PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 1A - 9
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 10:   2 - 6 - 5 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

This optional claimer only drew 5 runners, but it’s a competitive group. Chi Town Lady (#2) could go favored as she seeks to get back into top form second off the layoff. It was just three starts ago that she won the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga in a major upset. She didn’t perform at her highest level off the layoff last time and has a right to do better here. Yet her lack of early speed could be an issue in this compact field. Hot Fudge (#1) is one of two Linda Rice trainees in this race, and appears to be the stronger of the uncoupled pair. I thought she ran pretty well in her most recent dirt race at this distance, albeit with a good trip. I actually don’t mind her on turf, but she was competing in a tougher spot last time. This is more realistic and she figures to show speed from the rail. Mosienko (#3) could offer some better value going out for lower-profile connections. She put in a game effort to win going a mile two back, a distance that is probably slightly too far for her. I won’t hold her Vagrancy effort against her, as she actually did well to issue a challenge in upper stretch before fading. This is appropriate class relief, and she’s capable with her best effort. My top pick is the horse who figures to be the biggest price of the bunch. Beneath the Stars (#5) may get overlooked due to her slower speed figures. However, she’s run some nice races this year, including that optional claiming win back in February for which she earned a 102 TimeformUS Figure. She now returns from a brief layoff making her first start for Lacey Gaudet, who is 14 for 68 (21%, $3.19 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. This filly has to get 7 furlongs, but she’s quicker than the rest early and may be able to slow down the pace.

Fair Value:
#5 BENEATH THE STARS, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 3

I suppose Commandeer (#4) will attract plenty of support off his encouraging turf debut last time. He was facing a nice field and put in a strong rally to just miss. Horses have come back out of that race to run well, and he will be a handful if he repeats that performance. However, he’s meeting some quality rivals and is going to be a short price after getting dismissed at 31-1 last time. Main rival Cold Hard Cash (#3) has a better overall body of work, but he’s returning from a layoff while cutting back in distance. He ran well when last seen in the Red Smith, following a couple of losses to talented New York-bred City Man. He’s handled conventional route trips before, and is obviously a major threat. Dynadrive (#2)also competed in the Red Smith last fall, but he wasn’t suited by the race flow that day. He’s actually had a series of less than ideal trips, but is capable of winning a race like this when he's at his best. We saw some of his best form second off the layoff last year in the Lure, so perhaps he’ll be ready for a step forward while getting some class relief. My top pick is Royne (#1), who figures to be the biggest price of those I’m considering. This 5-year-old has compiled a pretty nice record competing over conventional flat turf courses. His two recent poor efforts came over the undulating Fair Hill course last October, and recently when he tried jumps in his first start for Keri Brion. That just didn’t seem to agree with him, so now it’s back to flat racing. He had attained some nice form for Michael Dickinson last year, and appeared to be improving at the end of the season. He’s returning in a tough spot, but he should be fit with that return behind him, and he figures to get somewhat overlooked.

Fair Value:
#1 ROYNE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

Brendan Walsh sends out a pair of 5-year-old mares in this optional claimer going 1 3/8 miles on turf. Ensemble (#3) figures to vie for favoritism as she drops in class out of a pair of Grade 3 events. She obviously had little chance against the likes of War Like Goddess last time, and two back she found herself in a race dominated by talented Chad Brown trainees. Prior to that she was an impressive winner going 12 furlongs on synthetic, so distance clearly isn’t an issue. She makes sense here, but I didn’t view her as one likely to offer value with Irad Ortiz in the irons. I do nevertheless prefer her to Walsh’s other runner Federalist Papers (#1), who comes off a layoff. She’s a plodding type who tends to be somewhat pace dependent, and there isn’t much speed signed on here. Christophe Clement has also entered two fillies. Shad Nation (#2) will likely take more money off her runner-up finish at this level last time behind Miss Yearwood, who returned to win a stakes at Churchill. She figures to play out as the pacesetter in a race that lacks early speed, and she might have some upside second off the layoff. I just wasn’t thrilled with the way she finished last time and preferred others. Clement’s other runner Parnac (#7) will be a much better price, and I think she’s one who might appreciate the stretch-out. She’s by a sire who is a good stamina influence, and her one-paced style could lend itself well to going longer. My top pick is Be Up (#4). She looks cheaper than the rest, moving up out of a $25k claimer. However, she was much the best that day, taking over with authority in the stretch. She had gone off form racing on synthetic prior to that, but she’s clearly a better turf horse. I also think she’s really going to appreciate stretching back out in distance. She made her career going 1 3/8 miles at Delaware in 2021 and obviously handled the distance that day. For whatever reason, she’s never tried a marathon since then, but she’s bred and composed like a horse that is supposed to love distance. She also has the tactical speed to work out the right trip in a race lacking pace. At a much bigger price, I would also use Peace Seeker (#5). She’s another who has had limited opportunities to contest marathon races but has handled these distances when she’s tried them. Some might argue that this 8-year-old’s best days are behind her, but she met a tougher field at the level last time and now gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Fair Value:
#4 BE UP, at 4-1 or greater
#5 PEACE SEEKER, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 7

