PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 9 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 9 - 8 - 6
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   1A - 3 - 5 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: CIRCUMNAVIGATE (#6)
At first glance, The Orphan Miracle looks like the horse to beat. He's run the fastest speed figures and is taking a significant drop in class. However, he's coming off a lengthy layoff, and his performances just prior to that break were markedly inferior to his early efforts. In that context, this drop in class is not a positive sign. I think this horse is vulnerable, and I will try to beat him with Circumnavigate. This runner's early dirt races are pretty decent. He ran better than it appears in his second start after getting away slowly and making a late run up the rail. I'm not sure that he's really a turf horse, but he had significant trouble when shuffled back on the turn of that most recent start. Now, he's adding blinkers and getting a switch to Dylan Davis, who has been riding well. He could lead this field all the way.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7

RACE 5: DR. EDGAR (#1)
The public is likely to gravitate toward two runners coming off wins at this meet, Peppermint Zip and Portando. Of the two, I prefer Portando, who beat a tougher field last time, albeit with the help of a favorable pace scenario. He makes sense here, but there are some more interesting runners in this race. One of those is Driven by Thunder, who switches surfaces for Todd Pletcher. He has no grass pedigree on the dam's side, but Overdriven is proving to be a good turf influence. I'll use him, but my top pick is Dr. Edgar. This gelding really improved at the end of last season. He got a mildly uncomfortable trip in his 2016 finale and did well to nearly win in a blanket finish. He's drawn well down toward the inside and should sit a great stalking trip. His trainer, Carl Domino, is 7 for 25 (28 percent) with a $3.33 ROI with runners coming off layoffs of 180 days or longer over the past five years.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5

RACE 6: RECONSIDER IT (#3)
Pure Gemmz was made the favorite, but I'm not really afraid of this horse. She earned a competitive speed figure last time, but there was really nothing of any quality behind her that day, and I think she may be an underlay here. I prefer those dropping out of maiden special weight company – particularly the two exiting a race from June 9. Both Divine Cause and Reconsider It had wide trips that day in a race dominated by horses who came up the rail. I'm leaning toward Reconsider It since she figures to offer better value. She ran deceptively well sprinting as a 2-year-old and may just be racing into fitness this year. At a huge price, I'll also throw in longshot Claudia's Vision. She's done very little running in her dirt races, but she has a pedigree that suggests she is supposed to significantly move up with this switch to turf.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,6,9
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8

RACE 8: RIMANISEMPREFORTE (#2)
Vagabond is the deserving favorite in this spot. She returned from the layoff May 10 with a decent effort. While she didn't encounter any serious trouble that day, she may not have appreciated having to rally up the rail in the stretch. She figures to sit a good trip here and makes plenty of sense. However, I'm going to try to get the 3-year-old Rimanisempreforte to turn the tables on her. I think this filly has been showing signs of improvement in recent starts. While she's never finished in the money on turf, this is clearly her preferred surface. She didn't run that badly two back against Vagabond, and last time, she rallied mildly into a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs). She should be able to sit a bit closer in this smaller field, and she's likely to get ignored in the wagering.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6

RACE 9: HIDDEN VOW (#1A)
This is primarily a two-horse race between With Exultation and Hidden Vow. The former has been keeping better company, but his performances have not been particularly inspiring. He can be very inconsistent, so it's hard to know what we're going to get from him today. He will appreciate the class drop, but George Weaver has been very cold at this meet. I prefer Hidden Vow, who ran a winning race last time but just could not hold on late after prematurely attacking a fast pace. This horse is better when he can come from a bit farther back, and that should be the strategy employed today as he gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. The Pace Projector is predicting he will get a fast pace to close into.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,9