by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 8 - 3 - 1 - 9
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 1A - 2 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
RACE 1: EDDY DIRT (#4)
Fallinginloveagain is probably the horse to beat as he returns from the layoff and drops down to this bottom level. He won his debut at Laurel last spring, but he arguably put forth his best effort next time out in July at Belmont despite finishing last. That was an incredibly tough field for the level, and Fallinginloveagain did well to only lose by 10 lengths after stumbling very badly at the start. A repeat of that 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a major player here, but he may need to run back to that effort in order to win. I’m using him defensively, but Michelle Nevin does not have great numbers with horses coming off layoffs of this type. Curlin’s New Moon is a more reliable contender. He’s earned multiple speed figures that should win races at this level. The only problem with him is that he so rarely wins races. He also does not possess much tactical speed, and that could be detrimental in a race that the Pace Projector indicates is a No Speed situation. While such scenarios do not always favor front-runners, I do think that Eddy Dirt could be dangerous in this race if Irad Ortiz decides to get aggressive with him. He was ridden from a forward position last time in another race at this level, but he just went a bit too fast on the lead. Tiz No Bluff, the winner, was just a superior horse, and the race fell apart behind him. Eddy Dirt only lost third by a length to Poker Game, and that runner returned to win his next start. He was also dueling with Fed Fever in the early going, and he returned to win his next start at Monmouth with a TimeformUS Speed Figure that was 15 points higher. Rudy Rodriguez’s runners have been performing well lately, and I think this horse is dangerous at a square price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5
RACE 4: DISQUIET (#1)
Chillinwithfriends is the horse to beat as she drops to maiden-claiming company on dirt for the first time. This filly showed real promise in her debut as a 2-year-old, closing to finish third behind a pair of runners who were well meant in what seemed to be a live maiden race. However, she’s been in a downward spiral ever since. She returned in April and had the misfortune of running into subsequent Bouwerie winner Newly Minted. Yet it’s not as if she did much running behind the winner, only managing to close belatedly for fifth. While her recent performances are hardly inspiring, a repeat of any of her dirt efforts still might win this race. I’d use her prominently, but there’s no guarantee that she is going to handle the stretch-out in distance, and I think there is one intriguing alternative to consider. My top pick is Disquiet, who makes her return to dirt after a failed turf attempt. She had some pedigree to handle the grass, but plenty of her siblings have been better dirt horses. Assessing her solely on her dirt debut at Aqueduct, she makes some sense in this spot. That was a much tougher field, as both Wadadli Princess and Kid Is Frosty have gone on to race competitively in stakes events. Furthermore, Disquiet was racing wide that day over a course that was strongly favoring the inside path. She’s bred to handle route distances, so if she can improve at all on that dirt unveiling, she has a shot to take down the favorite.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6
RACE 6: SO CHARMING (#4)
Kreesie appears to be the horse to beat as she moves back into open company after finishing a good third in the Mount Vernon. The winner of that race, Fifty Five, is arguably the best New York-bred turf mare in training, and runner-up Munchkin Money came back to win against open company in her next start. Kreesie’s 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure from that effort is the highest number in this field, and Kreesie had hinted at having that kind of ability at the end of 2018. My one concern is the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles since she does appear to be at her best going a flat mile. That said, this race could turn into a sprint to the wire given the lack of pace. I’m not sure what to make of Zarmella, whose French form is decent but who is now returning from a lengthy layoff. Christophe Clement does not have the best statistics with foreign shippers of this sort. Repatriated Gem is somewhat intriguing as she faces older horses for the first time. She showed good improvement when closing behind the undefeated Café Americano last time but must step forward again to contend with this bunch. I’m taking a shot with So Charming. This mare can be somewhat inconsistent, but she has run well enough to win at this level on a few occasions. She closed strongly to be a good second behind subsequent stakes winner Lady Paname over this course last year. After some disappointing efforts through the winter, she got back on track at Belmont last time. That May 24 race did not exactly set up for closers, and So Charming put in a strong late rally through traffic to get up for third. This nine-furlong distance seems perfect for her, and Irad Ortiz should be a good fit.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7,8
RACE 8: NOT THAT BRADY (#5)
This race features the return of impressive 2-year-old debut winner Looking At Bikinis, who won his maiden last September in the slop. He led throughout while registering an impressive score over eventual Sunland Park Derby winner Cutting Humor. It’s taken this horse a while to get back to the races, and now he’ll be stretching out for the first time as he makes his first start in nearly 10 months. The added ground should not be a problem since sire Lookin At Lucky generally gets horses who go route distances and the dam was best between seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles on turf. I’m using him prominently, but he’s running into some more seasoned rivals with real ability. Todd Pletcher has entered a pair, of which Overdeliver seems more appealing. This horse lost all chance in the Wood Memorial two back when badly hampered in that traffic jam after the start. He returned with a solid performance going six furlongs last time at Pimlico and should appreciate getting back out to a mile. I’m using him, but I actually prefer another horse coming out of the Wood Memorial. Not That Brady was dismissed at 40-1 that day, but he actually ran an exceptional race to be fifth. He dueled for the early lead with Joevia, eventually putting that rival away at the quarter pole before getting swallowed up by the closers. The form of the Wood has been strong, as Tacitus came back to run well in the Triple Crown events and Joevia went on to be third in the Belmont Stakes. Not That Brady had shown serious ability over the winter, and his best TimeformUS Speed Figures of 120 and 119 tower over this field. If he’s still able to perform at that level, he’s going to be a handful.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 9: BRITTAS BAY (#5)
This is a highly competitive finale, in which you can make strong cases for any number of contenders. One of the more intriguing runners in this line-up is the first time starter, Nay Lady Nay. This 3-year-old daughter of No Nay Never is a full-sister to recent Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Arizona, so she is clearly bred to be a top turf sprinter. She looked great working a quarter-mile in 21 2/5 seconds at the OBS Sale in 2018. It’s taken her some time to get to the races and Chad Brown is not known for unveiling his top runners in turf sprints, yet this filly still must be respected. I’m using her, but I’m more interested in some of those with experience. Global Exchange makes plenty of sense as she comes back for her second start off the layoff. She ran fine in her 3-year-old debut in mid-May, but she only beat Miss You Blues by a neck, and that filly is going to be a much better price. I’ll use both, but I’m interested in a filly trained by Welsey Ward. Lady Worthington figures to attract some support and she would be formidable if she could ever get back to her debut performance. Yet I’m most intrigued by her stablemate Brittas Bay. This daughter of Scat Daddy was meant to get on turf in her third start at Saratoga last summer, but got rained off the grass. She finally got on this surface in her 2-year-old finale at Kentucky Downs, and she gave a solid account of herself while finishing third against males. That race is probably better than the speed figure indicates, since a few runners have returned to run much better than in their subsequent starts. Brittas Bay returned to action at Keeneland this spring in a $100,000 maiden claimer and she showed improved speed before fading to second. That performance was vastly superior to any of her prior dirt efforts, which gives me some confidence that she can do even better with this switch to turf. She was actually entered to run in that May 18 maiden event, but was scratched after getting loose behind the starting gate. Therefore, I wouldn’t be too deterred by the layoff since April.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6