PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 8:   7 - 9 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   8 - 7 - 6 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I’ve seen enough of likely favorite Bourbon Chase (#6), who has continued to disappoint at short prices. He’s gone off at 2-1 or less in every start of his career, and remains winless in 6 attempts. He comes in with the best form, but runners like this aren’t for me, especially given a few viable alternatives. Squid Gamer (#2) ran pretty well in his lone start over a fast dirt track two back. That’s proven to be a strong race, as winner Olympic Dreams came back to beat allowance company in his next start. I think we could also see a better effort from Ormstown (#3), who didn’t get the best ride last time in a tough maiden event. He got shuffled back at multiple points in the race, including at a key point on the far turn when he steadied behind a tiring rival. He didn’t do much running in the lane, but was always out of position. This horse may have more to offer on the stretch-out, and he gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. My top pick is Morethanafeeling (#5), who also hasn’t gotten great trips in his recent starts. He got shuffled back on the far turn two back when attempting to hold rail position before coming on again late. Then last time his rider again tried to squeeze through on the inside at the quarter pole, and he got legitimately cut off before altering to the outside. He figures to benefit from the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, and I think he’s shown the ability to win at this level in those last couple of starts.

Fair Value:
#5 MORETHANAFEELING, at 7-2 or greater
#3 ORMSTOWN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 3

Dreams of Tomorrow (#3) makes some sense as the likely favorite in this compact field entered to go 1 1/16 miles on the turf. He was never in great position in the Appleton last time, floated wide on the far turn, which is rarely a winning trip at Gulfstream. He was in good form last year, and can be the type that needs a start coming off a layoff. I expect him to move forward here, but I also don’t totally trust him to get the job done at a short price. Daunt (#1) might have the most upside of anyone in this field as a newly turned 4-year-old who was in the best form of his career when last seen in the fall. Yet he really blossomed over marathon distances, and I’m skeptical that we’ll see his best effort off the layoff going shorter. My top pick is another 4-year-old returning from the layoff, St Anthony (#2). This Neil Drysdale trainee didn’t do anything particularly eye-catching last year, but he did hold his own against some solid rivals in stakes company. His Hill Prince effort over this circuit in October was pretty good, as he was right in the mix with some superior rivals until the late stages, having to take up right at the wire. I also thought he put forth a deceptively strong effort in the Hollywood Derby, making a wide move to challenge on the far turn before flattening out. This is a totally paceless affair, and I would expect Joel Rosario to seize the opportunity and send this gelding to the lead. He’s trained well for the return, and Drysdale usually sends live runners to this circuit.

Fair Value:
#2 ST ANTHONY, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4

Silver Skillet (#3) could be a pretty short price in this New York-bred allowance as she returns from a layoff, last seen smashing a group of maidens by over 14 lengths. A repeat of that performance definitely gives her a decent chance here, but it’s not as if she was beating much or even earned a particularly strong speed figure for that effort. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is just 4 for 36 (11%, $0.59 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs on the dirt over the past 5 years, so runners like this often need a start. I’m inclined to try and beat her, and I think there are two intriguing alternatives at prices. One of those is Scott Alaia (#6), who looked like she was getting in a prep going shorter last time when she returned in a dirt sprint for Michelle Nevin. It was a decent effort against cheaper company, where she was outrun to the lead but stayed on gamely at the end. She’s handled this distance in the past, albeit against cheaper, but this isn’t the strongest allowance event for the level. She’s also making her first start off the claim for Oscar Barrera, who is having a career-best season. My top pick is Liberty Flame (#4). She didn’t get the right trip last time when she made her first start off the claim for Jamie Begg. Romero Maragh tried to send her from the inside, but she got outrun to the lead and then reacted badly to sloppy kickback, essentially taking herself out of contention. She figures to have an easier time making the front end here on the stretch-out to a mile, and she’s run her best races when she can get clear early. Distance is obviously the major question mark, but she’s by good route influence Bellamy Road and seems like one that should be able to handle it.

Fair Value:
#4 LIBERTY FLAME, at 7-1 or greater
#6 SCOTT ALAIA, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t have a major knock against the two favorites in this $40k conditioned claimer. I do wonder where Loose Goose (#8) has been for the last couple of months after he was a vet scratch on Mar. 18 in a similar spot. He just got tired chasing a fast pace at the allowance level last time, and is probably a little too cheap for that condition. He’s dropping into a more appropriate spot, and Pletcher generally has good stats with horses like this making their first starts for a tag. Smoke and Heat (#2) is the other one who figures to attract support, and I don’t have too many knocks against him. He ran well at the starter allowance level two back, where he made a menacing move to the quarter pole before hanging late. That was going 9 furlongs, and he figure to appreciate the slight cutback. I would just be a little bit concerned about that closing style, since there isn’t that much speed signed on here. My top pick at a bigger price is a runner who can be more forward. Pressure (#7) has to prove that he can get this distance, having never raced beyond 6 1/2 furlongs. Yet I thought he ran pretty well at the allowance level two back when he made his first start off the layoff, switching to Rudy Rodriguez. He subsequently regressed last time, but I think his trip had a lot to do with that. He was guided right down to the inside by Jose Gomez on a day when you wanted to avoid the rail at all costs. He never looked comfortable predictably made little impact. He figures to get a better trip this time, and Rudy Rodriguez’s runners have started to run a little better than they had been in the last month.

