by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 12 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 1 - 9
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 9: 11 - 2 - 6 - 1
RACE 1: CRACKSPEED (#5)
I suppose Hierarchy may go off as a slight favorite as he makes his second start off the layoff following a runner-up finish in a similar spot in late April. The stretch-out to 1 3/8 miles should be the key for a horse who has put forth his best efforts going 10 furlongs. I’m somewhat wary of his main rival, Kulin Rock. Mike Maker drops him in for a $25,000 tag two starts after he attained a Grade 2 placing, suggesting that he may have exhausted this gelding’s potential. He’s run his last two races with front bandages on, which is unusual to see on turf. Pillar Mountain is more appealing as he seeks to improve off his return race at Churchill Downs. He ran well going this distance last summer at Saratoga, but he did so over a boggy turf course that he clearly loved. Since I’m not enamored with any of these runners, I’m taking a shot with first-time turfer Crackspeed. This 5-year-old Argentine-bred horse was Group 1-placed on dirt in that country prior to being purchased by Earle Mack. Yet I get the sense that this horse has more of a turf inclination. Dirt surfaces in South America are nothing like North American dirt surfaces in that they are often packed down – akin to a sealed track – allowing turf horses to compete over them. Crackspeed is by Easing Along, a Phipps-bred sire who has turned into a solid turf influence in Argentina, producing top grass runners like Interaction (San Juan Capistrano winner) and Suggestive Boy (Frank Kilroe Mile winner). Crackspeed projects to be the controlling speed in this paceless affair, and he’s been working well over the Belmont turf course in preparation for this race.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
RACE 2: TIERGAN (#3)
Doups Point seems like the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. There was some debate as to whether he was a turf horse or a dirt horse following his 2-year-old campaign, and he gave Christophe Clement some answers last time by running so well in the slop. The race earned a respectable speed figure, and winner Dynamax Prime returned to record another victory in his subsequent start, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 12 points. If Doups Point maintains that form or improves at all, he will be tough to beat in this spot. His main rival may be Red Zinger, who steps up out of maiden company. He’s run well in all of his starts since returning from the layoff, and may have been somewhat hindered by attending fast paces in his two most recent outings. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer Doups Point. My top pick is Tiergan, who returns from a brief layoff for Bill Mott. This colt showed some talent over the winter and into early sprint. He did not get an ideal trip when closing behind the talented Blindwillie McTell in January, and then he stepped forward with a good runner-up finish in February. He notably closed to be second that day despite racing wide over an intensely rail-biased track. His most recent outing in April was somewhat disappointing, but he was floated extremely wide when attempting to rally on the far turn, losing momentum in the process. He’s better than that, and I think he still has more room for improvement. He gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano, and I’m hoping he can sit a bit closer to the pace this time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,8
RACE 5: BLAHNIK (#4)
The two fillies likely to vie for favoritism are exiting the same race at Keeneland. Queen Medb held off Keepme in Thegame for second in that April 24 event, but the latter filly undoubtedly ran the better race. Whereas Queen Medb was sitting in a perfect spot stalking the pace on the rail throughout, Keepme in Thegame had to rally from the back of the pack and was the only horse making up significant ground in a race dominated by the leaders. Keepme in Thegame is bred to be a nice filly as a half-sister to Grade 1-winning millionaire New Money Honey, and she is a deserving favorite. I’m using her prominently, but there are some intriguing fillies making their debuts and switching surfaces. I’d consider a runner like Savvy Cairo, who gets on turf for the first time after debuting in a dirt sprint. She is out of a dam who earned nearly $300,000, excelling on turf and synthetic surfaces, and she is going to be a massive price. However, my top pick is Blahnik. This filly has already had a couple of chances on turf, but I don’t think we have yet seen the best she has to offer. She performed poorly as the heavy favorite in her debut at Saratoga last summer, but it turns out that she’s a turf horse despite being a daughter of Bernardini. She ran much better than it seems in her second start, as she got involved in a torrid early duel, running off in the opening furlongs before fading. She showed her affinity for grass upon her return at Gulfstream in March, but she likely found the five-furlong distance to be too short for her. I like that she showed improvement on dirt last time, and I believe she’s now set for a career-best effort in the return to grass. There is not much speed signed on for this race, so I could envision Luis Saez attempting to steal this on the front end.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,9,12
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 6: HERSH (#1)
Potential favorite Payne has had trouble staying on the track, but has hinted at brilliance on occasion. He displayed an impressive turn of foot when rallying to victory in his maiden score last July, doing so against one of last summer's strongest maiden fields. He required another lengthy break after that but returned in top form 4 weeks ago. He was working out a good trip that day until he got pushed into the rail when attempting to rally inside of Tap Master at the eighth pole, forcing him to steady. It is worth noting that the rail was the place to be on May 10, and Payne may have benefited from racing inside for the majority of his trip. On the other hand, he undoubtedly would have won with a clear trip, and he’s formidable if able to maintain that form despite the relatively quick turnaround. His main rival may be Rowayton, a precocious runner who is attempting to recapture his stellar 2-year-old form. He flashed dazzling speed in the early stages of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer before succumbing to champion Game Winner late. He was bet down to 3-5 in his Arkansas return, but never seemed to take hold of the sloppy going while drifting out on the turn. He probably deserves a pass for that performance, but it remains to be seen if still possesses the brilliance that we saw last year. I’m trying to beat this pair with Hersh, who may get somewhat overlooked as he returns from a layoff. This chestnut colt was well-bet in debut last summer and ran to the support, overcoming some traffic to finish second behind today's rival Payne. He took a step forward in his second start, sweeping past a salty field with an impressive last-to-first flourish at Saratoga. He drilled impressively prior to his unveiling last year and appears to be working well again for this return. His one-run closing style could put him at a disadvantage from a pace standpoint, but this colt was seriously gifted at one time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 9: CRACK SHOT (#11)
Daring Disguise is a deserving favorite after rallying to be second behind his highly regarded stablemate Elektronic in his turf debut last time. This son of Verrazano does not have much dam-side turf breeding, but he showed a clear affinity for the new surface last time. My only reservation is that he returns at six furlongs. This horse strikes me as one who would prefer longer distances on grass, so I find it somewhat curious that Linda Rice is keeping him in sprints for now. That said, I’ll be surprised if horses like Wicked Grin and Qian B C are able to turn the tables on him. I’m more interested in some first-time turfers. One of those is Appointment, who returns from a layoff for Leah Gyarmati. She does not have strong statistics with turf runners, but this gelding is a full brother to two-time turf winner Analysis. I’m using him, but my top pick is the longshot Crack Shot. This colt showed very little in his debut last year, but he was very green and never seemed to handle the going. He actually had been entered in a race that was rained off the grass last year, so he was always meant for this surface. Now he returns in a turf sprint, and he’s bred to handle it as a full brother to Sardonyx out of a dam who is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Neck of the Moon. Over the past five years, Englehart is 3 for 6 ($4.65 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time in sprints off layoffs of 180 days or longer.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,6,8