by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1/1A - 5 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 12 - 8 - 11
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 15 - 7
RACE 3: TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK (#4)
The two runners likely to attract the most support both possess speed. The Pace Projector is predicting that Professor Snape is slightly quicker in the early going, but Mo Soul appears to be more of a need-the-lead type, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out on the front end. Professor Snape has maintained solid form despite racing at a relatively cheap level for the past few months. He originally improved for Gary Gullo, and Rudy Rodriguez merely maintained his form in recent starts. Now he’s going out first off the claim for Mike Miceli, who has been enjoying an excellent season. I’d certainly use this horse, but he’s going to face a serious early challenge from Mo Soul, who is meeting a tougher field here despite dropping in claiming price. He was bet down to 4-5 odds last time but had to work harder than one might have expected to win in the slop. He’s likely to take plenty of action again as bettors may be impressed by his 5-for-7 record. I want to go in a slightly different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Toohottoevenspeak. This horse is more inconsistent than the two aforementioned rivals, but he’s capable of running competitive speed figures on occasion. He did so three back when he was turned back to seven furlongs in the slop. I’ve always thought distances as far as 1 1/16 miles were too far for him, so I’m not totally surprised that he regressed in his last two starts. Now he’s dropping in price and turning back to six furlongs. I actually like this distance for him, and he’s picking up the meet’s leading rider, Jose Lezcano.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with 1,2,5
RACE 6: QUALITY CHOICE (#1)
With this race getting transferred to the main track, MTO entrant Ari’s Naughty Luca becomes a heavy favorite. He earned a fast speed figure last time and that effort was flattered yesterday by Walkoff, who returned to win his second start in a row. This horse did not strike me as one that would relish added ground last time, but Linda Rice has exceptional statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 8 for 11 (73 percent, $4.43 ROI) first off the claim with maidens stretching out from sprints to routes on the dirt. I’m using this horse prominently, but I could envision him getting pretty leg-weary in the final furlong. All of the other runners were entered for turf, yet I think there are some viable options among them. Exchequer merits consideration after running a series of respectable dirt races. We have seen a number of horses transferred from Steve Asmussen to Danny Gargarn improve significantly, so it would be no surprise if this horse puts forth a career-best effort here. I’m using him, but my top pick is Quality Choice. I know this horse has improved on turf recently, but I think it’s possible that he’s just improved from an overall sense. He had no idea what was going on in his dirt debut back in early 2018, as he dropped out of contention mid-race and was running on best of all in the stretch. He was badly overmatched in his only other dirt start in April of that year, finishing far behind the well-regarded Legit. He broke very slowly in both of those races, but Michelle Nevin has since corrected that problem. While he showed some improvement on turf, he actually has more of a dirt pedigree. His second dam is Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Status, and he is a full-brother to 8-time dirt route winner Arbitrator. If he can transfer his improved form to the dirt, he’s a serious rival for Ari’s Naughty Luca, and he may get somewhat ignored in the wagering.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
RACE 7: PURRAGEOUS DYNA (#4)
This is arguably the most confusing race on the card, as you make a valid case for almost all of the eight runners. I suppose Dream Passage will go off as the favorite off her visually impressive score going this distance in late April. She was only beating New York-breds that day, but she took down a heavily bet Chad Brown favorite and earned an impressive 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She had previously been a closing sprinter, so the sudden improvement going a mile was fairly surprising, but she must be respected off that effort. I prefer her to Go Rose, who earned a respectable speed figure in her U.S. debut last time but did so with the benefit of a perfect trip. I’m more interested in a couple of horses looking to get back into top form. Goodbye Brockley ran a number of races in 2018 that would make her a player in this spot. She was never in serious contention in her return last time, but she may not have appreciated the 1 1/8-mile distance of that race. This turnback should be to her liking. I’m using her, but my top pick is Purrageous Dyna. This mare might look inferior at first glance, but her turf form actually stacks up well against this field. She put in an encouraging effort at this level last June, finishing just behind a pair of superior Brown fillies, Complicit and Silver Shaker. She didn’t handle 1 1/4 miles in her next start, and she was placed over head in the Yaddo. Yet she put in a good effort when she was back in a realistic spot in September, finishing second behind Golden Attitude, who returned to place in a stakes. Her most recent dirt start was a prep, and she should be set to move forward.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,7
RACE 9: FINLEE (#4)
This race is almost totally devoid of dirt form now that it’s been switched to the main track. MTO entrant Bourbon High ran some competitive speed figures over the winter, but her form has declined severely since then. The fact that she’s still a contender in this field speaks to the overall quality of the race. Horses like It’s a Lovely Day, Traci’s Girl, and Taniell’s Candy are likely to attract support for the wrong reasons. All are better turf horses and they’re going to take money for the wrong reasons. I suppose It’s a Lovely Day is the most dangerous of that trio since she ran some competitive dirt races for Chad Brown early in her career, but she’s not the kind of runner I want to bet at a short price. Having reevaluated this race as a dirt event, I think there’s a very logical alternative to these runners that is going to get somewhat lost in the shuffle. Finlee makes a ton of sense in this spot. I know she’s going out for low-profile connections and she’s had a bunch of chances on dirt already. However, her speed figures make her fast enough to compete against this field. Actually, they arguably make her the fastest horse in the race. Furthermore, she’s in better form than it appears. She’s been overmatched against maiden special weight rivals in her recent starts and last time she was forced to race 3-wide against a strong rail bias. It’s conceivable that she could have run much faster than that day with an inside trip. She’s been working well at Saratoga between that start and this one and I think she merely needs to maintain her current form to come away with the maiden score.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7,9,15