PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 10 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 4 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: I LOVE JAXSON (#2)

#6 Croation is clearly the horse to beat as he drops precipitously following a fourth-place finish here last Saturday. That came at the $40k level and now he’s plunging down the class ladder to race for a $16k tag as his connections are basically begging anyone to take him off their hands. There are definitely some red flags here, though it’s not as if this horse ran that poorly here last weekend. It was a much tougher field and he probably wasn’t on the best part of the track trying to rally inside. He’s also never appreciated wet going, so getting back on a dry surface could really suit him. There are definitely some things to like, but he’s not the easiest to trust at a short price. Some may go to #1 Direct Order as the alternative, but I was hoping to see more from him in his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin. I’m more interested in #2 I Love Jaxson. This 7-year-old gelding comes with baggage of his own, but he does have back races that would make him pretty tough at this level. Trainer Jeffrey Englehart wasn’t winning at such a high rate when this horse was last racing for his barn. He doesn’t have particularly strong numbers off layoffs, but that may be irrelevant given the stable’s current hot streak. He returns with the claiming tag waived over a distance at which he’s won many times.

WIN: #2 I Love Jaxson, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 3: MANOLITO (#2)

I listed #3 Brilliant Brooks at even-money on the morning line and won’t be surprised if he goes off even lower than that. At a mere glance, he looks pretty formidable in this spot, but I think his form isn’t quite as strong as it appears. He caught a weaker field when he won for a $20k tag off the layoff in February, and heavy favorite Alcools failed to show up with one of his better efforts. It might appear that he ran well in the Peeping Tom last time, but he was never really a threat in that race, failing to back up the surprisingly strong tote support he received. This is an easier spot than that one, but I think he’s facing at least one rival who must be taken seriously. #2 Manolito is obviously a bit of a wild card as he returns from a layoff and switches into the barn of Bob Klesaris. Most of his prior races aren’t strong enough to defeat the favorite. However, without warning, he got very good last summer just prior to going to the bench. He ran particularly well in his 2021 finale over this track, in which he made a menacing move approaching the stretch before flattening out. That was a much tougher field at this level and he earned a strong 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, better than any number Brilliant Brooks has ever received. He must be ready off the layoff, but Klesaris is 3 for 13 (23%, $4.76 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs over the past 5 years.

WIN: #2 Manolito, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5: SHASTA STAR (#7)

I’m not wildly against the favorite in this race, but her price figures to drop following the scratch of the ML second choice. #1 Anonymously clearly has to rebound from her current string of poor results, but you can make some obvious excuses for her. She was simply going too far in those two route attempts, as she’s a pure sprinter. She didn’t run well in her lone turf sprint at Gulfstream this winter, but that was a stakes field. She’s getting class relief that she needs, but still has 9 seconds to go along with her 3 career victories, so it’s not as if she’s the most convincing win candidate regardless. I want to go in a different direction with #7 Shasta Star. This mare is as honest as they come, having won 8 times while hitting the board in 21 of 29 career starts. She always seems to show up with a good effort regardless of pace or trip. That’s even been the case with surface, as she seems to run over anything. For all that versatility, she’s made just one turf start during her career, which is surprising considering that it was one of her best races. She was a deceptively convincing winner of that one grass start back in 2020 at Kentucky Downs, powerfully striding away from a claiming field after setting the pace. Notably, that performance was vastly superior to her surrounding dirt form at the time. Now she’s trying grass again off a series of improved dirt races, and appears to have been claimed for this surface switch by Bob Klesaris and the new connections.

WIN: #7 Shasta Star, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6: WABAUNSEE (#7)

It’s difficult for me to trust any of the short prices in this maiden claiming affair. #4 Eventually could go favored by default, but Christophe Clement is 0 for 7 with first time starters in maiden claiming races on the dirt. I thought #1 Draw Off was awful in a depleted field when she tried the dirt off the layoff in march. #2 Crosstown Girl was a vet scratch from that race, but resurfaces here off the layoff for William Morey. Her last race in February was terrible, but she had shown competitive form prior to that and is a rebound candidate. I’m inclined to take a stand against #5 Eudaimonia, who got a great trip to finish second last time, riding the rail early for much of the way on April 21, a day that featured an inside bias. Therefore I’m left to get a bit more creative and #7 Wabaunsee fits the bill. She obviously did no running in her career debut, but that came on turf, a surface that she isn’t really bred to handle. We’ve seen Chris Englehart give horses turf preps before, and he’s 3 for 12 (25%, $2.54 ROI) going from turf to dirt with second time starters over 5 years. It’s not the strongest angle, but this isn’t a race where I need to be heavily persuaded to throw in a price.

WIN: #7 Wabaunsee, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: NUCLEAR OPTION (#3)

Half of the runners entered for turf are coming in off extended layoffs, including morning line favorite #5 Maxwell Esquire. This horse’s best race would make him pretty tough for this field to handle. He’s already beaten this allowance condition, which is why he’s competing for the $62,500 tag. I would think he’s a candidate to get claimed for that amount given his strong form from last season. He didn’t get the right pace setup in the Aqueduct Turf Sprint last time, and prior that did well to finish in a dead heat with today’s rival #1 Fauci. Both of these make sense as they launch their 2022 campaigns, but I don’t need either at relatively short prices off layoffs. The most reliable option with recency is #2 Artemus Citylimits, but I can’t pick this horse on top. He’s gotten good trips in more than a few of his recent starts and just can’t seem to seal the deal. He’s always right there in the stretch of his races, but too often settles for a minor award. That attribute was on full display last time when he appeared to have that Keeneland race won and just refused to go by the eventual winner. All of the aforementioned runners make sense, but they’re the three favorites and I want to get a little more creative. #3 Nuclear Option hasn’t tried turf that much during his career, but he has run well over grass on occasion. Among his turf performances are a couple of allowance wins at Arlington, one of which earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet what’s most interesting about him is this private purchase and trainer switch to Jamie Ness. He’s exiting a barn that was winning at a low percentage, and Ness has been having some newfound success outside the confines of Parx lately. Over the past 5 years, Ness is 8 for 30 (27%, $1.98 ROI) first off a trainer switch on turf, which is better than expected for a trainer known for his work with dirt horses. This gelding has tactical speed and figures to be a square price.

WIN: #3 Nuclear Option, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9: SWEET MAEVE (#5)

Morning line favorite #7 Out of Sight is clearly the horse to beat as she makes her second start off the layoff. She ran very well in her return last time, as she set a deceptively fast pace over a course that was rated firm but playing closer to good or yielding. She earned a strong 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that runner-up effort and anything close to that number could make her too tough for this field to handle. On the other hand, she’s had plenty of chances and will be a short price in a race where some others do have upside. #3 Pave My Way could attract some support for the hot Noda barn, but I wasn’t thrilled with her turf races last year. I picked #2 Sals Dream Girl when she was fourth at 30-1 last time, but I thought she got a perfect trip and would have to step forward as a 3-year-old. I think some of the more interesting new faces may be stretching out or trying this surface for the first time. I had originally picked #12 Succulent, but she is reportedly scratching from this spot. While the favorite moves up to my top pick, I’d want to use #5 Sweet Maeve at a bigger price. She figures to get ignored here going out for low-profile connections. She was meant for turf in her debut last year, but ran pretty well on the main track, overcoming a very slow start to make some progress midway before flattening out. She’s by decent turf influence Vancouver and returns as a 3-year-old with a chance to improve.

UPGRADE: #5 Sweet Maeve, at 14-1 or greater
USE: 7