by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 10 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   7 - 2 - 1 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 4: ARGONNE (#4)
The top contenders are exiting the 11th race on June 8, in which Prompt just edged ahead of Mathematician at the wire, but could not quite catch the winner. Prompt clearly ran the best race that day as he was carried out heading into the clubhouse turn when the lead horse unexpectedly dropped his rider. Prompt appeared to be spinning his wheels approaching the quarter pole, but he seemed to regain focus when the eventual winner rallied up alongside him, and he battled that one all the way to the wire. Prompt was making his first start off a layoff that day and should benefit from that experience. Don’t be deterred by the trainer switch, as Bill Mott’s assistant is deputizing while he serves a brief suspension. I believe Prompt is the horse to beat, but I’m taking a shot against him with Argonne, who figures to be a better price. This horse was also making his first start off a layoff last time out in a very salty maiden race that earned a fast speed figure. Argonne finished a close fifth, but he seemingly could have attained a higher position with a clear run. He looked loaded under Joe Bravo coming the far turn, but was unfortunately stymied in traffic for much of the stretch. While Bravo was able to avoid abruptly steadying his mount, he was also never able to fully get after him. Argonne has logged a series of solid morning drills since that latest outing. He strikes me as the type of horse that should have no problem stretching out in distance, as his lone half-sibling is Irish Freedom, a Grade 3 stakes-placed runner at 9 furlongs on the dirt. New pilot Dylan Davis has had plenty of success for this barn.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7,8
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 6,7,8

 

RACE 6: THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN (#7)
Admission Office is an obvious favorite after overtaking a solid field of maidens to win his debut in stylish fashion. While he was aided by an honest pace that day, it’s still quite a feat for a first-time starter to pass 11 rivals while rallying from last. Furthermore, Admission Office was still green as he was trying to lug in throughout the stretch run, making it difficult for Jose Ortiz to properly ride him out to the finish. The sky is the limit for this half-brother to Grade 1 winner Coffee Clique. However, it won’t be easy for him to rack up another victory here. His debut came over the Widener course, which can be more conducive to his running style, whereas this race is contested going 9 furlongs on the inner – a configuration that often favors speed. Admission Office may have the brightest future among this bunch, but I think this is the time to take a shot against him. His main rival is Morrison, who is one of a couple entrants with early speed. However, the outside post position is not ideal for a horse that needs to get clear early in order to have his best chance. I actually prefer a different horse out of the June 8 optional-claiming race that Morrison exits. Themanbehindtheman finished 2 lengths behind Morrison that day, but he obviously had a tougher trip. Whereas Morrison was able to coast along on the front end though moderate fractions, Themanbehindtheman was forced to rate for the first time in his life. Jose Ortiz attempted to angle him out into the clear at the top of the stretch, but had to briefly steady and then alter course as runners drifted about on each side of him. That confluence of events prevented Themanbehindtheman from accelerating at a key juncture of the race, yet he still finished gamely to just miss third. Since he’s drawn inside of Morrison, he may be able to wrest the early lead away from that rival and slow down the pace.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,6,10
Trifecta: 7 with 6,10 with 1,5,6,10

 

RACE 7: O SHEA CAN U SEE (#1)
The horse likely to attract the most attention is debut winner Elios Milos, who made an eye-catching run from the back of the pack to pass them all in his debut. He was visually impressive that day and earned a respectable speed figure. However, he also had some things in his favor. The early pace of that race was very fast, which enabled him to make that late rush. Furthermore, the main track was favoring outside paths on May 28, and that may have exaggerated his performance. He’s dangerous, but I don’t want to bet him as the favorite this time. New York Hero seems like the most obvious alternative, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him as he returns from the layoff. He was a bit of a disappointment over the winter after breaking his maiden in such impressive fashion, and Linda Rice’s number off layoffs of this type are merely mediocre. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with O Shea Can U See on the rise in class. This is not the kind of horse that I’d typically go for, but Jason Servis’s horses have continued to run well in recent weeks. While he was beating much weaker foes last time, he earned the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field, and that number has held up well as multiple runners have come back out of that race to run fast figures in their subsequent starts. Furthermore, O Shea Can U See showed newfound speed last time and he figures to get sent to the front once again from this rail post position. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4

 

RACE 8: ABIDING STAR (#4)
The enigma in this race is Get Jets. What do you do with a horse who was retired from racing less than 2 months ago, yet is now restarting his racing career merely because he hasn’t accomplished enough to secure a stud deal? If he returns in top form, he’s obviously the horse to beat, but I’m dubious. In some ways, the most reliable runner in this field is Blacktype. I know that he’s finished off the board in two starts so far this year, but those were tough spots and I think he’s now getting back into the right kind of spot. I also appreciate that he’s getting reunited with Joel Rosario, who seems to have the key to this notoriously difficult horse. I’m using him prominently, but there are definitely others to consider at better prices. One of those is Kharafa, who got back on track last time after a disappointing start to his 9-year-old campaign. He actually ran better than it appears in that third place effort in the Kingston, as he had to wait in traffic at the top of the stretch and alter course in a race dominated by outside closers. He definitely would have been second to Offering Plan without that trouble, and a repeat of that effort makes him dangerous. I’m using him, but the horse that intrigues me most is Abiding Star. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve never been a fan of this runner, as he’s primarily raced in cheaper spots. However, based on his 2018 debut, he may just be a new horse as a 5-year-old. I cannot overstate how much better his last effort was than anything he had ever accomplished prior to that. That 6-furlong optional claimer was dominated on the front end by Sandy’z Slew, who ran fast every step of the way. Abiding Star had previously been reluctant to pass horses in his races, so he seemingly lost all chance when he got away awkwardly and was left behind the field in the early going. However, once Joe Bravo asked him to catch up on the far turn, he absolutely took off, rocketing past his rivals with a wide move that carried him all the way up into second position at the top of the stretch. Looking at Trakus splits, he ran his second quarter mile in a wild 21.38 seconds. Interior fractions of that sort – accomplished while rounding a turn, no less – are practically unheard of, even in sprints. I know that it’s somewhat risky to revise your opinion about a horse based solely on one effort, but I think this is an appropriate time to do so. Furthermore, he’s going to be on the lead this time, as long as he breaks cleanly. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners or near the lead, and he clearly possesses the most early speed. This one-turn mile distance has been a favorite of his in the past, and I’m optimistic that the stars are now aligned for him to conquer this rise in class.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,8