by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 3: 1A - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 8 - 9 - 13 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 10 - 8
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 2 - 3 - 10
RACE 1: ALPHADORA (#1)
This maiden event only drew six runners, but it’s a highly competitive affair in which all of the participants are within a few points of each other on the morning line. Alphadora may go off as the lukewarm favorite, and I’m not trying to beat this filly. While she’s had more chances than a number of her rivals, I still believe she has further improvement in her. She ran deceptively well in her first couple of starts, racing wide against a rail bias in her debut before closing belatedly after a wide trip in her second outing. She seemed ready to put it all together in her third appearance when stretched out to today’s one-mile trip. However, an overly aggressive ride cost her the victory. She was racing keenly with blinkers on for the first time, and Hector Diaz allowed her to run off on the front end, setting a fast pace for the distance. She ultimately paid the price as she got leg-weary in the last furlong, yet she still might have won had Diaz been aware of a rival closing up the rail. She was placed too ambitiously against stakes company last time, and she may not have handled a sloppy track. Now she stretches back out to the distance at which she ran her best race, and I have to believe that Diaz will be a more patient passenger this time. Her main rivals are second-time starters, but I’m not convinced that they possess Alphadora’s quality. Champayne was wide against a rail bias in her debut, but she was not facing a strong field and will have to improve. Amos makes her first start against New York-bred company after running on belatedly in her sprint debut at Keeneland. I’ll use both as the primary backups.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 8: SEED MONEY (#1)
I suppose Lutsky is the horse to beat in this spot, but you have to be somewhat troubled by his most recent outing. Sent off as the close 6-5 second choice, he was in deep water by the time they hit the half-mile pole and readily gave way in the stretch. It’s likely that he didn’t appreciate the stretch to a mile, or the sloppy track. Yet, if it was the distance that did him in, you have to be somewhat concerned about today’s 7-furlong trip. He doesn’t appear to be a horse who possesses much stamina, though he is likely to be in front in the early stages of the race. His main rivals are Ro Bear and Freudnme. The former is not a runner who interests me in this spot. Ro Bear is better going a mile or farther and has routinely underperformed in sprint events. Freudnme is more intriguing off his encouraging debut. He did well to race into contention on the backstretch after breaking a couple of lengths behind the field. That race earned a respectable speed figure, but I’m not sure that he was beating a group of high quality. Nevertheless, he is one that must be used. I think this race is open to many contenders, so I want to take a shot with the longest price of those. Seed Money fits with this field based on his maiden score two back. He earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day, which is one of the highest recent numbers in this field. He showed good speed from the rail and gamely held off the talented Red Zinger, who has gone on to record faster speed figures in subsequent starts. Seed Money’s last race was a disaster, but he is probably a horse who strongly dislikes sloppy, sealed tracks. He gets back on fast going this time, and the lack of early speed in this race should ensure that he’s forwardly placed under Rajiv Maragh. If he’s anything close to his 15-1 morning line, he’s one that I want to bet.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5