The David Jacobson entry is expected to be reduced to a solo entrant with Cazadero entered to race on Friday. Runningwscissors (#1A) is the more logical half of this pair anyway, as he seeks his third victory in a row. Yet he’s gotten two absolutely perfect trips in those victories and is now facing a tougher field despite competing at the same level as last time. He’s also ridden by Irad Ortiz, basically ensuring that he’ll be a shorter price than he otherwise would be. His main rival is Outlaw Kid (#5), who I prefer at what could be a better price. This gelding put in two excellent efforts when he returned from a layoff last year, beating a good field at Saratoga before walloping allowance competition in his next start. He disappointed in the Carle Place, and then tried dirt, but now he’s returning in the right spot. There isn’t an abundance of early speed in this race, which could make Into the Sunrise (#6) dangerous. He faced a better field last time when chasing the classy Nothing Better before fading. Yet he typically runs well when he’s able to clear off on the front end, and that seems like a real possibility in this spot. I’m certainly using him at what should be a fair price. My top pick is Pine Knoll (#2), who can also be forwardly placed. This 5-year-old has to prove he can sprint, as he’s never raced this short before. However, he strikes me as one that will benefit from the turnback. He tends to race keenly in his route races before sometimes coming up wanting in the last furlong. He’s bred to sprint, being by City Zip out of dam who has produced sprinters, including the fast dirt sprinter Jackman. Recently he’s been displaying improved early speed in synthetic races at Turfway, and he appeared to hold his form after a trainer switch to Robert Medina in March. He drew well inside and should work out a good stalking trip.

Fair Value:
#2 PINE KNOLL, at 8-1 or greater
#6 INTO THE SUNRISE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this Grade 2 Wonder Again, sending out three fillies who all have solid chances. Revalita (#4) could go favored as she attempts to earn her first stakes victory in her third start in this country. She put in a deceptively strong effort in the Herecomesthebride, held up at the back behind a very slow pace before finishing best of all once set down in the lane. She might have been best that day, and she subsequently stepped forward in the Edgewood. That was arguably a tougher field than this one, and she ran well to close into another speed-dominated affair. She makes plenty of sense, and I prefer her to fellow French-bred Venencia (#1), who may attract some support with Irad Ortiz aboard. She completely botched the start when she returned from a layoff in Chad Brown’s stable last time at Keeneland, but did well to close for third thereafter. She obviously has talent, but this is a big step up in class and she may not be an enticing price. Spansive (#5) looks like the one to catch, as she attempts to lead this field throughout and earn her third victory in as many starts. She’s gotten favorable setups in both career starts, taking advantage of slow paces. However, she’s beaten some nice fields and runs like one that should have no trouble extending her speed to 9 furlongs. Some may view it as a negative that Jose Ortiz elects to stick with Revalita instead, but this filly should not be taken lightly. My top pick is Prerequisite (#7), who may be the biggest price of the Chad Brown trio. She finished far behind Spansive on debut at Gulfstream, but that race didn’t play to this filly’s strengths. She actually ran better than the running line makes it appear that day, as she was outrun early but was finishing strongly despite being compromised by a slow pace. She showed much better tactical speed when stretched out to this distance last time, stalking the pace before taking over in upper stretch. She opened up impressively before the gap was narrowed by Highland Grace, who came back to win last week. Her tactical speed should be an asset here and she’s already proven she gets the trip.

Fair Value:
#7 PREREQUISITE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10

I’ve seen enough of likely favorite Robyn and Eli (#5). She can obviously win, but she’s had her fair share of chances and usually disappoints at short prices. She was facing a tougher field last time, but she had nothing to offer in the stretch after advancing into contention on the far turn. Among the shorter prices, I prefer the lightly raced Daddyslilbosslady (#6). She debuted against a much tougher field at Gulfstream over the winter, out of which a few horses have returned to improve their speed figures. She was never a threat to win that day, but she stayed on well at the end like a horse that could handle a little extra distance. She’s certainly bred to be a turf sprinter, out of the exciting closer Rumble Doll, who won multiple sprint races on this circuit. She’s placed realistically off the layoff for Rob Falcone. My top pick at a much bigger price is Maggie (#2). This filly hasn’t gotten a chance on turf since she went two turns last September. Dismissed at a big price that day, she finished far back but never really had a chance to deliver a true effort. She was a little keen through the early stages and her rider was never able to tuck in behind runners, instead going 4-wide on the first turn before making an uncovered early move down the backstretch. She proceeded wide into the far turn before flattening out late. She subsequently improved on dirt, finishing a narrowly-beaten second when last seen in November. She deserves another chance on turf, being out of dam who won on grass and has produced a turf winner. She drew better this time, should appreciate sprinting on grass, and gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.

Fair Value:
#2 MAGGIE, at 10-1 or greater