by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 10 - 5 - 3
Race 5:   10 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   10 - 3 - 1 - 11
Race 7:   1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   4 - 1 - 3 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 5: HOME RUN MAKER (#10)
Square Shooter looked like a logical favorite in a race where so many rivals appear to be heading in the wrong direction, but he is now scratched. Among those whose form appears to be falling apart are Happy Farm and Copper Town. The former is perhaps more likely to rebound as he makes his first start off a trainer switch to Rob Atras, but this horse is still difficult to trust as an ex-Jason Servis trainee. Copper Town once would have dominated a field like this, but he’s been on a downward trajectory ever since that excellent runner-up performance to C Z Rocket last year. I prefer others. A logical alternative is T Loves a Fight. It’s been a long time since this likable 7-year-old gelding has tasted victory, having lost 17 straight races dating back to Oct. 2019. However, most of those starts have come against tougher company, and he’s finally getting some realistic class relief. He probably didn’t have his best chance last time when he was one of three horses to break open the starting gate prior to the start. His form has been pretty spotty over the past few months. However this barn has really been heating up lately, going 8 for 18 (44%, $3.68 ROI) in dirt races over the past 30 days. He also should finally get some pace to close into. I’m using him, but my top pick is Home Run Maker at what should be a generous price. Like some others, this horse needs quite the form reversal to have a say in the outcome here, as he faded badly when last seen in February. Yet that performance was too bad to be true, so something had to have gone wrong that day. He had some excuses for his prior starts, and now he makes his first start off the claim for Natalia Lynch, a former assistant to Jeremiah Englehart. That’s significant since Jeremiah Englehart had this horse for much of his career. The new connections are showing a great deal of confidence by moving up in class off the claim, and this horse is reportedly training well for his return.

Win: 10
Exacta Box: 2,10
 

RACE 6: BRUSH COUNTRY (#10)
There are many ways to go in this wide open $12.5k claimer, likely to be reduced to a 10-horse field after scratches, as three runners are also entered on Friday. I do know that I want to avoid the short prices, as I don’t think their likelihood of winning this race will be commensurate with their probable odds. Irad Ortiz is aboard Clear the Mine and Joel Rosario is riding Win With Pride, and it’s no secret that those two riders have been enjoying a high level of success so far at this Belmont meet. Yet, I have my doubts about Clear the Mine holding his form for Horacio DePaz after tailing off under Saffie Joseph’s care. And I want to see Win With Pride do it again after he unexpectedly woke up in the slop last time second off the claim for Orlando Noda. I acknowledge that both of these horses can win, but I believe others will offer better value. Among the shorter prices, I’m more willing to trust Eagle Pass, since he had an excuse for his lone poor effort two back, and his surrounding races, including his last win at Aqueduct, make him a logical contender here. Yet I’m most intrigued by some bigger prices. My top pick is Brush Country, who makes his first start off the claim for Jeffrey Englehart. This horse ran well at a slightly lower level two back, closing resolutely in the late stages to get up for second. He seemed somewhat interesting in the race Win With Pride won on Apr. 25, but he could never get involved. He was outrun early, and then ridden into traffic repeatedly through the stretch, as Kendrick Carmouche was basically unable to urge him for the final sixteenth. He’s better than that I think he can rebound here at a square price. At massive odds, I would even throw in Vicar’s Legend. I know it’s hard to trust a low-profile rider, but this gelding ran deceptively well last time against tougher company, making up ground along the rail to finish in a blanket photo for third. He’s probably not quite good enough to win, but he could pick up the pieces at a huge price.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 3,10 with 3,10 with 1,6,11,13
 

