PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 2 - 1A - 3
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 9 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

There is ample rain predicted on Thursday, so it remains to be seen if any of these races will stay on the grass. If this one is run on turf, I wanted to take some shots against Verbal (#1), who could go favored here for Chad Brown. This runner obviously showed ability as a two-year-old, and put in an encouraging return from the long layoff in the Tampa Bay Stakes over the winter. However, I thought his last effort at Keeneland was pretty disappointing. He failed to step forward, unable to produce a kick after pulling a good trip. There are other rivals in here with some quality who I preferred at better prices. Easter (#5) makes plenty of sense as he drops in class out of the Grade 3 Dinner Party. He won his first start of the season on this circuit against weaker, and might just be getting back to the right class level here. Duke of Hazzard (#3) also has the credentials to be effective in this spot, and he would be better served by a more aggressive ride after he was ripped well off the pace last time at Keeneland. He’s a win candidate at his best and should be a fair price. My top pick is Chasing the Crown (#4), who might have the most upside of any of these. I thought this 4-year-old put in a huge effort off the layoff at Gulfstream in January when he attacked a swift pace and battled on gamely for third behind the revelation of this year’s turf division, Up to the Mark. He then couldn’t make an impact in a race run at a much slower pace two back before beating up on weaker foes last time. He delivered as the heavy favorite in that Churchill allowance, but I was really impressed with the way he sustained a half-mile run and lengthened his stride through the lane. This full-brother to excellent turf mare Vasilika appears to be coming along nicely and may have stakes in his future if he passes this test.

Fair Value:
#4 CHASING THE CROWN, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4

If this stays on grass, I was somewhat against a couple of the expected short prices. Act of Congress (#9) figures to attract support off her victory against claiming foes at Pimlico last month, but she got her things her own way up front that day. Now she has to move up in class while stretching out to 6 furlongs in a race that features other speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should help late runners. Western Lane (#2) has some questions to answer regarding her overall form, which has declined in recent starts. However, she did run well in her lone prior turf sprint attempt last September and is finally getting back to that same distance. Boss of All (#4) beat weaker last time, but I liked the way she confidently traveled into the race and took over in the stretch. This is a significant step up in class, but I get the sense she’s better than the typical NY-bred maiden claiming winner. My top pick is Bustin Bullet (#8). She improved throughout the season last year, culminating with a strong second-place finish against state-board allowance company in November. She had a right to need a start coming off the layoff in April, and then didn’t get the best trip last time. She wasn’t ridden with much aggression early and got put in an awkward spot between and behind runners on the turn. She flattened out late, but I think turning back to 6 furlongs will suit her better, and now she gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis.

Fair Value:
#8 BUSTIN BULLET, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7

This state-bred optional claimer drew a competitive field of 7 runners led by 11-time winner Big Engine (#1). This 8-year-old spent much of the winter and spring competing against tougher open company rivals, where he actually had some success for Linda Rice. However, he got some welcome class relief last time, dropping back down to this New York-bred level. He ran an improved race, but the trip didn’t quite work out, as he was uncharacteristically close to the pace and couldn’t quite produce a strong enough finish to withstand the late runs of Awesome Native and Brew Pub, both of whom are in great form. This is a slightly softer spot than that, and he looks like the horse to beat. His main rival might be Daufuskie Island (#6), who got a confidence boost with his near 20-length victory two back against claimers and followed up that performance with another strong effort first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He was beating slightly softer company in that May 29 affair, but he did it the hard way, contesting a fast pace and holding off the closers. A repeat of that 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure will make him tough, but he will have to contend with other speed this time. Unique Unions (#4) and Foolish Ghost (#5) hooked up in the early stages of an April 30 race at this level, where they dueled each other into defeat. I wonder if the pace of this race could take a similar toll with Daufuskie Island also likely to force the issue. Thrill of It (#3) finished fourth, beaten nearly 5 lengths in that April 30 race at this level. However, he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he broke a step slowly and looked uncomfortable negotiating the turn. He was staying on gamely through the stretch, but got guided down to the inside, which perhaps wasn’t the place to be. I was impressed by his return from the layoff two back when he made a decisive move through traffic to win by open lengths in solid time. Now he gets Jaime Torres back aboard and figures to be a fair price, especially if some downgrade him on the assumption that he can’t handle a wet track.

Fair Value:
#3 THRILL OF IT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

Chad Brown holds a strong hand here, sending out the two favorites on the morning line, if this race can stay on the turf. Big Brass Bed (#8) is obviously a contender based on her maiden win at Monmouth, for which she earned a solid 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She did get a perfect trip that day, but still delivered in her first start for the Chad Brown stable. She makes some sense, but I thought her uncoupled stablemate was more interesting. Root Cause (#4) ran pretty well in her debut at Saratoga last year. She returned as the heavy favorite when she made her 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream, and delivered a confident victory. She raced covered up in behind rivals early and produced a nice late kick when Irad wheeled her out in upper stretch. She was then bet down to strong favoritism again last time for her first start against winner, but the result was disappointing. She got a different sort of trip, pressing an honest pace without cover, which may have sapped her stamina. I would expect her to get taken off the pace with this time Irad back aboard, looking to again produce that strong finish. I would also use Lifelovenlaughter (#5) and Quarrel (#6) along with the Chad Brown-trained selection. Lifelovenlaughter was placed in some tough spots last year, and showed mild improvement off a layoff last time against older rivals. Michael Trombetta has strong statistics second off a layoff. Quarrel also showed potential last year, and had a right to need a start when she returned against stakes company. This is a more appropriate spot, and her tactical speed figures to play well here.

Fair Value:
#4 ROOT CAUSE, at 9-5 or greater