by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 9 - 8 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 1A - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 8 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 9 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 4 - 7 - 5 - 10
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 9 - 6
Race 10: 10 - 3 - 2 - 9
RACE 2: STAGE LEFT (#6)
Who’s in Charge figures to go favored here as he seeks his third victory in four career starts. His last victory was a fairly easy one in solid time, so it makes sense that he’d garner support once again even as he moves up the class ladder. On the other hand, there are some questions hanging around this colt. He’s not one that has ever been able to put starts back-to-back, requiring significant layoffs between each start. Furthermore, it appears likely that he’s going to be an underlay in this spot. In addition to his attractive and compact career tally, he goes out for the dangerous Danny Gargan barn with leading rider Irad Ortiz in the irons. Ortiz was incredibly hot over the first week at Belmont so he’s going to bring more support in this runner’s direction than is really warranted. There are some worthy rivals in this race who figure to offer better value. One of those is Blacktop Legend. At first glance, he looks like a perfect fit for this race, having found N1X company a bit too tough last time. However, he’s built his reputation on a fast starter allowance score two back which looks a little suspect in retrospect. Both horses who finished directly behind him that day returned to regress in their subsequent starts, and Blacktop Legend himself reverted to his prior form when he returned in February. I prefer another runner coming off an Aqueduct layoff. Stage Left made one start in New York over the winter, just missing in a starter allowance in January. He probably should have won that day, as he got sandwiched between horses in midstretch and lost momentum before rallying again to lose by a nose. This horse has never done anything particularly flashy, but he almost always shows up with a good effort. Even his off-the-board finish at Churchill Downs two back is a lot better than it looks given his poor start and the demanding distance of that race. He has the tactical speed to work out a good trip here and he’s realistically spotted off the layoff.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8
RACE 5: TONAL VISION (#7)
This is a completely different race with heavy favorite Spice Is Nice coming out, so let’s reassess. Alandra will probably inherit the favorite’s role now. She showed so much promise first out at Saratoga, to the point that she was actually sent off as the favorite over British Idiom in the Alcibiades. Yet disappointments at the end of last year prompted Shug to turn her back in distance this year, and the results have been mixed. She was hindered by a slow start last time, but just couldn’t keep up at any point. Stretching back out here makes sense, but it’s not as if she’s ever run a particularly fast speed figure. Kansas Kis was pretty unlucky to lose the Busher two back when she clearly ran the best race, making a premature move into a fast pace before just getting nailed on the wire. She was unsurprisingly overmatched against some of the best fillies in the nation in the Fantasy last time, and this subsequent drop in class makes sense. Yet it’s curious that they’re keeping her at this 1 1/16 miles distance, as it seems pretty obvious that she wants to go shorter than this. She has the ability to be a factor, but I’m just concerned that stamina deficiencies could come into play late. Many of the others are coming off maiden victories. I can understand making a case for a horse like Master of Hope, who ran fairly well in her debut and has a right to improve stretching out. Yet I’m most interested in a different horse out of that race. Tonal Vision looks a bit slower than these at first glance, but I believe we haven’t yet seen the best she has to offer. She did not get the most comfortable trip in that aforementioned Feb. 8 affair as she was reluctant to rally through a tight spot along the inside in the lane. She had no trouble handling the stretch-out last time, but that was a very slow maiden event out of which few rivals have run back. Given that it was the first race of the day and track seemed to speed up thereafter, I’m a bit skeptical of that speed figure. I have a feeling she’s better than she looks, and the added ground figures to help her as a daughter of Tonalist.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4
RACE 7: OUR LAST BUCK (#5)
Chestertown figures to be a prohibitive favorite as he drops out of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and returns to New York-bred company for the first time since his maiden victory last year. His performance in that Derby prep was a little disappointing, as he had good position early and just came up empty when asked in the lane. That said, he did perform fairly well in his two prior starts against open company at Fair Grounds. He was compromised by a slow pace on Jan. 18 and then was unlucky to lose after a rough trip on Feb. 15. He’s the horse to beat in this spot and he still has plenty of upside. Yet he’s going to attract more money than his form really merits due to that perception, as well as the presence of Irad Ortiz climbing aboard. He’s the most likely winner, but others have run just as fast and will be more enticing prices. I think Our Last Buck could be a worthy rival Chestertown in this spot. He earned a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last