Fair Value:
#7 PRESSURE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

Run Devil (#5) makes plenty of sense as he drops back down to a claiming race after climbing the class ladder in recent starts. She’s finished in the exacta in each of her last 4 starts, including at the N1X allowance level last time. She’s arguably caught some soft races for those levels, but does seem to keep improving with every start for George Weaver. Therefore this drop is a mild concern, especially at a short price now that her good form is totally exposed. The others who figure to take money are Greatest Love (#4) and Ok Honey (#6). Both go out for dangerous barns and can obviously win here, but the former has benefited from a series of great trips, whereas the latter just rarely finds the winner’s circle. I want to go in a different direction with Beautiful Karen (#2). The rail was probably not the best place to be when she faced off against Greatest Love in that Apr. 20 affair, and she was down inside for every step of her trip. I’m willing to forgive that result, and she didn’t even get the best ride or trip in her prior start on Apr. 13 when she was again towards the inside in a race that featured a pronounced outside flow. Now she’s had 3 weeks between starts and has been claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez, for whom she displayed improved form over the winter.

Fair Value:
#2 BEAUTIFUL KAREN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

Neither runner who figures to vie for favoritism in this New York-bred optional claimer appeals to me from a wagering standpoint. Hush of a Storm (#7) has run some solid speed figures that are supposed to make him tough at this level, but he just rarely wins and often isn’t finishing off his dirt races the way I would like to see. Aggregation (#1) looks a little more dangerous as he returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. Brown has better stats with these types on turf than he does on dirt, but this horse did show potential last year and will be tough if he builds on that prior form. I’m just more interested in a couple of bigger prices. My top pick is Daddy Knows (#4), who attempts to get back on track for the Ray Handal barn after a disappointing showing in his last effort. Yet he had some things working against him that day. The track was sealed, which just doesn’t seem to be his preference anymore. He also drew inside, which is always going to be a problem for a horse who has a propensity to lug out in his races. Actually, Daddy Knows hasn’t had much luck at the draw, having drawn the 1 or 2 post positions in 8 of his last 11 starts. The one time that he's drawn outside recently, he easily won with a strong speed figure on Feb. 26. I expect him to get a similar trip here with nothing but closers drawn to his outside. Katie Davis has ridden well for this barn, and I find it encouraging that there’s no alarming drop in class after that last effort. The other horse that I would use with him is Full Moon Fever (#5). Perhaps 9 furlongs was just a bit too far last time, and he also got a little too far back in the early stages. Prior to that, he got the wrong ride when used too aggressively to chase the pace. I think he’s better than that form indicates and might be able to pick up the pieces here if the aforementioned rivals don’t show up with their best performances.

Fair Value:
#4 DADDY KNOWS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

I’m inclined to take a stand against likely favorite My Sea Cottage (#1) in this starter allowance. This Mark Casse trainee was entered on Apr. 29 at Aqueduct in a 6-furlong event at this level, which got rained off the turf. I find it interesting that they’ve now instead targeted a race going much farther, 1 1/16 miles. He obviously brings strong form from Florida. However, he was struggling to finish off those last couple of races going a mile, so it’s fair to wonder if he really wants this extra distance. It’s also worth noting that he's had almost all of his success at Gulfstream Park, which is conducive to his style. Even though he looks formidable on paper, I have reservations and want to explore other options. Some may look to Timbuktu (#6) as a possible alternative, especially after Richard Dutrow, Jr.’s success with his first starter in 10 years last Saturday. However, this colt has all the hallmarks of a runner who will be overbet, given that angle and the addition of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. His turf races are decent, but he has to prove he can step up in class. I’m instead interested in a couple of Barclay Tagg trainees. Parquetry (#2) makes some sense based on his improving speed figures from last season. He was simply overmatched when last seen at the N1X level, but his prior efforts give him a chance and he usually flies under the radar. Yet I’m most intrigued by Tagg’s other runner. Shinsun (#7) also returns from a lengthy layoff, and Barclay Tagg’s numbers with this move are not the strongest. However, this gelding did win in his career debut last year, so we know he can perform when he’s fresh. That victory came at Belmont Park, and he produced a strong stretch rally from far back to get the job done. That style wasn’t as conducive to his subsequent starts, though he did run very well closing into a slow pace at Saratoga on July 23. Since then he got a couple of trips that just didn’t quite work out, but he was finishing well in all of those races. I love the way he’s been training for this in South Florida, appearing to do things very easily while usually going in company with Parquetry. This seems like a good spot for him off the layoff. Our Country (#9) is another runner who ships up from Florida and he was actually facing some tougher fields in those recent starter optional claimers. He caught a particularly tough group of rivals last time, so I can excuse him for failing to make much of a late impact. He appears to be heading in the right direction since the claim by Mark Hennig and owns prior races at NYRA that would give him a chance.

Fair Value:
#7 SHINSUN, at 4-1 or greater