by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 4: 12 - 3 - 7 - 11
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 1/1A - 11
Race 6: 15 - 12 - 14 - 2
Race 7: 10 - 1 - 13 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 8 - 3 - 13
Race 10: 9 - 10 - 2 - 1
RACE 3: BIG THICKET (#2)
Shamrock Kid comes off a decisive victory at this level when last seen in mid-March, and that arguably makes him the horse to beat. He had gone off form late last year, but it seemed like he had gotten back on track just before the racing hiatus. At his best he’s among the most talented runners in this field, but he’s been most effective going longer distances than this. Even when he was successful sprinting early in his career, he never won going as short as six furlongs. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Gary Gullo, who is 26 for 103 (25%, $2.40 ROI) with this move in dirt sprints over 5 years. He should be dangerous if he gets some pace ahead of him. One of his main rivals is Bronx Bomber, and things really started to click for this gelding over the winter. He ran a claiming field off their feet on Jan. 24 and then repeated the feat against a tougher group of N1X state-bred foes in February. Yet it’s his last effort, a loss, that may have ben his best. He should have been overmatched against $40k/N2X runners, but he was nearly up to the challenge, fending off all but a pair of superior rivals. He’d be tough to beat if able to show up here with that kind of form, but over 3 months have passed since then, so it’s fair to wonder if he’ll still be as sharp. Nevertheless, he can’t be dismissed as the stronger half of this Drawing Away entry. I’ll use both of these runners, but my top pick is the deep closer Big Thicket. He is one of many runners here exercising a new option to have the claiming tag waived for his first start back. This 5-year-old has spent the majority of his career contesting dirt routes, but he really took to sprinting in his two chances to turn back in distance over the winter. He exploded with an 8-length victory back in December, and a repeat of that effort would surely put him in the winner’s circle here. He also made a strong move from last to just miss last time going this distance last time, in a race where today’s rival San Juan Diego also ran well. Now Big Thicket goes out for Rudy Rodriguez, who is 51 for 167 (31%, $2.19 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints over 5 years. Furthermore, there appears to be some pace in this race with Bustin Shout, Bronx Bomber, and Foolish Ghost all likely to show speed.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6,8
RACE 5: DEVANT (#8)
It will be interesting to see how much money this entry takes, as both halves of this pairing would be among the top choices in this race as single wagering interests. Clara Peeters made her U.S. debut at the Fair Grounds earlier this year and nearly got the job done after making a strong move from last to just miss. That was going a two-turn mile, but she shouldn’t have a major issue turning back to 7 furlongs here, as she handled that distance in Europe. The one issue is that she hasn’t exactly been a winning type and she showed that same tendency to hang last time. Her entrymate Stone Tornado has been an all-or-nothing type over in Europe. At her best she fits against a field like this, but it remains to be seen if this 7-furlong distance will be in her wheelhouse. Another European import, Madeleine Must, arguably comes over with comparable form lines, having won a listed stakes in France two back before beating a few home in a Group 1 event last time. Yet she goes out for Christophe Clement, who doesn’t have the strongest statistics with first time foreign imports. She tried this distance in the Prix Amandine over a straightaway last July, and she was actually beaten that day by today’s rival Devant. Devant actually had a tough trip in that Prix Amandine, and eventually made it this country later in 2019. She showed some promise in her U.S. debut, but things went awry after that. Yet she’s had legitimate excuses in her last two starts. She was just left with way too much ground to make up two back after encountering some traffic in upper stretch, and then last time she was asked to go a distance that is just too short for her. She has more ability than it might seem, and I think this one-turn 7 furlongs will hit her right between the eyes. I’d also upgrade Kreesie if she’s a square price. She’s focused on longer races recently, but she’s been successful going this distance in the past and was in career form when last seen in late 2019.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6,7,11
Trifecta: 8 with 1,2 with 1,2,6,7,11
RACE 6: HAPPY HILL LIL (#15)
This is a wide-open maiden claimer in which the favorites just haven’t shown much yet, so I want to focus on a couple of prices. Within the main body of the field I’m intrigued by Angels This filly was making her first start back from a 7-month layoff last time, so she had a right to need the race. She ran up into a contending position on the backstretch, but then was forced to race extremely wide around the far turn. All things considered, she stayed on well to be fifth. Now she gets a rider switch to a high-percentage jockey from an apprentice who doesn’t win much, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her show more speed this time. It’s not as if she has to improve that much to take down some of the shorter prices. Yet, I’d make my top pick Happy Hill Lil if this filly can draw in off the also-eligible list. She debuted back in March at Aqueduct and ran better than her fifth-place result would indicate. She was off slowly and found herself far back in the early going. Yet she steadily advanced on the turn and continued to pass horses through the lane after having to alter course in upper stretch. The winner of that event, Touch of Nirvana, was a heavy favorite with a significant class advantage, so Happy Hill Lil did well to only miss 3rd by about 2 lengths behind that runaway winner. Now she gets Lasix for the first time and doesn’t need to improve that much to beat this field.
