by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 8 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 11 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 10 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 9 - 3
Race 9: 1 - 6 - 4 - 12
RACE 1: CHASINDAMONEY (#6)
Whiskey Run looks like the horse to beat off his improbable second-place finish at 100-1 odds in his turf debut. He can win, but last time was the time to have this one. The logical alternative is Wild Road, who makes his first start on turf for Dallas Stewart. He has a strong grass pedigree, as his dam was a four-time turf winner. He didn’t do much running in his career debut against open maidens on dirt. I’m using him, but the horse who intrigues me at a square price is Chasindamoney. Some may be deterred by the trainer switch, but Phil Serpe does a good job with his turf horses, and this runner showed some ability last year. He didn’t quite get seven furlongs two back when finishing behind the talented Barbarossa, and then last time, he ran well to be third after setting a strong pace in a race that was falling apart late. He returns as a gelding and has a right to step forward in his first start as a 3-year-old. He might fly under the radar in this confusing opener.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 2: PROFESSOR SNAPE (#5)
If Autostrade runs in a Saturday allowance instead, Bugle Notes becomes Todd Pletcher’s lone representative in this race. This expensive colt figures to take money following a visually impressive debut, but he will need to run significantly faster to take down this field. Given a relatively short price, I’d rather bet others. Professor Snape is clearly the one in the best form. He has put forth three consecutive strong efforts since Antonio Arriaga added blinkers on March 30. That day, he was justifiably put up to victory after dueling with Son of Mine. Next time, he was badly hampered at the start when he turned his head just as the gates opened. Thereafter, he was forced to race in an uncomfortable spot between horses and actually ran deceptively well to be second. He rebounded with a career-best speed figure when finishing behind the undefeated Breaking the Rules last time. He should be the clear favorite in this spot, yet he may offer value due to his low-profile trainer.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,7
RACE 3: COSITA MIA (#8)
This race is essentially a guessing game. The pair of Chad Brown fillies is likely to attract support, but they’re difficult to separate as they have been working in company at Monmouth, which is typically not where Brown keeps his top string. I want to take a shot with Cosita Mia. While Tom Albertrani rarely wins with his first time starters, this filly is not exactly representative of that bunch. She was training with Bob Baffert in California from late in her two-year-old season all the way through this March. For whatever reason, she never started in California, but she worked quickly while going in company with a few horses that have a bit of talent during that time. Now she shows up on the East Cast with Albertrani, who notably has won with two Don Alberto Stable first time starters during the past year. She’s got some pedigree to be quick, since she’s by Distorted Humor out of a daughter of undefeated juvenile champion Flanders.
Win: 8
RACE 6: EYEINTHESKY (#3)
Tijori is clearly the horse to beat off her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure debut, a very strong number for a two-year-old in May. The fourth place finisher returned out of that race to win next time out while earning a faster speed figure, so Tijori’s number clearly holds up. She seems like a deserving favorite, but wiring this field will be no easy task given all of the other speed signed on. Wesley Ward has two entrants, both of whom won their debuts in wire-to-wire fashion. Wonder Stone appears to be the more talented of the two after beating a solid group of males last time. One of the horses that she dueled into defeat returned to win the Kentucky Juvenile in his next start. I’ll use both of these, but the horse that looks best equipped to step forward and take advantage of an expected hot pace is Eyeinthesky. This Mark Casse trainee may not have been beating much in her first start, but she accomplished that win in impressive fashion. She was away somewhat awkwardly, and had to pause while racing in traffic heading into the far turn before angling to the far outside. Once in the clear, she quickly ranged up outside of horses to take command and draw off. I like the way she finished that race and she ran fast enough to suggest that she can be competitive here with another step forward.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7
RACE 7: DELECTATION (#7) / THUNDERING SKY (#4)
With the scratch of Lady Alexandra, Stormy Victoria becomes the horse to beat. The grey mare was negatively affected by a lack of pace in the License Fee, but I still thought she shouldn’t have had to work so hard to secure second considering her odds-on status. Seven furlongs is her best distance, but I’m starting to wonder if she’s lost a step as a 6-year-old. I see two viable alternatives to these short prices. My top pick is Delectation, who figures to move forward in her second start off the layoff for Wesley Ward. She tried males at Churchill Downs last time and couldn’t get rolling until very late in the stretch while going a distance that seems short of her best trip. She should appreciate the added ground of this race, and Ward’s runners have been firing on all cylinders. I’ll use her with Thundering Sky, who figures to be a square price. This filly had her fair share of bad trips in recent starts, most notably when she was unlucky to lose the Royal Heroine two back and was rank while racing on a dead rail at Churchill Downs last time. The turnback to sprint is a question mark, but she’s run well over this course in the past.
Win: 4,7
Exacta: 4,7 with 2,4,7,10
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4,10 with 1,2,3,4,10
RACE 9: EMMY PERFORMANCE (#1)
Chad Brown holds his typical strong hand in this race, as both of his second time starters appear to have some upside. The only that may attract more play is Competitionofideas, who finished a close fourth in her career debut going 6 furlongs last month. She had to weave her way through traffic that day and was finishing well at the end. The stretch-out shouldn’t pose a major issue. I’ll certainly use her, but her stablemate Compression is more intriguing. This filly got an awful trip in her debut at Gulfstream. She broke out at the start before rushing up to race extremely wide around both turns. She didn’t offer up much of a finish in the lane, but that’s understandable considering how much ground she lost. She should put forth a much better effort this time. I’ll use both, but the horse that I want to bet here is Emmy Performance. Considering this filly’s stellar pedigree, she didn’t take much money in her debut and she ran like a horse that needed a race. Rosario took her to the back of the pack early, waited for a long time, and then finally let her roll through the stretch. She was quickly passing horses at the end, but had been left with too much ground to make up. Notably, that was an exceptionally tough maiden field that she was facing – certainly of a higher caliber than the races either Chad Brown filly exits. Emmy Performance figures to step forward off that performance, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her placed a bit closer to the pace this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,6,12