by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 1A - 9 - 3
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 9 - 8
Race 8: 8 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 6 - 4
RACE 2: CODY’S NOTES (#4)
This is a very tricky race, because I don’t trust either of the runners that are going to attract the bulk of the play here. Hidden Vow ran races that would beat this bunch last year, but he hasn’t competed since August and he’s getting up there in age. I have the utmost respect for Jason Servis, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed that this one can come back in top form. I’m even more dubious of Mobridge, who is relatively lightly raced for an 8-year-old due to the many layoffs throughout his career. He’s needed a start off longer breaks in the past. I just can’t take either one at short prices, so I wanted someone else. I landed on Cody’s Notes, who I admit is a bit of a stretch. While he’s raced primarily on dirt over the past couple of seasons, he does have turf races from earlier in his career that give him a shot if the favorites don’t show up. I know that his last race was poor, but that came against a deceptively tough group of open claimers, and his connections may have been using that as a tightener. Over the past five years, Greg DiPrima is 8 for 39 (21 percent, $4.66 ROI) second off the claim, so there’s reason to believe that Cody’s Notes can step forward this time.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,9
RACE 3: LA CONTESSA (#7)
The logical filly is La Piu Bella, who makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. She was a little unlucky last time after breaking slowly. La Piu Bella figured to be the speed in that race, but Kendrick Carmouche had to change the game plan and stalk in behind horses. She had to briefly wait for room at the top of the stretch, and just didn’t have enough to run down the top two finishers. The good news out of that race is that she was able to pair up competitive speed figures, establishing herself as the most trustworthy option here. However, I’m somewhat interested in Rice’s other horse in the race, La Contessa. She finished off the board in both her turf starts last year, but I think there’s reason to believe she deserves another shot on this surface. Her debut came against much tougher company going a distance that may be too short for her. Then, in her only other turf start, she was hampered by a bumping incident on the far turn that pushed her out into the 6 or 7 path, and cost her momentum at a critical juncture. La Contessa proved that she can handle a route distance when winning on dirt last time. It appears that Rice has waited for turf season to return, and she’s placing her at an appropriate class level.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 5: SLICK SILVER (#1) / CAROM (#4)
This is arguably the toughest race on the card, since you can make valid cases for all of the 10 runners. I don’t want Hangman or Overnight Success, who both figure to take money after running well against a weaker group last time. The horse with the best recent turf effort may be Union Ranks, who set a legitimate pace last time while facing a strong field. He should appreciate the turnback to 7 furlongs. I’m using him, but I’m most interested in new faces. There are reasons to like both first-time turf horses in this race, but the one that I want to bet is Slick Silver. You generally want to avoid horses that are going to get bet off dirt efforts when they’re moving to turf. However, this horse has proven that he possesses real ability and I believe he will be well suited by this surface switch. His lightly raced dam won her only turf start, and Kantharos has proven to be an excellent turf influence, especially in sprints (18% winners). You don’t see too many Steve Asmussen horses ship into New York from a different circuit outside of Saratoga, so I think it’s meaningful that they’re getting ambitious for this colt’s turf debut. The other horse that I want to include at a massive price is first time starter Carom. This may just be too difficult a spot for a horse to debut, but there are reasons to believe that this one has ability. I loved the way he was moving in his drill at the OBS sale last year, and it seems that others did, too, since $185,000 is a lot of money to pay for a son of Data Link. He comes from a classy female family that has produced top turf horses Jimmy Simms and Well Monied, as well as dirt horse Economic Model. Robert Ribaudo’s stats are skewed by a large number of cheap horses, but he knows how to get a firster ready.
Win: 1
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6,8,10
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,8
RACE 7: A TRUE GIANT (#6)
There are obviously some reasons to be concerned about leaning too heavily on A True Giant. This horse has been scratched at the gate in two consecutive planned starts after acting up. One of those was the Mike Lee against a tougher field than he faces here. It’s now been over two months since his debut, but I don’t want to let that gap take anything away from the strength of his performance that day. He earned a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that debut win, which is among the highest numbers in the field. We saw one of the soundly beaten also-rans come back to win his next start, which suggests that it may have simply been a very strong race. While some others also possess speed in this spot, they’re not quite as fast as A Tue Giant, if he breaks cleanly. Over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is 7 for 19 (37 percent, $3.53 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints at NYRA tracks. I like this horse and I think he’s going to win if he gets away cleanly. One of the major reasons that I think A True Giant looks so strong in this race is that I don’t trust his rivals. Dezzer earned a big speed figure against weaker at Monmouth last time, but I don’t trust him to transfer that form to New York. Proletariat and H Man come out of losses in a weaker race, and I think they had their chances over the winter. La Cat Warrior is somewhat intriguing off the layoff, but his debut has proven to be not quite as strong as it seemed at the time and I’m skeptical of his overall ability. I’d want to get a little creative behind A True Giant, so I’ll use Formal Start underneath in exotics. This race is loaded with vulnerable speed types, and he’s one of the few true closers that could take advantage of a pace collapse.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 4,7,8,9
Trifecta: 6 with 2,4,8,9 with 7