Win: 15
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 15 with 2,6,7,12,14
RACE 8: MYSTIC GUIDE (#6)
This is a very intriguing allowance race, which features a number of horses who could eventually wind up in stakes for 3-year-olds later this summer. Chad Brown has a pair entered in this spot, including the highly-touted Basquiat. This son of American Pharoah won his debut in impressive fashion in late April at Gulfstream, handling the 7 furlongs without issue, and drawing off late like one who shouldn’t mind a little added ground. Some may be deterred by the fact that runner-up Ashiham returned to disappoint as the favorite at Churchill Downs last week, but he actually improved his speed figures that day (both Beyer and TimeformUS) despite losing. Another runner who merits consideration is Tap It To Win. This ridgling has shown a real deal of ability in his two victories, but his pair of route efforts sandwiched between those performances have been dismal. So is he simply a sprinter, or did something go awry when he tried stakes company last year? He’s certainly bred to get added ground as a son of Tapit out of a stamina-oriented female family. Furthermore, it’s not as if there’s a ton of early speed in this race, so he could work out a good trip. I’m using him prominently. Yet my top pick is the recent maiden winner Mystic Guide. This Godolphin runner is bred to be a star as a son of the top racemare Music Note, and he’s shown real promise in his two starts to date. He just found the six furlongs of his debut to be a bit too short for him, but he took a nice step forward in his second start. Jockey Brian Hernandez rode him like he was the best horse that day, keeping him wide around the second turn, and he finished off that field impressively. If he continues this forward progression, he’ll be a handful in this spot. The one other horse that I would throw into the mix is Will Sing for Wine. He won a tough maiden event at Aqueduct last time and showed ability over this track in his debut as a 2-year-old.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,4,5,8
RACE 9: STANDARD DEVIATION (#1)
The horse to beat is obviously Sadler’s Joy. He’s been a solid presence in races like this for years now, often competing against some of the top runners in this division in Grade 1 events. This Tiller Stakes represents a drop in class for him, as he’s been beaten by the top runner in this division, Zulu Alpha, in his last two starts down at Gulfstream. There is a question as to whether Sadler’s Joy has lost a step this year given his lackluster performances so far in 2020, but I believe he’s had legitimate excuses. He lost all chance in the Pegasus World Cup Turf two back, blowing the start before getting spun out wide on the far turn. And then last time I thought Javier Castellano didn’t time his move properly, as he had to alter course in traffic at the quarter pole. This is probably Sadler’s Joy’s best distance and I believe he’s the most likely winner. Yet there are some others to consider. The other Grade 1 winner in this field is Channel Maker, but his recent form leaves something to be desired. He also got steadied in traffic in the Mac Diarmida, but his surrounding efforts have been disappointing. He’s a difficult horse to ride, and it’s just hard to know when he’s going to show up. I believe the biggest threat to the favorite is the 4-year-old Standard Deviation. This former Chad Brown runner made his first start for the Graham Motion barn in the Amir Trophy in Doha earlier this year, and he put forth a very encouraging effort in his first attempt going a marathon distance. French King was winning that race for the second year in a row, and he sprinted for home after getting a soft trip up front. Standard Deviation idled a bit in upper stretch, but he put in a serious late bid once he hit top gear in the final furlong. He had shown some promise as a younger horse and just appears to be putting everything together now. At a bigger price, the other horse that I would throw into the mix is the European import Corelli. He may actually want to go longer distances than this, but he showed some solid form in handicaps last year and appears to fit well with this group based on his Timeform Ratings overseas.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,8,11,13
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,4,5,11,12,13
RACE 10: DANCING KIKI (#9)
La Kara Mia is going to attract support due to her pedigree, as a daughter of the popular mare La Verdad. Yet this isn’t really a turf pedigree, so the fact that Linda Rice is debuting her on this surface seems to suggest that she might need a race, as is often the case with runners for this barn. If she is indeed the favorite here, I’ll let her beat me. There are other runners in this field that are more appealing. Of the first time starters, both Towering Gaze and Cake are intriguing. The former is a David Donk trainee who is a half-sister to solid turf sprinters Saratoga Treasure and Veterans Beach. Cake goes out for Steve Asmussen, who isn’t exactly known for his prowess with firsters on the turf. But this one has arguably the best turf pedigree in the field, out of a turf-winning dam who is a half-sister to millionaire turfer Wilcox Inn. I’m using both of them, but my top pick is Dancing Kiki. Those looking for a horse with experience may gravitate towards Snicket and that rival may handle turf, but Dancing Kiki also has a pedigree that suggests she should like this surface and she’ll be a better price. Dancing Kiki is out of a dam who was a stakes winner on the turf and she is a half-sister to Impazible Odds, a runner who was significantly better on turf than dirt. Furthermore, Dancing Kiki is by a better turf sire, Blame, than her half-brother. If she moves up at all with this surface switch, she should be right there at the end.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,6,10