distances and Rice usually places these horses where they truly belong second time out.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with ALL
RACE 5: MALARKEY (#8)
Stay Fond is the horse to beat as she makes her first start off the claim for Michael Miceli following a layoff. Based on her overall body of work, she’s just in a class above her rivals here, especially from a speed figure standpoint. However, she’s done her best work over route distances and now she’s being asked to go 7 furlongs off the layoff. She found 6 furlongs to be much too short for her last time, so it remains to be seen if she can handle this distance. Furthermore, as well as the Miceli barn has done over the past couple of seasons, he is just 3 for 28 (11%, $1.08 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years, and hasn’t won with any runner first off the claim during the past two years. I’m using her defensively, but I want to look elsewhere for my top selection. I prefer Malarkey. Linda Rice is often regarded as a trainer who doesn’t do well off layoffs, but the statistics tell a slightly different story. Malarkey has been off for just over 5 months, and Linda Rice is a solid 13 for 51 (25%, $2.56 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 180 days in dirt sprints during the past 5 years. I realize that Malarkey has made limited appearances recently, but her overall form isn’t as bad as it seems. She was ridden down to the worst dead rail we saw on the NYRA circuit in all of 2019 when she finished last on July 26 at Saratoga. Then when she returned in January, she found herself chasing the very fast Malibu Mischief in a race that fell apart in the late stages. She’s better than that, and I think she might find herself setting a fairly moderate early pace here given the general lack of speed in this field. She’s my top pick, and I would use her with the favorite, along with the improved Cotton Candy Cutie and the class-dropping My Last Million.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,6,7
RACE 6: LIFE CHANGER (#2)
Creed figures to be a heavy favorite as he attempts to follow up his impressive maiden triumph with another victory against winners. Unlike the other contenders coming off maiden wins, he’s already proven that he handles this distance, having drawn off impressively going this trip back on June 11, earning a formidable 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That type of speed figure is good enough to win most N1X allowance events, and none of his rivals have come close to achieving that kind of figure in their prior starts. The one caveat is that he achieved that victory over a sloppy track with a great trip, sitting off a quartet of embattled leaders before striking on the far turn. He may not get as much pace to close into this time, but there’s no denying that this promising son of Honor Code may possess real talent and have stakes in his future. I’m not against him, but I do think there’s a possibility that he could get overbet in this spot, and I’m somewhat intrigued by one of his rivals. Life Changer was a surprise winner of his debut at 12-1 odds back on June 6, showing early speed from his inside post position before gamely fending off the heavy favorite Dreams of Tomorrow in the last quarter-mile. He will have to improve on his 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure to upset Creed, but I liked what I saw from this runner in that appearance. He showed plenty of professionalism and determination as he dug in to turn away that late challenge, never letting Dreams of Tomorrow past him even on the gallop-out. He shouldn’t have any major issues with the added distance, given that he’s a son of Preakness winner Oxbow. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he should be all alone on the front end this time, as his Early Pace Rating is some 21 points higher than the next-best rating in the field. If jockey Joel Rosario can nurse him along up front and get him to show that same grit in the stretch, I think he could prove to be a worthy rival for Creed.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 1,3,4,8
RACE 8: WAR CANOE (#3)
If Fifty Five shows up with her top effort, she’s likely to win this Mount Vernon. However, her margin for error in these races has grown slimmer as she’s gotten older. She won all three of her starts against New York-bred stakes company last year, but she never did so by large margins and she may no longer be capable of earning the types of graded stakes-level speed figures that she had been achieving as a 4-year-old. Further complicating matters is the lack of pace in this year’s Mount Vernon. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a ‘No Speed’ scenario, which essentially means that none of the entrants in this race possess running styles that typically have them near the front of the pack. Therefore, every horse in this field may be somewhat out of its element from a trip standpoint. Fifty Five at least possesses some tactical speed, along with a turn of foot that could get her out of trouble. Yet she’s going to be a very heavy favorite – almost definitely odds-on – and I think this is a slightly more competitive race than it seems. I want to take a shot against her with her uncoupled Chad Brown-trained stablemate War Canoe. This 7-year-old mare would have to produce the best effort of her career to take down the favorite, but I think such a performance may be forthcoming. War Canoe was in career form when last seen at the end of 2019, losing a couple of decisions to Fifty Five before beating a solid open allowance field at Aqueduct. Yet what I find most attractive about her form from the end of last year is that she started showing vastly improved early speed in her races for Linda Rice. It was as if she her competitive spirit had been reignited as she was putting herself into races much earlier than in the past. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Pace Projector shows her on the lead here, and I think she could work out such a trip if Irad Ortiz lets her roll away from the gate. She appears to be training well into this race and I think the gap between these two Brown fillies may have narrowed just enough for War Canoe to cause the minor upset.
Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 1 with 4,5,6