by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   8 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   12 - 4 - 5 - 10
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 10 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   8 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   5 - 11 - 7 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: UP THE ANTE (#9)
Vegas Kitten obviously can win this race by merely repeating his Keeneland maiden win last time. However, these lightly raced Chad Brown runners are typically overbet, and I’m not interested in an extremely short price on a runner who does not merit that kind of support. There are other talented rivals in this spot. Zap Daddy ran very well in his debut before disappointing at Tampa last time. However, he may not have reacted well to running back on 16 days’ rest and deserves a second look here. The Queens Jules is not the type of horse I would typically go for, but Wesley Ward is 3 for 3 over the past five years with debut winners going from synthetic to turf in their second starts. He has a turf pedigree and ran deceptively well in his debut. I’m using both, but my top pick is Up the Ante. This horse has never actually crossed the wire in front in a race, and I think he could get somewhat ignored in this spot. His debut over this course last year was not nearly as bad as it seems, as he got a somewhat uncomfortable trip. The pace was quick, and he was not that far off it while racing in midpack. When commencing a rally at the quarter pole, he got caught in traffic and lost momentum, nullifying his chances. His subsequent start at Keeneland was a step in the right direction, and his only race since then was his dirt return last time. He has a right to improve on his juvenile form, and I believe he possesses more ability than he has shown. His trainer’s barn is cold right now, but it is bound to turn that around soon.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,8

 

RACE 3: DIPLODOCUS (#8)
Major Force is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his second start off a lengthy layoff. If he steps forward at all, he is unlikely to lose. However, progression is no guarantee given this runner’s history. He has been run cheaply throughout his racing career despite being an expensive yearling purchase, suggesting that issues are present. He’s the kind of horse you have to use but cannot fully trust. I have slightly more confidence in his main rival, Diplodocus, a deep closer who may find himself better suited to Belmont’s turf courses. His return from the layoff last time was not a bad effort considering that the pace held together and he never really got to save ground. Brad Cox puts blinkers on as he stretches out an extra sixteenth of a mile. If he gets a clear run, he should be tough to hold off. I prefer him to Cavallotto, who got an absolutely perfect trip in the same race last time.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,9

 

RACE 4: PECULIAR SENSATION (#12)
Every runner in this race appears to have some sort of flaw. The horse to beat is probably Forward Motion, who may end up the favorite. He’s run well in both of his turf starts. However, he did benefit from a dawdling early pace last time in a race where his stablemate, who finished third, may have actually put forth the better effort. Nevertheless, he cannot be dismissed. I think you also have to use Summer Mischief. While this gelding had plenty of chances last season, he had less-than-ideal trips on a number of occasions and is getting back to his best distance here. I’ll use both of them, but there’s a runner I want to bet at a price. Peculiar Sensation improved to run some of the best dirt races of his career this winter at Aqueduct before finally putting in a dull effort last time. He was claimed out of that race by Greg DiPrima and has been freshened up for this return to turf. While some might say that he’s cheaper than his main rivals in this race, he actually kept decent company in turf starts last year. He also had excuses in those races. He chased a fast pace that collapsed on Nov. 18, he couldn’t get a mile on Oct. 20, and he got caught in traffic while rallying on Sept. 9. If he can run back to his Sept. 30 effort going this distance, he’s a serious player. Furthermore, his improved early speed could be an asset in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,4,5,10

 

RACE 6: SPRING DRAMA (#3)
I’m not enamored with Theaterintheround, who is guaranteed to attract support for the Chad Brown barn off a dull third-place finish here last year. I actually prefer Brown’s other horse, the first-time starter Chestnut Street. This filly is a half-sister to Saratoga Snacks and by the solid turf influence Scat Daddy. Furthermore, Brown has outstanding numbers with first-time-starting New York-breds in turf routes. However, my top pick is Spring Drama, who is simply too logical for me to pass up. This filly really improved this winter at Tampa when stretched out to a mile, running two strong races against open company. She did so while in the barn of a trainer who wins at a low percentage, and she has since been privately purchased and transferred to Kiaran McLaughlin. It’s not as if he needs to improve Spring Drama much, if at all, to win this race, and she drew an advantageous inside post position for this distance. I prefer her to fellow speed New Pass, who must stretch out for the first time and overcome a problematic outside post position on the inner turf.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,7,10
Trifecta: 3 with 5,10 with 2,5,7,8,10

 

RACE 9: LA NATUREL (#5)
I’m usually not that excited about betting favorites in seemingly competitive races. However, La Naturel just appears to be the right filly to take here, and might offer value at odds of 5-2 or greater. It must be stressed that, while her published form already looks solid, both of her races are actually better than they seem. La Naturel was compromised by getting squeezed back at the start of her sprint debut, forcing her to rally from the back of the pack. Once clear in the stretch, she unleashed a strong late run in a race where no one else was making up ground. For her second start, she was stretched out to two turns and stepped up to maiden special weight company, and she put forth an effort that would clearly beat this field. The pace of that race was actually fast for the distance (indicated by red color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs), and La Naturel did well to hang on for third. The horse that she was chasing on the pace that day finished fourth, and that filly had previously run well against the talented Chad Brown filly Brattata in a February maiden race. Clearly, La Naturel is coming out of a much tougher field than the one she meets here. She has to prove that she can handle the turnback to a sprint, but her debut gives some hope and Wesley Ward has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 18 (28 percent, $2.41 ROI) with horses going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company in turf sprints.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,7,9,11,12