by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 9 - 1 - 10
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   4 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 6 - 9 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 10 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: FLASHING RED (#5)
Vip Nation is the horse to beat as she attempts to win her second in a row. While she was dominant in victory last time, drawing off by over 4 lengths, she had everything her own way on the front end and basically turned the race into a quarter-mile sprint for home. This time she figures to get a bit more pace pressure from the likes of Athwaaq as well as potentially Flashing Red. It’s not the first time that Vip Nation has come up with a big front-running effort and she handles 7 furlongs, but I just don’t need to take her as the favorite. The alternative that appeals to me most is Flashing Red. This filly is just getting the class relief that she needs after trying 1 1/4 miles against significantly tougher company last time. Furthermore, she was setting an unreasonably quick pace in that spot, and was then indecisively taken back mid-race. That was just the wrong race and trip for her, but she had previously run well against some decent rivals over the winter at Fair Grounds. This will be the first time that she’s dropping into a straight claiming event since she won over this course last October. The cutback to 7 furlongs is a bit of a question mark, but she did win sprinting on the dirt last summer. I would also use Here Comes Jackie off the Orlando Noda claim. Her last effort was poor, but she has the prior form to factor here if she can bounce back.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,9,10
 

RACE 4: DEPUTY FLAG (#2)
Benintendi figures to be a prohibitive favorite as he returns from a lengthy layoff and drops in for a tag for the first time. This gelding looked like he was bound for stakes early in his career, following an impressive debut victory and some hard luck allowance losses. However, he never continued developing after that, and seemed to fall apart a bit last summer as a 4-year-old. He was uncharacteristically dull in his last appearance, never racing in the bridle while just getting up for second by default. He’s the horse to beat, and Brittany Russell is an impressive 5 for 11 (45%, $3.12 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints. I just have some reservations about what we’re going to get from this horse on the drop. I’m even less confident in the other favorite Advance Notice, who has been quite the money burner since winning his debut last summer at Saratoga. He might have looked like an attractive claim for $40k last time before the race, but maybe not so much after he disappointed as the 2-5 favorite. I’m skeptical that turning back will make much of a difference. I want to look for some alternatives. Some will considering the lightly raced runners drawn to the outside, and I do think Full Court Press is somewhat intriguing on the class drop. Yet my top pick is the more experienced Deputy Flag. This gelding hasn’t been seen very much during the past 18 months. He made one appearance in the summer of 2020, when making an ill-advised start on the turf. Transferred to Rudy Rodriguez, he needed a lot of time to get back to the races, but he did finally make his return last time at Parx. Notably not offered up for a tag, he ran very well within the context of that race, setting a strong pace before fading going 7 furlongs. That was a solid effort against a decent field, as runner-up Heart Rhythm has some quality. Now he gets an appropriate cutback to 6 furlongs and should show speed from the rail.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,8
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,7,8
 

RACE 8: STAR DEVINE (#7)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Star Devine, who lands in a better spot after encountering a very salty field of 3-year-olds in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly last time. Despite that stakes drawing an 11-horse field, there was very little speed signed on, and Star Devine found herself right up on the pace following a sharp break. Racing on the lead may not be the ideal running style for this filly, considering that she was so impressive when held up in her debut. That explosive turn of foot that she displayed at Aqueduct was nowhere to be found last time, as the steady pace of the Soaring Softly seemed to dull her late kick. This time there are others to go forward, and I would imagine that Joel Rosario will take this filly to mid-pack, trying to emulate the ride that Trevor McCarthy gave first time out. Added distance is not supposed to be an issue given that she’s out of a dam who is a half-sister to 12-furlong Group 1 winner Blue Bunting, winner of the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks. This 3-year-old feels like one that still has real upside in a race where some others seem like they’re already exposed. I prefer her to horses like Candy Flower and Princess Fawzia, who both earned minor awards while getting good trips in a fairly modest race at this level last time. The wild card in this field is Ice Princess, who has plenty of turf pedigree, but has been targeted at dirt races ever since winning her off-the-turf debut. If she transfers her best dirt form to turf, she has a chance, but Danny Gargan has poor stats with this move.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,6,9
 

RACE 9: TOUGH WORKOUT (#7)
I have no knocks against the likely favorite Lord Flintshire, who took a bit step forward first off the trainer switch to Jorge Abreu last time. That effort was flattered when winner Devilish Mood returned to improve against winners in his next start, and Lord Flintshire certainly had the tougher trip of the two, as he raced wide on the turns. A repeat of that performance makes him pretty tough for this field to beat, but there are a couple of interesting second time starters to consider. One of those is Straight Skinny, who just looked like a horse who badly needed his debut experience. He was green in the early stages, losing contact with the main pack as he dropped out of contention leaving the backstretch. Yet he reengaged on the turn and made a steady bid through the lane to split the field. He figures to appreciate added ground as Mark Hennig adds blinkers for his second start. Yet the problem with these two runners is that they both lack early speed, which makes me most interested in the other alternative. Tough Workout was entered for turf first time out, but stayed in when the race got rained off the grass. He showed good early speed through solid fractions before tiring late. That wasn’t a terrible effort and now he switches over to the surface for which he was intended. There isn’t a ton of immediate turf pedigree, but his second dam Half Heaven was a very talented turf and synthetic specialist. He travels like one that could appreciate turn, and he figures to lead this field for a long way.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,10