victory, higher than any number Chestertown has ever run. And notably, that was his first start in a dirt route. While it’s rare to find a situation in which connections don’t discover which distance is best for their horse until the age of six, this might be such an instance. Our Last Buck’s career debut going a mile on turf back in 2018 probably fooled his handlers, since he faded that day – but only after getting involved in a very fast pace. From there he was a pegged as a sprinter, and perhaps wrongly so. It’s also important to note that he has significantly improved for trainer Michelle Nevin, as he ran far better than the results would indicate in both starts prior to that last victory. I know he was only winning a $30,000 claimer last time, but he finished off that race like he had wanted to do this all along. His worktab for this return suggests that he’s maintained solid form, and I think he’s going to give a solid account of himself even if Chestertown shows up.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,8
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 3,6,7,8
RACE 8: VALUE ENGINEERING (#4)
Both of the main players in this race lost close decisions at this level when last seen in 2019 and are now coming off layoffs. Of that pair, I prefer Value Engineering. This son of Lemon Drop Kid has always been cut out to go these longer distances on the turf, and his last race at 1 1/4 miles was arguably his best effort yet despite the fact that he lost as the 6-5 favorite. Some will assert that Value Engineering hung that day, but to my eye Hoboe just dug in and held him off. And losing to the late 2019 version of Hoboe was no disgrace as that rival wheeled right back to finish a close third in the Mohawk Stakes, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 9 points. Value Engineering had plenty of stops and starts in his campaign last year, but he showed talent at different points and seems like one that could have a big year in 2020 as long as Chad Brown can keep him going. I think he’s the horse to beat and he’s my top pick. Mr. Alec has a similar look to him, but I did feel like he showed some hang in his final two starts of 2019. He had dead aim at victory in both of those losses and just couldn’t muster the will to win. It was especially disappointing when he lost at Aqueduct since he was allowed to set a pretty moderate pace while riding the rail the entire way. He’s the main rival to the favorite, but I prefer Value Engineering if they’re similar prices. There are some others to consider, but most come in with question marks. Of the bigger prices, the one who intrigues me the most is the 3-year-old Life On Top. He finished well behind today’s rival No Word at Gulfstream last time, but this Jimmy Jerkens trainee had the tougher trip that day, bottled up on the rail when attempting to move on the turn before having to alter course dramatically in upper stretch. He’s been improving steadily and may appreciate this stretch-out in distance. Throw him into your exotics.
Win: 4
Win/Place: 5
Trifecta: 4 with 5,7 with 1,2,5,7,10,11
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2,10,11 with 5,7
RACE 9: SIR WINSTON (#4)
I’m not pointing out anything too clever in this feature. This just seems like a perfect spot for Sir Winston to get his 2020 campaign back on track. I became a big fan of this horse over the course of his 3-year-old campaign, especially after his breakout performance when second in the G2 Peter Pan last year. He followed that up with a victory in the Belmont Stakes, propelled by a fantastic ground-saving ride from Joel Rosario over a rail-biased surface. Yet I think we have to get past the idea that he’s built his entire reputation on one fluky performance, since his Peter Pan effort was arguably better than his Belmont. Furthermore, he further confirmed his quality when he returned to dirt this past winter at Aqueduct, impressively winning a one-mile optional claiming event. While that wasn’t as strong a field as this one, he overcome a moderate pace to win going a distance that is probably a bit short for him. Stretching out to 1 3/8 miles should be ideal and we already know he likes Belmont Park. There isn’t much pace in this race, but he’s developed a potent turn of foot that should be able to overcome that situation. He’s simply the horse to beat and I’m keying on him. I find the other contenders far more difficult to trust. Rocketry just appears to have gone off form after a stellar 2018 season. He’s a plodder who doesn’t have the finishing speed of Sir Winston, so he could be more severely compromised if they walk up front. Adventist seems like a bigger threat to me, since he’s gotten fairly consistent lately and handles this distance. He’s another deep closer, but he figures to be right there in his current form. I would also use Expert in some capacity. This son of Point Given performed very well in some tough spots last year while earning a series of formidable speed figures. He was thrown into a very tough spot off the layoff at Gulfstream last time and didn’t run as badly as it seems. The distance is a question mark, but he has the pedigree to handle it. I’ll use him if he’s a square price. I also wouldn’t discount Blugrascat’s Smile, who could be the biggest price in this field. He really seemed to take to the longer distance of the Bernardini last time, and he has the tactical speed to work out a great trip this time. It’s possible that he’s just finally discovered that dirt routes are his specialty.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 6,7,9
Trifecta: 4 with 2,6,7,9 with 2,6,7,9