by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   7 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 11 - 5 - 8
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   12 - 9 - 8 - 7

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CUMBERLAND RIVER (#7)
Carrick is probably going to go favored after a surprisingly dominant win against maiden claimers in his debut. He was actually beating a decent field that day, but he did so with the benefit of a perfect ground-saving trip. He certainly can repeat, but he faces some far more accomplished rivals in a significantly tougher spot this time. Hills Pond has to be considered a danger given his early speed. Kendrick Carmouche figures to be aggressive from this inside post position with a horse who has responded well to racing on or near the early lead in his turf starts. I’m not sure that Hills Pond is quite good enough to win, but he’s certainly one to include. I don’t really want any of the horses coming out of the May 24 race at this level, though King of Spades was badly compromised by pace dynamics. The horse I want to bet is Cumberland River. Some might say that last time was the right time to have him, but I don’t want to ignore a horse in good form. While he did get a great ride from Joe Bravo that day, he also ran very well to win that race, as there were significant gaps between runners behind him. This horse probably always was cut out to run on turf after his debut, and his connections simply misjudged him. He’s a pretty handy sort who doesn’t need to come from that far back, and I would imagine that Jose Ortiz will place him much closer to the front this time.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4

 

RACE 4: SOAR FROM SHADOWS (#6)
There are some intriguing second-time starters in this spot. The one likely to take the most money is Brie’s Lucky Charm, who finished second to the talented Mighty Scarlett in her debut. While she never threatened the winner, who came back to finish a good third in the Grade 3 Wonder Again next time out, Brie’s Lucky Charm was well clear of the rest of the group. That was a strong race, and Christophe Clement has very good numbers with second-time starters on turf getting Lasix for the first time. She’s the horse to beat. I would also include Osare, Arrogate’s half-sister, who probably needed her debut. Jonathan Thomas also has very good second-timeout statistics, but she has more improving to do. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Soar From Shadows. She’s had more chances, but I think she’s just now hitting her stride. I would be highly suspicious of the official fractions and time of her last race, as Trakus has the leader going three to four seconds slower at every call. Visually, that appeared to be a slow-paced race that turned into a sprint to the wire, and none was finishing faster than Soar From Shadows. According to Trakus, she ran her final sixteenth in a flashy 5.37 seconds. The winner, Complicit, returned to register an impressive score in her next start.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,7 with 2,3,4,7

 

RACE 6: HANNAH’S SMILE (#7)
Awsum Roar has to be considered the horse to beat, but the many gaps between starts are a significant concern. Those worries are somewhat allayed by the fact that Jason Servis is having a terrific meet and seems to be winning with nearly everything he sends out. If she repeats her prior turf sprints, the others are going to need to improve to beat her. I’m taking a shot against her with the logical alternative, Hannah’s Smile. While I was never the greatest fan of this filly last year, she actually did run well in a number of starts. Her connections showed confidence as they bypassed statebred spots to run in arguably tougher starter races. She ran well, albeit with a good pace setup, at this level in her 2017 finale. Her first start since the layoff this year was actually better than it seems considering the pace scenario. The winner, Mentality, is just better than those horses, but the race totally fell apart behind her, as the secondand third-place finishers rallied from last and second to last in the early going. Hannah’s Smile, typically a closer, was too keen coming off the break and found herself uncharacteristically close to the pace. She figures to get a more patient ride today, and I think she’s the one rival who has proven she’s good enough to run down Awsum Roar. The other filly to include at a price is Citizen Matzo, who has significant turf pedigree. However, she may have to deal with Awsum Roar on the front end.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,8,11
Trifecta: 7 with 5,11 with 1,5,8,9,10,11

 

RACE 7: RECTIFY (#8)
This is a very tricky race, since it features a slew of runners that are dropping in class off poor efforts. I think it’s important to distinguish those that have completely lost their form from the runners that may just be landing at the right class level. I find horses like Ostrolenka, Bobby on Fleek, and Royal Asset to be part of the former group. I can’t endorse them given their recent races. I’m not sure what to do with Brimstone, who appears to be the main speed. The distance may have been too short for him at Finger Lakes last time, but he was still very disappointing. Sal the Turtle is one that I think you can use, since he may have needed his return effort, which came against much tougher company. He’s in my play, but the horse that I think fits the race best is Rectify. I know that it appears he’s run badly in his last two starts, but that’s not actually the case. He was too ambitiously placed in his first start for Michelle Nevin in a race where everyone had speed. He actually didn’t run that badly to be fourth that day. He was appropriately dropped last time and I think he just got the wrong trip. He didn’t break that sharply and he ended up behind horses racing on the rail. That’s exactly where Manny Franco didn’t want to be over a sloppy track. This time, Rectify is drawn outside of the others speeds, so Franco should be able to work out a more comfortable stalking trip. If he merely holds his form, I think he’ll be tough to beat here.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,6,10

 

RACE 9: ROUGH JUSTICE (#12) / RAGING FIRE (#9)
I suppose Throw the Deuce is the horse to beat as he drops out of decent efforts against maiden special weight company. They also put blinkers on in an attempt to get this late runner a bit closer to the early pace. I’m using him, but I prefer another dropping out of maiden special weight company. Rough Justice made his debut in April against a tougher group, and he was just very green. The early pace of that race was pretty slow, and Rough Justice got rank while racing in behind horses. When he did finally get clear in the lane, he could only offer up a mild rally, but he figures to move forward in his second start. He also adds blinkers for today’s race. Since I’m not enamored with many of the more logical runners outside of Rough Justice, the other horse that I want to include is first-time turfer Raging Fire. The only times that this horse showed any interest came over sealed tracks, which is sometimes indicative of a preference for turf. Tapizar is not a bad turf influence, and this horse’s only half-sibling is 5-time turf winner Mo Maverick. There’s a fluid, turf-like action to his stride, so I think this surface switch may suit him.

Win: 12
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9,12 with 5,7,8,9,12