RACE 7: STAGE LEFT (#1)
There are some things to like about possible favorite Fort Worth, who is cutting back in distance as he returns from the layoff. Even though he broke his maiden going a mile, this horse is probably better off sprinting, so I won’t hold that loss going a mile last time against him. He was game to win two back after racing in tight quarters. He figures to be dangerous from a stalking position under Irad Ortiz. Scilly Cay is another New York-bred to consider in this open N1X allowance after he graduated out of his last state-bred condition last time. He ran well to win against a salty field, but he also got a great trip, stalking a very slow pace in a race that essentially turned into a quarter-mile sprint to the wire. I’m using him, but I prefer another. Stage Left makes his return from a layoff for Wesley Ward, who has decent statistics with this move among his older horses. He consistently ran well last year, winning a couple of starts on this circuit. While he lost both of his attempts at this N1X level, he got a very wide trip at Saratoga on Aug. 1 and then again found himself taking the overland route at Keeneland in the fall while no match for the talented Silver State. I think he’s capable of breaking through at this level with the right trip, and this time he figures to be forwardly placed from the rail under John Velazquez. He appears to be working forwardly for his return, and he’s run well off layoffs in the past.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 7 with 2,3,4,5
 

RACE 8: KLICKITAT (#5)
I suppose Good Old Boy could go favored as he returns to New York-bred company after facing open rivals during the winter at Gulfstream. However, this is not the kind of horse that I would recommend betting at any kind of short price. He’s already a candidate to be overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard, and I felt that he was facing some weaker fields when he competed in New York last year. I didn’t see him do much running against starter allowance foes last time, and I’m just not convinced he’s good enough to win at this N2X level. I strongly prefer his main rival Klickitat, who returns from a layoff and gets back to his preferred surface. They took a shot on dirt last time to see what he might do over the winter, and the experiment failed. However, his prior tur form was pretty strong. He improved a great deal through the fall, defeating Good Old Boy on Sep. 5 before running a career-best race to just miss in a photo with the talented Graded On a Curve in October. He lost at the open N1X level thereafter when skipping a condition, but he even ran better than it looks in that spot. He was much too close to a fast pace and actually did best of the horses involved in that pace despite his rider overcommitting to the rail path. As long as he returns in decent fitness, I think he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. I could also use a runner like Step Dancer, but I think it remains to be seen how good this 3-year-old actually is. He clearly relished the boggy going when he won the Awad last year and his surrounding performances aren’t nearly as good. At a big price, I’m actually somewhat intrigued by El Hermano getting back on turf. His recent form since returning from a layoff is abysmal, but he was eased last time and might appreciate getting back on the surface over which he once broke his maiden. There isn’t much speed signed on here and he figures to be leading them early under dangerous front-running rider Jose Lezcano.

Win: 5
Exacta Box: 5,7
Trifecta: 5 with 6,7,8 with 6,7,8
 

RACE 9: THE GREAT GAZOO (#4)
Among those with turf experience, I suppose Saratoga Flash and Fast Gordon make a certain amount of sense, but I’m not particularly thrilled with either one at a short price. The former may appreciate going shorter, and will be dangerous if he translates his route for to this turf sprint. However, turnbacks are rarely a good bet on turf and he didn’t have much excuse to lose at a short price last time. Fast Gordon will take money on the basis of his narrow loss going this distance last September, but he was facing a weaker maiden claiming field that day. His speed figures put him in the mix, but I don’t trust him off the layoff. I’m more interested in Linda Rice’s other runner Feathers Road. This colt finished last in his dirt debut at Aqueduct, but he actually did some running in that race. He showed good early speed while chasing the pace before fading along the rail in the stretch. He’s bred to move up on the turf as a son of Quality Road out of a dam who was a turf stakes winner. Linda Rice does better with her second time starters on dirt, but she’s always dangerous in this situation. My top pick is a horse with a similar profile who could be a better price. The Great Gazoo also makes his turf debut as he ships in from Parx. Malibu Moon isn’t a terrible turf influence, and his dam was a pretty decent turf horse. Her one other foal handled this surface without winning, but this one seems like a candidate to take to it. He showed some speed in his last start at Parx in a race that featured a quick pace, and the runner-up returned to run much faster in his subsequent start at Belmont. Furthermore, it seems like a good sign that Joel Rosario takes the mount for these out-of-town connections.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 1,4