by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 10 - 4 - 8
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 10 - 9 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 1A - 2 - 8
RACE 2: GAILHORSEWIND (#3)
Favoritism in this maiden turf sprint figures to go to either the Wesley Ward-trained Six Feet Apart or the MyRacehorse filly Quick Conversation. At first glance, the former has an appealing look to her, having finished third in her only start at Keeneland after setting the pace. Ward’s runners have been performing exceptionally well at this meet, and he’s a remarkable 8 for 11 when teaming up with John Velazquez. However, she wasn’t meeting the strongest field in that prior effort, and she didn’t have much excuse to surrender in the lane. I’m slightly more optimistic about Quick Conversation, who put in a solid late rally to fall just short going this same distance on May 1. She got a pretty good trip that day but ran a competitive speed figure and now gets the services of excellent turf sprint pilot Joel Rosario. I’m using her, but I actually prefer a different runner out of that race. Gailhorsewind is a filly that I’ve been waiting to show up in the entries after her sneaky debut, in which she finished about 2 lengths behind Quick Conversation. She clearly wasn’t meant to win that day, considering that she was sent off at 54-1 and is trained by Linda Rice, who almost always gives her first time starters a race. Yet, in spite of the fact that she wasn’t fully cranked, this filly showed turf ability. She was fairly sluggish in the early going, but put in a nice run around the far turn to reach contention. She looked like she might mount a stretch bid before ducking in awkwardly and clipping the heel of her stablemate in upper stretch. After that, Hector Diaz barely even rode her to the finish yet she lost by less than 3 lengths. She’s likely to benefit a great deal from that experience and now she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano. She’s my top pick, and I would also use the Chad Brown European import Isle of White, who could turn things around in her U.S. debut for the new barn.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,8 with 1,7,8,9
RACE 4: DUSTGETSINYOUREYES (#7)
Sheriff Bianco and King Angelo hooked up early in a race at this level on April 15 and dueled for five furlongs before getting overhauled by first time starter War Terminator in deep stretch. Sheriff Bianco just edged out King Angelo for second, and now they will match up against each other for a second time at the same distance. That prior start was contested over a yielding turf course at Aqueduct, and they could once again catch a grass horse with some moisture in it after significant rainfall last weekend. They’re both legitimate contenders, but I think there is one intriguing alternative. Dustgetsinyoureyes made one start as a 2-year-old last season, finishing third in a two-turn maiden event at Aqueduct. While he faded in the last furlong, he ran quite well within the context of the pace situation, as he attended some quick early fractions and put away the other speeds before succumbing to a couple of closers. The jury is still out with regard to the overall quality of that field, but I think Dustgetsinyoureyes is a candidate to improve turning back in distance. He’s out of a dam who won sprinting on the turf, and War Dancer has been an effective turf sprint sire. I expect an improved performance in his 3-year-old debut.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,10
RACE 5: EQUAL PAY (#6)
There’s plenty of guesswork to be done in this intriguing maiden special weight event, which features a few potentially live first time starters. Yet the horse to beat is one with experience. After the Party faded to finish third in her debut at Aqueduct on Apr. 11, but that was arguably the strongest maiden race for fillies run in New York all year. Winner Always Carina looks like the early favorite for the Mother Goose after winning an allowance race in her next start, and runner-up Amendment Nineteen returned to graduate last week. If this Jeremiah Englehart trainee improves at all on her debut performance, in which she deuled with the eventual winner, she’s going to be tough for this field to handle. Among the first time starters, the MyRacehorse-owned Todd Pletcher-trained filly Lady Valentine figures to attract plenty of support. She’s posted some quick workout times and is reportedly training well for her debut. However, she doesn’t figure to offer much value, and could even challenge After the Party for favoritism. I prefer another firster, Equal Pay. Klaravich Stables bought this filly for $475k as a yearling, which is quite a bit of money to pay for a filly whose most notable half-sibling is turf marathoner Conviction Trade. While there is plenty of grass on the bottom side of her pedigree, she’s by versatile sire Quality Road, she she has a right to possess some speed. I like what I’ve seen of her training leading up to this debut, as it’s worth noting that her May 9 drill matches that of the aforementioned Always Carina. Chad Brown can sometimes get overbet with debut runners on dirt, but the presence of the two aforementioned fillies should ensure that she’s a square price.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 2,6
