by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 9: 13 - 5 - 6 - 11
RACE 1: TEN TWENTY NINE (#2)
Playthatfunnymusic is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot, but I find him somewhat difficult to trust. He ran very well in his first start off the claim for Gary Gullo last time, grinding out a hard-fought victory over the fast-closing Big Thicket. The barn wins at a decent rate second off the claim, but horses that won in their first starts for this barn tend to get overbet when they show up again. Furthermore, he’s getting a rider switch to Irad Ortiz for this start, which is likely to attract even more money his way despite the fact that Benjamin Hernandez rode him well last time. He’s part of my play, but I prefer others at better prices. Analyze the Odds seems like a viable alternative as he drops back down to a realistic class level after chasing the vastly improved Potomac home last time. He’s earned some of the highest speed figures in this field and appears to be doing well under Mertkan Kantarmaci’s care. I’m using him, but my top pick is Ten Twenty Nine, who figures to be the biggest price of the main contenders. This horse has deceptively improved over the past several months. He ran well against New York-bred allowance company on March 9, closing to be fourth in a race that was dominated on the front end. He then encountered two sloppy tracks in a row and I’m not sure that he loves that kind of going, even though he won as the 2-5 favorite on one of those occasions. He got back on a fast track at Monmouth last time, but was competing against a classy handicap field. The top three finishers in that race all have some ability and would be heavy favorites in this spot. Ten Twenty Nine looks slower than some others, but he’s dropping in class and I like that Jose Ortiz climbs back aboard.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 4: MY LAST MILLION (#6)
Behind the Couch will be a prohibitive favorite as she drops out of stakes company. She showed promise in her first couple of starts in the maiden ranks, running well against some decent rivals without running particularly fast. She got a good trip en route to her third-place finish in the Bouwerie and just couldn't quite quicken with the top two in the last quarter mile. She is getting significant class relief as she drops back to allowance company, but Jeremiah Englehart is just 3-for-45 (7 percent, $0.91 ROI) with horses stretching out to a route on dirt for the first time at NYRA over 5 years. She has the pedigree to handle more ground, but I don’t want to accept a very short price on her. The main alternative is Not About the Nail, who is coming off a career-best 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her last start. The turnback to 6 furlongs seemed to wake her up, but she’s handled route distances in the past. Sammy Camacho rode her very well but it never hurts to get a switch to a hot rider like Dylan Davis. I’ll use her, but this 5-day turnaround is not ideal. I’m taking a shot against these two with My Last Million. This 4-year-old filly has done her best work at Finger Lakes, but she was hardly disgraced in her return over this track last month. She stayed on well to be fourth in a field that was primarily composed of improving 3-year-olds and she was arguably hitting her best stride at the wire. She was proficient going route distances last year, so the stretch-out should not pose a problem. She should be right there with routine improvement in her second start off the layoff and I like the switch to Joel Rosario.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5 with ALL
RACE 8: UNCLE SIGH (#3)
Storm Prophet is the horse to beat, but he’s a difficult runner to key on top of your wagers given his propensity to settle for minor awards. To his credit, he has been facing tougher company for the better part of the last year, racing competitively in a series of open N1X allowance races. He ran quite well to be third behind the talented duo of Expert and Blewitt two back and then last time he was never really in the hunt in an odd race at Monmouth. He appears to be in decent form and is one that you must include on any exotics tickets. J J’s Dreaming is a difficult horse to assess as he returns from the layoff. He earned TimeformUS Speed Figures last year that make him significantly faster than this field, but his form noticeably declined a the end of 2018. If he’s ready to go off the break, he’s a major player, but I find him difficult to trust. I’m even less enthusiastic about Real Dan, who could also attract some support. He may improve stretching out given his inexperience, but he’s never earned a competitive speed figure. Given my reservations with the aforementioned contenders, my top pick is the venerable 8-year-old gelding Uncle Sigh. This horse did not put forth his best efforts for the Pat Quick barn through the winter, but he got a good confidence boost when he beat a weaker claiming field last time. He was claimed out of that race by Chris Englehart, who trained this horse during his run of top efforts through the middle of 2018. If Englehart can get him back into that form, he’s arguably the horse to beat in this spot. He figures to sit a good trip and he should appreciate any moisture in the surface.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 3 with 4,5,8 with 2,4,5,6,8