PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 9 - 7
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   9 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 8 - 11
Race 6:   3 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   12 - 8 - 1 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

My main take in this $30k conditioned claimer is that I’m against Paratus (#7), who could go favored as he drops in class again. I thought he was supposed to be more effective last time when facing a slightly tougher group at the $50k level, but he flattened out after attempting to rally on the turn. Good Rapport (#8) is another who could take money with Irad Ortiz aboard, and I suppose he would be competitive here if he merely repeated his maiden-breaking effort last time. Yet I think some others are more interesting at better prices. Spettro (#6) is one to consider as the potential speed, but he couldn’t get the job done at this level in November last year with a favorable trip. Ghostlyprince (#1) is a little more appealing. He had run well on turf earlier in this career before spending the winter racing on dirt at Aqueduct. He finally got back on grass last time and ran a nice race at this level. He had little chance to make up ground in a race dominated on the front end, but he was finishing up with some interest despite never seeing the rail. My top pick is Provision (#9), who figures to be a similar price. He earned a competitive TimeformUS Figure two back when chasing home some superior rivals in open allowance company. He didn’t run quite as well on synthetic last time, but turf is his preferred surface. He ran better than the results indicate in a few of his grass starts on this circuit last year, particularly when he got wide trips in September and November. He still has some upside as a lightly raced 3-year-old.

Fair Value:
#9 PROVISION, at 7-1 or greater
#1 GHOSTLYPRINCE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 4

There’s no denying that Happy Farm (#2) is the horse to beat as he drops down in class to this $40k claimer following a series of starts at the tougher $62,500 optional claiming level. His best race will almost certainly be good enough to beat this field, but I have some questions about his current form. He appeared to be doing well over the winter, consistently getting checks leading up to that 7-1 victory on March 30. However, he failed to make much of an impact in the slop next time, and then faded despite setting a moderate pace last month. I wonder if he’s starting to head the wrong way, and he seems like one that is going to take some money here, especially given rider upgrade to Flavien Prat. I have similar questions about the form of horses like Emerald Forest (#5) and Wayakin (#8). Both have plenty of back class, but they haven’t produced their best efforts in recent starts. Conversely, Catchyasoon (#1) enters this race in great form off a career-best performance when easily winning a $32k claimer last time. He seemed to improve for the Linda Rice barn, but did benefit from getting to set a slow pace on an uncontested lead. He could face more pressure this time, but I still think he merits some respect. My top pick is another horse from that May 19 race. Twenty Four Mamba (#3) finished a distant second behind Catchyasoon, but I thought he did well to rally late after a subtle trip. He got steadied heading into the clubhouse turn when forced cut off by a rival who was crossing over to the outside. He did well to recover from that loss of momentum to rally for second into a soft pace. Two also-rans from that race have already come back to significantly improve their speed figures. This gelding had shown some affinity for dirt in his first attempt for Rob Atras in March. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Charlton Baker, who does well with this move, and he has produced a couple of improved workouts since then. At a similar price, I also want to consider Lafitte’s Fleet (#4). He’s gone a mile in two of his last three starts, and that’s just a little far for him. Even though he won three back, he’s generally been most effective over shorter trips. He didn’t run that badly against a tough field last time, showing some improvement off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, and this seems like a more favorable spot.

Fair Value:
#3 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

I’m against Luna Warrior (#11), who is going to take money based on superior speed figures earned on synthetic and around two turns as he turns back in distance to this one-turn sprint. I’m troubled by his inability to finish off his races. He traveled into the lead two back like he was going to win for fun, and then he shut down in the last furlong, losing a $20k maiden claimer. He was meeting a better field last time, but he still failed to finish off that race. I’m just concerned about his will to win at what figures to be a short price. Among the alternatives are a few first time starters. Moment of Insight (#8) figures to take some money for Chad Brown, but he does have credentials and seems to be working well. I would take him seriously, and I would also consider Cubano (#10) at a bigger price. This gelding’s workout at the OBS June sale last year was impressive, though it’s taken him a while to get to the races. He might not be cranked up for his debut, but there appears to be some ability here. Yet there are others with experience who merit respect. Billy’s Got Issues (#2)showed improvement on turf last time. He was no match for winner Cynwyd and I’m not sure if there was much else behind him, but he has some upside in his second turf attempt. My top pick is Lawful (#7). This horse just lacked the speed for those 5-furlong sprints on turf and synthetic at Gulfstream over the winter, but he still ran well on a few occasions for trainer Cherie DeVaux. I was especially encouraged by his effort two back when he closed into a slow pace after getting into some early traffic. Some may view his last race as a sign he doesn’t want to go this far, but he got the wrong trip that day, going 4 to 5-wide around the second turn in a race dominated on the front end. He makes his first start after getting purchased by David Jacobson, who is 8 for 32 (25%, $2.31 ROI) off trainer switches over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#7 LAWFUL, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

