by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 6: 10 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 10
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 1 - 4
RACE 2: OWNITIFYOUWANTIT (#3)
Exult may go off as the favorite, but I’ve seen enough of this Chad Brown trainee. He was supposed to win two back at Keeneland and just couldn’t sustain his bid as the even-money favorite. Then last time, he didn’t lose by that much, but he also never threatened with a serious bid. I prefer Power Player, who returns from a layoff and makes his first start for Jason Servis. This colt ran into a good field in his debut at Santa Anita last September, finishing behind subsequent stakes winners Flying Scotsman and Omaha Beach. He was also very wide around both turns and did well to get up for third after such a trip. Servis doesn’t have the greatest statistics off layoffs in turf routes, but this one may have some ability. I’m using him prominently, but I settled on a different new face. Ownitifyouwantit makes his turf debut after some decent results on dirt. He notably lost to Kentucky Derby winner Country House in that Jan. 17 maiden race, and the winner of his last start returned to run well against winners in his next two starts. This expensive 2-year-old purchase is bred to relish the surface switch. Midshipman wins with 14 percent of his first-time turfers, and his unraced dam has produced four turf winners from four foals to try it, most of whom improved on grass, including turf stakes winner Small Bear. The dam herself is a half-sister to Grade 1 turfer Citronnade ($864,000), so the grass influences in this pedigree run deep. He has to step forward to overtake the favorites, but improvement seems likely.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 4,5,7
RACE 4: LEITONE (#6)
Untamed Domain is clearly the horse to beat in this race, and he will win if he has stepped forward at all ahead of his 4-year-old season. The problem with him is that I’m not sure he actually too a big step forward last year. He was a very good 2-year-old, and many of his peers had caught up to him in their development by the time he turned three. He closed well to be second in the American Turf last year, but he also appreciated the “yielding” going that day. His subsequent efforts have all been fairly disappointing and I’m just not sure that he’s taken the necessary steps forward to compete against older horses in a high-level optional claiming event like this. I’ll use him defensively, but I prefer others. Bird’s Eye View seems like a logical alternative. This Mike Dini trainee rarely wins, but he often shows up with a solid effort. He may have moved to the lead too soon over yielding ground two back and then last time he was just a little too far back after breaking from an outside post in a race that was dominated up front. He may be better going slightly farther than this, but he still figures to give a solid account of himself. I’m using both of these horses, but my top pick is Leitone. Jason Servis better off the claim with turf sprinters than he is with turf routers, but I still think this runner is very intriguing. He obviously appreciated the drop in class last time, but he also ran a huge race that day. The final margin of victory was nearly 14 lengths, but this horse could have won by 25 lengths or more had he been ridden out to the wire, having achieved a much higher speed figure. That was on dirt, and now he is switching to turf. He has yet to find any success on the grass in this country, but he may not have been positioned to do so. One of those starts came for Kathy Ritvo, for whom he didn’t run very well, and his other turf start came over a yielding course at Keeneland. Earlier in 2018 in Chile he won the Group 1 El Derby on turf and seemed to take to it without issue. This horse has the speed to be on the lead, or potentially stalking Greek Alphabet, and I think he’s going to run well if Jason Servis can merely maintain his form.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7
RACE 7: MARKET BUBBLE (#5)
National Honor comes in with some of the best speed figures but is making his first start against New York-breds since his 2-year-old season. He had been competing for cheaper claiming tags without much success in 2018, but he appears to have returned as a new horse this year. He probably isn’t meeting any horses of the caliber of last-out runner-up Hard Fought in this spot, so he fits from a class perspective. I believe he’s the horse to beat, but I still don’t trust him to bring his form to NYRA. Many of the others are exiting a June 9 race at this level that was dominated on the front end by Everyonelovesjames. Mr. Massena ran fine to be second that day, as did the late-running Riendo. However, I’m not thrilled with either of them and believe this is a good spot to search for a new face. I have to bet Market Bubble, who is getting back on turf. This horse appeared to have a nice future when he debuted as a 2-year-old, closing into a slow pace to get up for the victory over a more experienced rival. Unfortunately, nothing has gone right for him since then. He didn’t handle a boggy course at Laurel in his second start, and he’s only had the chance to race on dirt since then, with two of those races getting rained off the grass. He showed absolutely nothing in his return in late May, but he figures to do much better while switching back to his preferred surface. The stretch-out on turf is a new obstacle, but he’s bred to handle the distance. His dam was a route winner on both dirt and turf and is a half-sister to Straight Story, who won the Grade 1 Jamaica over nine furlongs on turf. The other horse to consider at what should be a square price is El Hermano. I thought he got a great trip to break his maiden last time, but that has proven to be a fairly live race in retrospect. This horse has proven that he handles the 1 1/8 miles distance, and he's drawn a perfect post position for this configuration on the inner.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,10
RACE 8: POLE SETTER (#4)
If Clint Maroon starts, he is likely to be the favorite. Todd Pletcher has mentioned a desire to run him in the Belmont Derby on Saturday instead, but this seems like a more logical spot. Clint Maroon ran fairly well in the Pennine Ridge last time, but he just couldn’t quite handle the nine-furlong distance. Stamina was always going to be the chief concern for this son of Oasis Dream, so the cutback to one mile in this race suits him perfectly. The one caveat is that he got an absolutely perfect trip, setting a slow pace, when he achieved that career-best speed figure in the Woodhaven two back, and he may find himself in a stalking position this time. I believe he’s the most likely winner, but I am not thrilled with accepting a short price on anyone in this competitive race. Win Win Win also figures to attract some support as he makes his turf debut. He’s clearly good enough to beat this field, and his pedigree says that turf is not supposed to pose a problem. However, it’s always dangerous betting horses trying something for the first time at short prices. I’ll use both, but my top pick is Pole Setter. This horse won the Paradise Creek going seven furlongs last time, benefitting from a perfect front-running trip. His TimeformUS Speed Figure did not come back very high, but that had a lot to do with the slow pace. He proved in his prior start on dirt that he’s capable of running much faster, and I believe he can transfer that form to turf. He is going to be the controlling speed once again, and he figures to appreciate the very firm turf course at Belmont. I just think he’s going to get the right trip again, and he still figures to be a square price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7,8
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5,8 with 1,5,6,7,8