RACE 8: PLUM ALI (#10)
Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand in this Grade 3 Wonder Again, sending out a couple of fillies who have each never finished out of the exacta on turf. The stronger half of his uncoupled pair is undoubtedly morning-line favorite Jouster, who has been well-bet in all of her turf starts following a dazzling maiden score on this surface back in January. She possesses plenty of early speed and on occasion has done a little too much on the front end, as was the case two back when she launched her sprint for home too soon and got reeled in late. She comes off a victory in the Appalachian in which she beat today’s rivals Gift List and Plum Ali, but she had all the best of it on the front end setting pedestrian fractions. Those two fillies who followed her across the wire ran every bit as well and arguably have more upside in this spot. Gift List returned from that Appalachian defeat in her U.S. debut to win the Edgewood in impressive fashion. It helped that main rival Aunt Pearl failed to show up, hampered by a bleeding incident, but Gift List nevertheless delivered a strong effort in victory. She has to prove that she can handle a more demanding 9-furlong distance here, but she’s one to respect in her current form. Yet the one I prefer most out of the Appalachian is Plum Ali. This Christophe Clement trainee showed a great deal of talent as a two-year-old, winning the first three starts of her career in impressive fashion. She was no match for Aunt Pearl in the Breeders’ Cup when never able to produce her typical late rally, but I thought she took a step forward in her return from the layoff last time. Although she was beaten two lengths by Jouster, she was finishing fastest of all late. She has to overcome a wide draw this time, but she strikes me as one that should relish the added ground. I’ll trust in Joel Rosario to work out a trip. Chad Brown also has a couple of contenders in this incredibly deep Grade 3, led by the Irish-bred Technical Analysis. She produced an electrifying turn of foot to win her 3-year-old debut last time against a solid allowance field. As tough as this field is, it would be no surprise if she were ready to tackle stakes company, and she has the tactical speed to get the jump on most of her rivals. And I wouldn’t totally discount Brown’s other runner Fluffy Socks, who got rolling too late in the Memories of Silver last time. She could appreciate the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles more than anyone.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,6,7,9
Trifecta: 10 with 6,9 with 2,5,6,7,9
RACE 9: EVVIE JETS (#5)
Miss Bonnie T is probably the horse to beat, but she’s starting to run out of chances after losing narrow decisions in each of her last three starts. She arguably ran the best race when she lost her second start as a 2-year-old, and she had the excuse of a layoff two back. However, she was supposed to get the job done last time after getting first run on the leaders. She’s obviously a contender once again, but she’s going to be a much shorter price than she’s been in her recent starts. Chad Brown has a pair of runners, led by the stretching-out Split Then Double. She clearly stepped forward with the switch to turf last year, launching a nice stretch rally to fall just short going 6 furlongs. She was compromised by a slow pace that day and should be able to handle this one-mile distance in her 3-year-old debut. I’m not against her, but she’s another who figures to vie for favoritism. My top pick is another filly making her 3-year-old debut. Evvie Jets showed some promise last year, nearly winning her debut going this distance at 37-1. She got plenty of pace to close into that day, and was somewhat disappointing when finishing fourth as the favorite in her next start. However, she may not have appreciated the cutback to 6 furlongs. She fared better when stretched back out even though she could only manage to finish fourth again. That Nov. 21 affair at Aqueduct was one of the toughest maiden turf races of the season for 2-year-olds and she made a nice late run into a slow pace to be fourth. The Tony Dutrow barn has had a successful year so far, and this filly can be right there with any kind of forward move.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,8