Runningwscissors (#2) figures to go favored here as he seeks his third victory in a row. Yet he’s gotten two absolutely perfect trips in those victories and is now facing a tougher field despite competing at the same level as last time. He’s also ridden by Irad Ortiz, basically ensuring that he’ll be a shorter price than he otherwise would be. His main rival is Outlaw Kid (#8), who I prefer at what could be a better price. This gelding put in two excellent efforts when he returned from a layoff last year, beating a good field at Saratoga before walloping allowance competition in his next start. He disappointed in the Carle Place, and then tried dirt, but now he’s returning in the right spot. There isn’t an abundance of early speed in this race, which could make Into the Sunrise (#9) dangerous. He faced a better field last time when chasing the classy Nothing Better before fading. Yet he typically runs well when he’s able to clear off on the front end, and that seems like a real possibility in this spot. I’m certainly using him at what should be a fair price. My top pick is Pine Knoll (#5), who can also be forwardly placed. This 5-year-old has to prove he can sprint, as he’s never raced this short before. However, he strikes me as one that will benefit from the turnback. He tends to race keenly in his route races before sometimes coming up wanting in the last furlong. He’s bred to sprint, being by City Zip out of dam who has produced sprinters, including the fast dirt sprinter Jackman. Recently he’s been displaying improved early speed in synthetic races at Turfway, and he appeared to hold his form after a trainer switch to Robert Medina in March. I’m hopeful that he can get the right stalking trip just off Into the Sunrise.

Fair Value:
#5 PINE KNOLL, at 7-1 or greater
#9 INTO THE SUNRISE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

It's a little easier to use Tonal Impact (#1) now that his entrymate scratched, since you don't have to deal with a reduced price due to the overbet nature of coupled entries. Tonal Impact is definitely a contender on his own, but he is a bit of a "last time was the time" sort, and his closing running style may not suit the race flow here. Chad Brown will only send out Stage Raider (#3) and after Miles D was a vet scratch. I did give slight preference to Stage Raider anyway. He ran into a sharp winner last time and may have been somewhat compromised by spending a portion of that race on a dead rail. The only drawback is that he could now go favored with Irad Ortiz aboard. I wanted to explore other options for my top pick. Shooters Shoot (#5) returns from a lengthy layoff for a new trainer looking to get back into form. He appeared to get a new lease on life when he was initially claimed by Richard Baltas in the winter of 2022, earning a 119 TimeformUS Figure for his narrow loss in the Palos Verdes. He didn’t fare as well next time, but ran better than the result might indicate when last seen in the John Shear Mile. He now returns for Joe Sharp, who is 10 for 31 (32%, $4.34 ROI) off 240+ day layoffs in routes over the past 5 years. He shows a steady work pattern for his return, and he was once quite capable producing his best form over a mile. The price should be fair given the obstacles.

Fair Value:
#5 SHOOTERS SHOOT, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

I’ve seen enough of likely favorite Robyn and Eli (#1). She can obviously win, but she’s had her fair share of chances and usually disappoints at short prices. She was facing a tougher field last time, but she had nothing to offer in the stretch after advancing into contention on the far turn. Among the shorter prices, I prefer the lightly raced Daddyslilbosslady (#8). She debuted against a much tougher field at Gulfstream over the winter, out of which a few horses have returned to improve their speed figures. She was never a threat to win that day, but she stayed on well at the end like a horse that could handle a little extra distance. She’s certainly bred to be a turf sprinter, out of the exciting closer Rumble Doll, who won multiple sprint races on this circuit. She’s placed realistically off the layoff for Rob Falcone. My top pick at a much bigger price is Maggie (#12). This filly hasn’t gotten a chance on turf since she went two turns last September. Dismissed at a big price that day, she finished far back but never really had a chance to deliver a true effort. She was a little keen through the early stages and her rider was never able to tuck in behind runners, instead going 4-wide on the first turn before making an uncovered early move down the backstretch. She proceeded wide into the far turn before flattening out late. She subsequently improved on dirt, finishing a narrowly-beaten second when last seen in November. She deserves another chance on turf, being out of dam who won on grass and has produced a turf winner. She didn’t draw as well as when this race was first carded last week, but she should appreciate sprinting on grass and gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.

Fair Value:
#12 MAGGIE, at 9-1 or greater